Australian Open Betting Predictions Day 3

2025 Australian Open Tennis Predictions Day Three

Day three of the 2025 Australian Open brings us a a typical Aus Open Summer heat, with temperatures floating into the high 20’s and the afternoon sun beating down on the players and fans, there are a few interesting games today, however we will take a look at three which we have found a betting edge and value opportunity for.

Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!

Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima

Tuesday, January 14, 2025 4:15 AM

Predicted Final Score

Win Percentages

 

The Betting Edge:

1. Odds Comparison:
   • Bookmaker’s Odds (Shelton 67.57%, Nakashima 38.46%) overvalue Shelton compared to our calculated probabilities.
   • Nakashima’s odds reflect slight value with an implied probability of 38.46% against a calculated 40%.
2. Set Betting & Margins:
   • Close sets are highly likely based on previous matches, with tiebreaks a key factor. Odds for Over 43.5 games (1.91) and a 5-set match (3.00) present value in a potentially extended match.
   • Shelton’s -2.5 game handicap (1.80) is marginal but achievable based on his edge in hard court consistency.

Value Opportunity:

• Straight Winner Market:
  • Not recommended
• Set Betting & Totals:
  • Likelihood of 4-5 sets makes Over 43.5 games (1.91) a favourable choice.

Recommendation:

• Risk-averse bettors: Avoid outright betting due to Shelton’s marginal overvaluation and tight head-to-head results.
• Speculative bettors:
  • Over 43.5 games (1.91) offers strong value for a closely contested match.

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Anna Bondar vs Yafan Wang

Tuesday, January 14, 2025 11:15 AM

Predicted Final Score

Win Percentages

 

The Betting Edge:

1. Odds Comparison:
   • Bookmakers slightly overvalue Bondar (54.05% implied probability vs 46% calculated).
   • Wang’s odds reflect near parity with her calculated probability (51.55% implied vs 54% calculated).
2. Set Betting & Totals:
   • A three-set match (2.38) is likely, considering the players’ straight-set win rates.
   • Over 21.5 games (1.83) offers value given Bondar’s tendency for close sets and tiebreaks.

Value Opportunity:

• Straight Winner Market:
  • Wang (1.94) is slightly undervalued, making her a stronger speculative pick for the win (especially given her stronger hard court skills).
• Set Betting & Totals:
  • Over 21.5 games (1.83) presents good value, with close sets likely based on Bondar’s higher tiebreak occurrence and both players’ performance metrics.

Recommendation:

• Risk-averse bettors: Bet on Over 21.5 games (1.83) for a safer option reflecting a tightly contested match.
• Speculative bettors: Back Yafan Wang to win (1.94) as she holds an edge in consistency and hard court performance.

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Taylor Townsend vs Renata Zarazua

Tuesday, January 14, 2025 6:15 AM

Predicted Final Score

Win Percentages

 

The Betting Edge:

• Odds Comparison:
  • Taylor Townsend: Bookmaker’s implied probability (56.18%) is close to our calculated probability (58%), indicating fair value.
  • Renata Zarazua: Bookmaker’s odds undervalue her slightly, suggesting her implied probability (49.50%) is higher than our calculated 42%.
• Set Betting Odds:
  • Townsend to win 2-0 (2.70) shows potential, given her higher straight-set win percentage.
  • Zarazua 2-0 (3.00) could hold value for risk-takers, as she has shown higher winning margins.

Value Opportunities:

• Taylor Townsend:
  No significant value in betting at 1.78, as the bookmaker odds closely align with the calculated probability.
• Renata Zarazua:
  A small speculative bet on Zarazua (2.02) may hold value if you expect her to capitalise on her higher margin victories.

Set Total Bets:

• Over 21.5 games (1.83): Reasonable value, as both players tend to play sets averaging 9.4 games.
• Straight sets (1.53): Favours Townsend given her reliability stats, but lacks significant value.

Recommendation:

• Risk-averse bettors: Avoid betting, as there’s limited clear value in this matchup.
• Speculative bettors:
  • Consider a small bet on Zarazua (2.02) as an underdog.
  • Alternatively, Townsend 2-0 (2.70) presents moderate value if you expect a dominant performance.

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Todays Australian Open Multi