Storm vs Warriors Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors Predictions

Game 7 of Round 6 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 13 features the Storm vs Warriors at AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 13, 2025

2:00 pm @ AAMI Park, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Storm

34 : 19

Warriors

Win Percentages

Storm 59%

Warriors 41%

Storm

Warriors

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Melbourne Storm is set at $1.17, and $5.00 for the New Zealand Warriors, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Storm 81.04%
Warriors 18.96%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have the Storm absolutely dominating this one, giving them an 81.04% chance at $1.17. But our model dials that way back, we’ve got them at 59%, still likely to win, but nowhere near that heavy favourite status.

The real story is with the Warriors. The market’s priced them like they’ve only got a 19% shot, but we reckon it’s closer to 41%. That’s a huge gap, and with odds at $5.00, that’s serious value for the bold punter willing to back the upset.

In Summary

The Storm should win, but not as easily as the market suggests. That creates a massive edge on the Warriors, with our numbers giving them a much stronger chance than their $5.00 odds reflect. If you’re after value, the Warriors are well worth a cheeky punt.

What to do?

Last couple of games between these two at AAMI Park have had a surprisingly close score, and even though the Storm are one of the true standouts this season (as expected), no one can ignore the fact that the Warriors play very well in Melbourne (most likely due to the similar weather conditions). Warriors handicap line is a solid safe move at AAMI Park, Storm on the nose isn’t worth it, OVER 50.5 is also a good shout, and the Storm winning margin of 1-12 is also a good move considering the close scores of these two at AAMI Park.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Warriors +15.5 @ $1.95 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Storm (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.15 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Storm 1-12 @ $3.50 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 50.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Storm vs Warriors SGM

Storm vs Warriors Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Storm: 35.5, Warriors: 21.0 – (Storm by 14.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Storm: 20.0, Warriors: 19.0 – (Warriors by 1 point)
Average Winning Margin: Storm: 22.7, Warriors: 10.0 – (Storm by 12.7 points)
Average Losing Margin: Storm: 6.0, Warriors: 22.0 – (Storm more resilient by 16 points)
HT/FT Double %: Storm: 75.0%, Warriors: 25.0% – (Storm by 50%)
Highest Score For: Storm: 56, Warriors: 36 – (Storm by 20 points)
Highest Score Against: Storm: 24, Warriors: 30 – (Storm by 6 points)
Biggest Win: Storm: 38, Warriors: 20 – (Storm by 18 points)
Biggest Loss: Storm: 6, Warriors: 22 – (Storm more resilient by 16 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Storm: 74, Warriors: 52 – (Storm by 22 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Storm: 22, Warriors: 20 – (Storm by 2 points)
Current Streak: Storm: W1, Warriors: W3 – (Warriors momentum)
Current Form: Storm: WWLW, Warriors: LWWW – (Warriors edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Storm: 25.0%, Warriors: 0.0% – (Warriors by 25%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Storm: 75.0%, Warriors: 100.0% – (Warriors by 25%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Storm: N/A, Warriors: 50.0% – (Warriors edge)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Storm won by 14 points (38-24) on 15th June 2024
Previous Encounter: Storm won by 4 points (30-26) on 16th March 2024