Day twelve of the 2025 Australian Open promises an exciting day of tennis under mostly sunny skies. After a slight chance of morning and early afternoon showers, the weather will clear, creating excellent playing conditions. Winds will shift to a strong southerly breeze at 25 to 40 km/h, adding an interesting dynamic to the matches.
These conditions set the stage for marquee clashes featuring stars like Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Sonego, Jannik Sinner, Alex De Minaur, Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, Emma Navarro, and Iga Swiatek. With the rain expected to clear early and no extreme heat, the day offers ideal conditions to refine your Australian Open betting tips and identify value opportunities in this critical stage of the tournament.
Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev
Thursday, January 23, 2025 10:00 AM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- Implied Probability: Bookmakers slightly overvalue Djokovic (62.5%) compared to our analysis (60%). Similarly, Zverev is undervalued at 42.55% compared to our calculated 40%.
- Value Opportunity: Limited for Djokovic as odds align closely with expectations. Zverev’s odds may hold speculative value if you anticipate an upset.
Set Betting Odds Breakdown:
- Djokovic 3-1 victory: @ (4.20).
- Djokovic 3-2 victory: (5.50).
Recommendation:
- Risk-averse bettors: Back Djokovic outright at 1.60 if you favour reliability.
- Speculative bettors: Bet on Djokovic 3-1 at 4.20 for higher returns, aligning with the predicted scoreline.
Additional Markets to Explore:
- Total Games Over 39.5: Odds of 1.75 offer fair value for a match likely to extend over 4 sets.
- Set Betting: Zverev winning at least one set (e.g., +1.5 sets at 2.05) aligns with his form and resilience.
Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton
Thurssday, January 23, 2025 10:00 AM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- Implied Probability: Bookmakers heavily favour Sinner (94.34%), while our analysis aligns closely, with a calculated probability of 90%. There is little value in backing Sinner outright.
- Value Opportunity: Ben Shelton’s odds of 9.25 slightly exceed his calculated 10% chance, but his inconsistency and struggles against Sinner diminish its appeal.
Key Market Insights:
- Correct Score Betting:
- Sinner 3-0 victory (predicted result): Odds of 1.60 suggest a 62.5% implied probability, offering decent value for a high-confidence outcome.
- Sinner 3-1 victory: 3.75 (26.67% implied probability) as a hedge if Shelton steals a set.
- Handicap Betting:
- Sinner -6.5 games (1.80): A strong play given Sinner’s average winning margin (+8.6 games per match in 2025).
- Sinner -7.5 games (2.45): A higher-risk option with significant upside.
- Total Games Market:
- Under 32.5 games (2.00): Aligns with the prediction of a dominant straight-sets win.
Recommendation:
- Confident Play: Back Sinner 3-0 at 1.60 for a straightforward win.
- Speculative Play: Bet on Sinner -7.5 games (2.45) for higher returns if you anticipate a lopsided result.
- Risky Play: Shelton outright at 9.25 could appeal to high-risk bettors seeking an unlikely upset.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa
Thursday, January 23, 2025 7:45 AM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- Implied Probability: The bookmakers slightly undervalue Sabalenka (75.76%) compared to our analysis (80%), while overvaluing Badosa (29.85% vs 20%).
- Value Opportunity: Sabalenka’s dominance and consistency suggest her odds still offer value, particularly in specific set betting markets.
Key Market Insights:
- Correct Score Betting:
- Sabalenka 2-0 victory (predicted result): Odds of 1.83 imply a 54.64% chance, offering decent value for a highly probable outcome.
- Handicap Betting:
- Sabalenka -3.5 games (1.65): A reasonable play, given her superior average winning margin (+5.5 games in 2025).
- Sabalenka -4.5 games (2.05): Offers higher returns and aligns with the predicted scoreline.
- Total Games Market:
- Under 21.5 games (1.83): Fits the prediction of a straight-sets victory without extended sets.
Recommendation:
- Confident Play: Back Sabalenka 2-0 at 1.83 for a straight-sets win.
- Speculative Play: Take Sabalenka -4.5 games (2.05) for higher odds if you expect her to dominate.
- Alternative Play: Bet on Under 21.5 games (1.83), as a lopsided match seems likely based on Sabalenka’s form and head-to-head dominance.
Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek
Thursday, January 23, 2025 9:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- Implied Probability: The bookmakers’ odds favour Swiatek (84.03%), aligning closely with our analysis (85%). However, Keys’ odds (21.05%) slightly overstate her realistic chances.
- Value Opportunity: Limited value on Swiatek outright due to her short odds. Explore specific set betting or handicap markets instead.
Key Market Insights:
- Correct Score Betting:
- Swiatek 2-0 victory (predicted result): Odds of 1.57 suggest a 63.69% implied probability, offering fair value given her dominance in the matchup.
- Handicap Betting:
- Swiatek -4.5 games (1.60): A solid option aligning with her predicted winning margin.
- Swiatek -5.5 games (1.95): Slightly higher risk but good value if she maintains her commanding form.
- Total Games Market:
- Under 18.5 games (2.30): A speculative but potentially rewarding play if Swiatek delivers a dominant straight-sets win as predicted.
Recommendation:
- Confident Play: Back Swiatek 2-0 at 1.57 for a straightforward win.
- Speculative Play: Bet on Swiatek -5.5 games (1.95) for better returns if you anticipate a dominant performance.
- Alternative Play: Consider Under 18.5 games (2.30) for value in a quick, lopsided match.
Todays Australian Open Multi
Djokovic 3-1 ($4.20)
Sinner 3-0 ($1.60)
Sabalenka 2-0 ($1.83)
Swiatek 2-0 ($1.57)
Total: $19.30 with Bet365
