Day thirteen of the 2025 Australian Open promises exciting tennis under mostly sunny skies. A slight chance of morning showers will clear by the afternoon, with a strong southerly breeze of 25–40 km/h adding a strategic twist to the matches.
With stars like Aryna Sabalenka, Madison Keys, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner, and Ben Shelton in action, the weather creates perfect conditions to refine your Australian Open tips and identify value opportunities. Temperatures will range from 14°C to 23°C, with improving conditions as the day progresses, no one likes a hot one, so these cooler conditions make it optimal for all players.
Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys
Friday, January 24, 2025 10:00 AM
Predicted Final Score
6-3 : 6-4
Win Percentages
Sabalenka 73.00%
Keys 27.00%
Head-to-Head and Performance Insights:
- Head-to-Head Record:
- Aryna Sabalenka leads 4-1 in their last 5 encounters.
- Their most recent match (October 2024, Beijing): Sabalenka won comfortably in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3.
- Keys’ only win came back in June 2021 on grass (Berlin).
- Season Stats (2025):
- Sabalenka: 11-0 match record, 100% win rate, winning an average of 5.9 games per set with a margin of +5.5 games per match.
- Keys: 13-1 match record, 92.9% win rate, winning an average of 5.5 games per set with a margin of +4.3 games per match.
- Hard Court Record (2025):
- Both players have strong form, with Sabalenka holding an 11-0 record and Keys at 13-1.
- Consistency & Form:
- Sabalenka has a higher straight-sets win percentage (81.8%) compared to Keys (46.2%).
- Keys has struggled to convert in tiebreaks, with a win rate of 66.7%, whereas Sabalenka is perfect at 100%.
The Betting Edge:
The bookmaker’s implied probability heavily favours Aryna Sabalenka at 75.76%, aligning closely with our calculated probability of 73%. Madison Keys, at an implied 29.41%, reflects slight undervaluation but not enough to present a clear betting value.
Key Observations:
- Sabalenka’s dominance in straight sets and her recent 6-4, 6-3 win over Keys are strong indicators of her likely performance.
- Keys’ odds for a comeback win (7.00 for a 2-1 victory) highlight her potential for resilience but offer limited confidence based on head-to-head history.
Value Opportunity:
Suggested Bets:
- Risk-averse bettors:
- Back Aryna Sabalenka to win straight sets (1.80 for 2-0).
- Sabalenka to cover the -3.5 game spread (1.65).
- Speculative bettors:
- If expecting a closer contest, Madison Keys (+3.5 games) at 2.15 offers slight value.
- Keys to win a set (1.91) may hold value for those betting on an extended match.
Scoreline Value:
- Sabalenka winning 6-3 or 6-4 has potential at 3.90 and 6.25, respectively.
Recommendation:
- Best Bet: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 (1.80).
- Alternative: Sabalenka to cover -3.5 games (1.65).
- Avoid: Heavy wagers on Madison Keys given her lower consistency against Sabalenka and head-to-head struggles.
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev
Friday, January 24, 2025 2:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
6-4 : 7-6 : 3-6 : 6-4
Win Percentages
Djokovic 60.00%
Zverev 40.00%
Head-to-Head and Performance Insights
Season 2025:
- Novak Djokovic:
- Matches Played: 88 | Win %: 87.5%
- Hard Court Record: 7-1 (87.5%)
- Tie Break Win %: 33.3%
- Average Winning Margin: +7.1 games
- Alexander Zverev:
- Matches Played: 77 | Win %: 87.5%
- Hard Court Record: 7-0 (100%)
- Tie Break Win %: 100%
- Average Winning Margin: +6.6 games
Head-to-Head Trends:
- Djokovic and Zverev share a tightly contested rivalry, with Djokovic holding a slight edge historically.
- Zverev is unbeaten on hard courts in 2025 and has demonstrated a strong ability to win close sets (tie-break dominance).
Historical Season Stats (2024):
- Both players showed similar winning percentages (~77%).
- Djokovic excelled in reliability after winning the first set (100%), while Zverev displayed strong comeback potential (50%).
The Betting Edge
Key Observations:
- The bookmakers’ odds favour Djokovic slightly more (61.73%) than our analysis (60%).
- Zverev’s implied probability (43.48%) is slightly higher than our calculated 40%, making him slightly overvalued.
Value Opportunity:
- Novak Djokovic 3-1 (Odds: 4.00): Offers strong alignment with the predicted scoreline and potential value.
- Over 40.5 games (Odds: 1.83): Considering the predicted score and close rivalry, this market has merit.
- Alexander Zverev Tie-Break Wins (Odds: Undisclosed): Zverev’s 100% tie-break win rate this season could deliver returns in tie-break specific betting.
Recommendation
- Risk-Averse Bettors: Back Djokovic outright at 1.62, but with limited value.
- Speculative Bettors: Consider Novak Djokovic 3-1 (4.00) or Over 40.5 games (1.83) for higher returns.
- Zverev Backers: Tie-break related bets may hold value given his recent dominance in this aspect.
Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton
Friday, January 24, 2025 7:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
6-4 : 6-3 : 7-6
Win Percentages
Sinner 92.00%
Shelton 8.00%
Head-to-Head and Performance Insights
Season 2025:
- Jannik Sinner:
- Matches Played: 55 | Win %: 100%
- Hard Court Record: 5-0 (100%)
- Average Winning Margin: +8.6 games
- Straight Sets Win %: 60%
- Ben Shelton:
- Matches Played: 66 | Win %: 83.3%
- Hard Court Record: 5-1 (83.3%)
- Average Winning Margin: +4.5 games
- Straight Sets Win %: 20%
Head-to-Head Trends:
- Overall: Sinner leads Shelton 4-1 in their previous encounters.
- Hard Court Dominance: Sinner has defeated Shelton three times on hard courts in straight sets (Shanghai 2024, Wimbledon 2024, and Indian Wells 2024).
- Close Sets: Shelton has pushed Sinner into multiple tie-breaks but struggled to convert, with Sinner winning critical moments.
- Shelton’s sole win came in Shanghai 2023, where he pulled off a comeback after dropping the first set.
Historical Season Stats (2024):
- Sinner dominated with a 92.1% win rate and superior reliability when leading.
- Shelton struggled to maintain consistency, particularly in straight sets (31.7% win rate).
The Betting Edge
Key Observations:
- Bookmaker Value: Sinner’s implied probability (94.34%) is slightly higher than our analysis (92%), making Shelton marginally undervalued at 9.25 odds.
- Shelton’s ability to force tie-breaks makes “Over Total Games” a potential value bet despite Sinner’s dominance.
Value Opportunity:
- Jannik Sinner 3-0 (Odds: 1.60): Aligns with the predicted scoreline and Sinner’s head-to-head dominance.
- Over 32.5 Games (Odds: 1.73): A straight-sets win with a tie-break (e.g., 6-4, 6-3, 7-6) could easily surpass this line.
- Exact Set Markets: Sinner to win 7-6 (Odds: 4.80) could provide speculative value based on previous matches.
Recommendation:
- Risk-Averse Bettors: Back Jannik Sinner 3-0 (1.60) for a safe, straightforward bet.
- Speculative Bettors: Consider Over 32.5 Games (1.73) or Sinner to win 7-6 in a set (4.80) for higher returns.
- Shelton Backers: While his odds of 9.25 provide high potential return, his limited consistency makes this a high-risk wager. A small stake on Shelton winning a tie-break could hold value.
