2025 Australian Open Tennis Predictions Day Two
Day two of the 2025 Australian Open brings us a stark reminder of how crazy the weather is for the tennis at the AO, with cloudy temperatures floating in the late 20’s, it appears as the the players will get a break from the sweltering sun once again today which should in turn improve player performances and change the way they play their games.
Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex Michelsen
Monday, January 13, 2025 11:15 AM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- Bookmaker’s Odds Analysis:
- Tsitsipas’ implied probability (64.52%) slightly exceeds our calculated probability (62%), indicating limited value in betting on Tsitsipas outright.
- Michelsen’s implied probability (35.48%) is marginally lower than our estimate (38%), suggesting a slight undervaluation by bookmakers.
- Value Bets:
- Tsitsipas to win 3-1 (4.20) offers value given his tendency to drop a set against emerging players who push him early.
- Over 39.5 games (1.85) is a solid option, reflecting the likelihood of Michelsen’s competitive edge forcing longer sets or multiple sets.
Recommendation:
- Risk-Averse Bettors: Bet on Over 39.5 games (1.85), which provides a safe approach given the probability of a four-set or competitive three-set match.
- Speculative Bettors:
- A small wager on Tsitsipas to win 3-1 (4.20) offers good value considering his historical patterns against rising players.
- Alternatively, Michelsen (+3.5 games, 1.80) could be worth a look if you anticipate a tightly contested match.
Alexandre Muller vs Nuno Borges
Monday, January 13, 2025 1:15 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- Bookmaker’s Odds Analysis:
- The bookmaker’s odds slightly favour Nuno Borges with an implied probability of 57.80%, which is marginally higher than our calculated probability of 55%.
- Alexandre Muller’s implied probability (47.62%) aligns closely with our 45%, offering limited value.
Value Opportunity:
- True odds for Muller (based on a 45% probability): Approximately $2.22.
- Current odds of $2.10 undervalue Muller slightly but do not present significant value.
- True odds for Borges (based on a 55% probability): Approximately $1.82, which aligns well with the offered $1.73.
Set Betting:
- A Nuno Borges 3-1 victory at $4.60 offers a reasonable balance of risk and reward if you predict him to dominate but concede a set.
- A Muller 3-2 victory at $6.50 represents strong potential value in the event of an extended match.
Recommendation:
- Risk-averse bettors: A bet on Over 38.5 games at $1.75 is a low-risk option given the evenly matched players.
- Speculative bettors:
- Alternatively, a Muller 3-2 victory at $6.50 offers significant value for a high-risk, high-reward play.
- Borges 3-1 at $4.60 is also worth consideration if you expect him to win comfortably after a competitive start.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti
Monday, January 13, 2025 3:15 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
The bookmaker’s odds suggest a significant edge for Lorenzo Musetti (62.50%), but our analysis indicates a closer matchup with Musetti at 55%. This suggests Matteo Arnaldi (2.30) offers slight value for speculative bettors.
- Bookmaker’s Odds Analysis:
- True odds for Arnaldi (based on 45% probability): $2.22. Current odds of $2.30 represent a marginal value opportunity.
- True odds for Musetti (based on 55% probability): $1.82. Current odds of $1.60 undervalue Musetti, making him less appealing for bettors.
Recommendation
Risk-Averse Bettors: Avoid betting, as there’s limited edge on Musetti and only a marginal edge on Arnaldi.
Speculative Bettors: A small wager on Matteo Arnaldi (2.30) could be worthwhile given the implied probability discrepancy and his strong 2024 hard-court form.
Additional Wagering Considerations:
- Over 37.5 games (1.80): Both head-to-head matches in 2023 exceeded this total, and the matchup appears evenly poised.
- Correct Score 3-2 (Arnaldi 6.50, Musetti 5.75): High odds for a five-set match reflect the potential for a tightly contested battle.
Todays Australian Open Multi
