Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump
Since the Biden administration decided it was best for the current president to step out of the running in the 2024 presidential campaign, Kamala Harris has taken the front foot to give the Democratic Party the best chance of holding the White house, however, Donald Trump is once again in the spotlight as he stands as the one and only main contender for the Republican Party.
Harris vs Trump Odds
Once again, Trump is the outsider in the presidential race.
But not by much.
Harris $1.77 vs Trump $2.00 (Current Ladbrokes odds – September 18th 2024)
This equates to a 49.76% implied win probability of Kamala Harris taking home the bacon (and the pretty white house in D.C), while Donald Trump holds a close 44.04% so at this point in time it really is anyones race.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris, the Vice President of the United States, has had a long and impactful career in public service. She made history as the first woman, first Black American, and first South Asian American to hold the position of Vice President.
Prior to that, she served as a U.S. Senator and Attorney General of California, focusing on fighting for civil rights, criminal justice reform, and environmental justice.
Throughout her career, she has championed issues like women’s reproductive rights, gun safety, and economic recovery, and has been a key player in the Biden administration’s efforts to pass landmark legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is a businessman and media personality who has remained a dominant figure in American politics. After leading the family real estate business and hosting The Apprentice, Trump entered politics, winning the 2016 presidential election as the Republican nominee.
His presidency was marked by populist and nationalist policies, including a travel ban on several Muslim-majority countries, tax cuts, environmental rollbacks, and trade wars. He was impeached twice, acquitted both times, and remains a polarising figure.
Despite losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, Trump continues to lead the Republican Party and is the nominee for the 2024 presidential race, even as he faces multiple legal challenges, including criminal convictions and indictments related to his business dealings and efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
Win Probabilities of Main Runners
- Kamala Harris: 49.76%
- Donald Trump: 44.04%
Win Probabilities of Other Runners
While Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are the primary contenders, the 2024 election features several other political figures who could influence the outcome or benefit from unexpected developments. Below are the current win probabilities of the other potential candidates, though their chances are slim compared to the frontrunners:
- J.D. Vance: 0.87%
As a rising figure in the Republican Party, Vance’s chances are minimal unless major shifts in the Republican primary occur. His popularity in Ohio could bolster his future prospects. - Tim Walz: 0.87%
The Minnesota Governor has maintained a solid reputation in his state, but his national presence remains limited. He’s more of a long-shot for the 2024 election, but a viable candidate in future races. - Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 0.58%
Running as an independent, Kennedy has drawn attention for his unconventional campaign. However, his low support in polling suggests he’s unlikely to make a significant impact on the overall race. - Nikki Haley: 0.44%
A former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, Haley is often discussed as a potential vice-presidential pick. Her chances of securing the presidency in 2024 are slim unless the Republican race dramatically changes. - Ron DeSantis: 0.29%
Once considered a strong contender, DeSantis’s influence has waned due to the dominance of Trump in the Republican field. However, with a 0.29% chance, there remains a possibility of a resurgence if Trump’s legal troubles escalate.
Novelty Election Bets
Along with the parties who hold a chance of winning, there are plenty of other celebrities that punters are able to place a bet on (though we do not suggest doing so).
- Mark Zuckerberg: 0.18%
- Elon Musk: 0.18%
- Kanye West: 0.09%
- Meghan Markle: 0.09%
- Tucker Carlson: 0.09%
- Joseph Foreman (Afro man): 0.09%
The Historic 2016 Election Betting Market
The 2016 US Election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump became the biggest betting market in history, with nearly $400 million traded on Betfair. Trump was the outsider but ultimately won, marking one of the biggest political upsets ever. This event reshaped the political betting landscape.
At $1.20 Hillary Clinton was the absolute firm favourite on the night with Donald Trump seated as a solid underdog at $4.50, this equaled a 78.97% chance of Hillary Clinton taking the election win with Donald Trump holding a 21.03% chance.
This was followed by the 2020 election in which Biden successfully overturned Trump only to later step down from the 2024 Presidential election due to his obvious age related issues and incapacity to hold a debate.
So what does that mean for 2024?
Best Resources
Before we share our tips, these are the resources we recommend checking in with each week:
The best places to bet on the Election are Betfair or Ladbrokes.
Betfair has the best odds and Sportsbet has lots of fun side markets.
Who To Back?
The smart money is on Trump. While the odds are currently not in his favour in 2024 because of all the news headlines he has made in the past 4 years, there will be a significant downturn in odds the closer we get to election night.
Currently Trumps odds are at $2.00, however we are expecting his odds to drop in the coming month which we are expecting to reach around $4.00 in the few days prior to voting.
While Harris does have better odds at $1.77, these odds will likely shorten, however, we can’t ignore the following that Trump has, Trump will likely win a number of key states, and with the odds currently so close, our bets are on the slight underdog.
If you are planning to bet on the presidential election, it is highly suggested to monitor the odds in the lead up to the election.
Betting Strategies for 2024
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most dynamic in recent history, and betting opportunities abound. Here are a few key strategies to keep in mind as election day approaches:
1. Monitor Swing State Odds
One of the best ways to capitalise on election betting is to focus on swing states. States like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona will be critical in deciding the election, and odds for these can fluctuate significantly as polling data evolves. Betting on state-specific outcomes offers a more controlled risk compared to betting on the overall winner.
2. Hedge Your Bets
Given how close the race is between Harris and Trump, hedging your bets can be a smart move. If you back Harris early on, consider placing a smaller, secondary bet on Trump as the odds shift closer to election day. This ensures you minimise losses regardless of the outcome.
3. Pay Attention to Legal and Political Developments
With Trump facing ongoing legal challenges and Harris navigating the complexities of a post-Biden Democratic ticket, these external factors can sway voter opinion quickly. Be prepared to adjust your bets if a major legal or political event occurs—such as an indictment, health issue, or policy scandal.
4. Watch for Early Voting Trends
Early voting data can provide insight into voter turnout, which often influences last-minute market moves. If early voting patterns suggest strong Democratic or Republican turnout in key states, adjust your bets accordingly. This can be especially useful when betting on the Electoral College rather than the popular vote.
