Day eleven of the 2025 Australian Open promises an exciting day of tennis under mostly sunny skies. After a slight chance of morning and early afternoon showers, the weather will clear, creating excellent playing conditions. Winds will shift to a strong southerly breeze at 25 to 40 km/h, adding an interesting dynamic to the matches.
These conditions set the stage for marquee clashes featuring stars like Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Sonego, Jannik Sinner, Alex De Minaur, Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, Emma Navarro, and Iga Swiatek. With the rain expected to clear early and no extreme heat, the day offers ideal conditions to refine your Australian Open betting tips and identify value opportunities in this critical stage of the tournament.
Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!
Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego
Wedesday, January 22, 2025 3:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge
The bookmaker’s odds significantly favour Shelton, implying a 74.07% chance of victory. However, our analysis indicates Shelton’s probability is lower at 65%. Sonego, undervalued at 31.25%, has a calculated win probability of 35%.
Value Opportunity
For Match Winner Market:
- True odds for Sonego (35%): ~$2.85
- Current odds of $3.20 suggest good value on Sonego, especially considering his recent success against Shelton.
Set Betting Value:
- Sonego 3-1 ($7.50): A plausible upset scenario given Sonego’s strong recent form on hard courts.
- Shelton 3-1 ($3.60): Aligns with Shelton’s superior season stats.
Game Handicap:
- Lorenzo Sonego (+3.5 games at 1.85): Good option for tighter match expectations.
Recommendation
- Risk-averse bettors: Consider Shelton 3-1 ($3.60) for value.
- Speculative bettors: Small bets on Sonego outright ($3.20) or Sonego 3-1 ($7.50) offer higher returns with reasonable justification.
Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 7:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge
The bookmaker’s odds strongly favour Sinner, implying an 86.21% win probability. Our analysis slightly favours Sinner even more at 88%. De Minaur, despite his excellent season start, remains heavily undervalued due to Sinner’s consistent dominance in their matchups.
Value Opportunity
For Match Winner Market:
- True odds for Sinner (88%): ~$1.14
- Current odds of $1.16 align closely with his calculated probability, offering no significant value.
- De Minaur’s odds ($5.20) are overvalued compared to our estimated 12% win probability (true odds ~$8.33).
Set Betting Value:
- Sinner 3-0 ($2.00): Strong value, given Sinner’s head-to-head dominance and current form.
- De Minaur 3-2 ($12.00): A speculative pick with very high risk but potential upside for those anticipating an upset.
Game Handicap:
- Sinner (-5.5 games at 1.57): Reasonable value, aligning with our predicted margin.
- De Minaur (+5.5 games at 2.30): Better for those expecting a closer match.
Recommendation
- Risk-averse bettors: Back Sinner 3-0 ($2.00) or Sinner (-5.5 games) ($1.57) for steady returns.
- Speculative bettors: Consider Sinner 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 exact score bets for higher odds or a small wager on De Minaur 3-2 ($12.00) for a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
Madison Keys vs Elina Svitolina
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 11:45 AM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge:
- The bookmakers’ implied probability overvalues Madison Keys slightly at 65.79% compared to the analysis at 62%.
- Conversely, Elina Svitolina’s implied odds of 40.00% present a fair value relative to the calculated 38%.
Value Opportunity:
The current odds suggest limited betting value on Madison Keys at 1.52. Elina Svitolina at 2.50 offers marginal value but hinges on her ability to replicate her Australian Open success against Keys.
For example:
- True odds for Svitolina (based on a 38% probability): approximately $2.63.
- At current odds of $2.50, she’s slightly undervalued.
Predicted Score:
- Madison Keys to win in straight sets: 6-4, 6-3.
Recommendation:
- Risk-averse bettors: A small bet on Madison Keys to win 2-0 (2.20) aligns with the predicted score and offers better returns.
- Speculative bettors: Alternatively, betting on Svitolina outright (2.50) provides a mild speculative edge if you expect an upset.
Emma Navarro vs Iga Swiatek
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 1:45 PM
Predicted Final Score
Win Percentages
The Betting Edge
The bookmaker’s odds heavily favour Swiatek, aligning closely with our analysis. Navarro’s implied probability of 11.11% is slightly higher than our calculated 7%, suggesting limited value for bettors.
Value Opportunity
For Match Winner Market:
- True odds for Navarro (7%): ~$14.29.
- Current odds of $9.00 undervalue her chances but reflect the uphill battle against a dominant Swiatek.
Set Betting Value:
- Swiatek 2-0 ($1.30): Offers strong value given Swiatek’s 77.8% straight-set win rate this season.
- Swiatek 2-1 ($5.00): A speculative pick if Navarro can snatch a set.
Game Handicap:
- Swiatek (-5.5 games at 1.44): Suitable for those expecting a straightforward win.
- Navarro (+6.5 games at 1.83): A safer alternative if you anticipate a competitive performance.
Recommendation
- Risk-averse bettors: Back Swiatek 2-0 ($1.30) or Swiatek (-5.5 games) ($1.44).
- Speculative bettors: Consider Swiatek 6-2, 6-3 exact score ($4.25, $4.60) or a small wager on Navarro covering the spread (+6.5 games, $1.83).
Todays Australian Open Multi
Shelton 3-1 ($3.60)
Sinner 3-0 ($2.00)
Keys 2-0 ($2.20)
Swiatek 2-0 ($1.30)
Total: $20.59 with Bet365
