Day fourteen of the 2025 Australian Open promises exciting tennis under partly cloudy skies. Light winds will shift to a southerly breeze of 15–25 km/h by early afternoon, adding a subtle dynamic to the matches. Temperatures will range from 15°C to 25°C, settling around a comfortable 20°C to 22°C during game time—ideal conditions for both players and spectators alike.
With stars like Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys in action, the mild weather offers the perfect backdrop to fine-tune your Australian Open tips and spot value opportunities. The cooler conditions are sure to keep the players sharp and energised as the Australian Open Women’s Finals arrive on centre court at Rod Laver Arena.
Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys
Saturday, January 25, 2025 7:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
Head-to-Head and Performance Insights:
- Head-to-Head Record:
- Aryna Sabalenka leads 4-1 in their last 5 encounters.
- Their most recent match (October 2024, Beijing): Sabalenka won comfortably in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3.
- Keys’ only win came back in June 2021 on grass (Berlin).
- Season Stats (2025):
- Sabalenka: 11-0 match record, 100% win rate, winning an average of 5.9 games per set with a margin of +5.5 games per match.
- Keys: 13-1 match record, 92.9% win rate, winning an average of 5.5 games per set with a margin of +4.3 games per match.
- Hard Court Record (2025):
- Both players have strong form, with Sabalenka holding an 11-0 record and Keys at 13-1.
- Consistency & Form:
- Sabalenka has a higher straight-sets win percentage (81.8%) compared to Keys (46.2%).
- Keys has struggled to convert in tiebreaks, with a win rate of 66.7%, whereas Sabalenka is perfect at 100%.
The Betting Edge:
The bookmaker’s implied probability heavily favours Aryna Sabalenka at 75.76%, aligning closely with our calculated probability of 73%. Madison Keys, at an implied 29.41%, reflects slight undervaluation but not enough to present a clear betting value.
Key Observations:
- Sabalenka’s dominance in straight sets and her recent 6-4, 6-3 win over Keys are strong indicators of her likely performance.
- Keys’ odds for a comeback win (7.00 for a 2-1 victory) highlight her potential for resilience but offer limited confidence based on head-to-head history.
Value Opportunity:
Suggested Bets:
- Risk-averse bettors:
- Back Aryna Sabalenka to win straight sets (1.80 for 2-0).
- Sabalenka to cover the -3.5 game spread (1.65).
- Speculative bettors:
- If expecting a closer contest, Madison Keys (+3.5 games) at 2.15 offers slight value.
- Keys to win a set (1.91) may hold value for those betting on an extended match.
Scoreline Value:
- Sabalenka winning 6-3 or 6-4 has potential at 3.90 and 6.25, respectively.
Recommendation:
- Best Bet: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 (1.80).
- Alternative: Sabalenka to cover -3.5 games (1.65).
- Avoid: Heavy wagers on Madison Keys given her lower consistency against Sabalenka and head-to-head struggles.
Todays Australian Open Multi
Sabalenka 2-0 Set Betting ($1.80)
Sabalenka 6-3 Set 1 ($4.10)
2 Sets ($1.44)
Total: $6.35 with Bet365
