The Reminder of The Knowns of The Unknown
Two positions in the market after a race
Someone on the financial markets once said there’s only two positions;
Too much or not enough.
And we all know that feeling post race with the latter often the immediate emotion following a winning race. (EG shouldda had more on!)
However after ICONOCLASM stuffed up the start at Flemington and almost certainly costing himself the race, the former was of course the feeling if you were one of many on the well backed favourite, because that was totally unexpected.
Favourite Iconoclasm misses the kick in R8. pic.twitter.com/djr8fKPTRY
— Racing.com (@Racing) June 8, 2019
ICONOCLASM at -6.8 lengths below benchmark to the 800 on Vince’s IVR platform was the clear slowest he has gone in his 18 start career.
Winner BLAZEJOWSKI produced +1.4 lengths above benchmark, and ICONOCLASM 3rd up last prep – he was 3rd up here – was +5.4 lengths above benchmark after going +5.1 to the 800.
He had to be WELL below his best to NOT win IF he jumped cleanly.
And he didn’t.
But what needs to be underlined as the reminder is that while it was totally unexpected that ICONOCLASM would bound in the air at the start given he’d never done it before, it isn’t unexpected that something can go wrong in a horse race because… it’s a horse race!
When you hear something is a “certainty” the caveat of course if the statement is accurate based on ability only – let’s say with WINX who was always a certainty on pure talent – but anyone with that “certainty” mindset is in for tears at some stage and probably sooner rather than later.
WINX never “taught” any punter that lesson once the streak started, but oh golly it was close when first up in August 2017 for those who took the $1:10!
So ICONOCLASM last Saturday taught us what WINX never did…
This week’s apples to apples comparison for your head to roll off with.
View last weeks apples to apples here.
SURE KNEE was super getting beaten narrowly by FIDELIA 18/05
https://www.racing.com/form/2019-05-18/flemington/race/6
Then last Saturday seemingly a plain 6th also Flemington over a mile
https://www.racing.com/form/2019-06-08/flemington/race/9
In the first race she was going -0.2 to the 800, then +2.7 in the mid race.
Last Saturday she was going -12.1 to the 800 then +1.2 in the mid race.
So even though she was last on the turn on each occasion, her first 1200 metres was 12.6 lengths slower last Saturday, but her mid race exertion was 10.9 lengths more from the 800 to 400.
That HAD to completely blunt her finish and while listed as lame post race, the different shape meant she had no chance.
If the injury is minor don’t be surprised if she bounces back hard.
“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”
