Sea Eagles vs Storm Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm Predictions

Game 7 of Round 5 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 6 features the Sea Eagles vs Storm at 4 Pines Park on Sunday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, & Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 6, 2025

4:05 pm @ 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Sea Eagles

29 : 28

Storm

Win Percentages

Sea Eagles 55%

Storm 45%

Sea Eagles

Storm

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Manly Sea Eagles is set at $2.45, and $1.56 for the Melbourne Storm, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Sea Eagles 38.92%
Storm 61.08%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have gone in strong on the Storm, giving them a 61.08% shot at winning, while Manly sit at just 38.92%. But our analysis tells a different story, we actually rate the Sea Eagles as slight favourites at 55%.

With Manly priced at $2.45, but our numbers suggesting their true odds should be closer to $1.82, there’s a strong edge here. The market’s clearly undervaluing them based on our metrics.

In summary: Backing the Sea Eagles at $2.45 looks like a solid value play. If our read is right, there’s a serious opportunity to cash in on the market’s misjudgment, Manly are a great underdog shout in this one.

What to do?

The boys from the south will be hunting for a win this week as they take on the Sea Eagles in one of the (Statistically) closest games we have ever encountered, the Storm have played one game less than the Sea Eagles this season sitting the second week due to a bye, however, they have also not won a single game at 4 Pines Park since 2020 which will be playing a mental game on them this week.

The line this week is a little too close for my liking, as the score historically fluctuate so much, which also rules out the winning margin, best bet is Sea Eagles on the nose.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Sea Eagles @ $2.45 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.75 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Sea Eagles +4.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 47.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Sea Eagles vs Storm SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Sea Eagles: 31.0, Storm: 31.3 – (Storm by 0.3 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Sea Eagles: 18.0, Storm: 18.7 – (Sea Eagles by 0.7 points)
Average Winning Margin: Sea Eagles: 24.0, Storm: 22.0 – (Sea Eagles by 2.0 points)
Average Losing Margin: Sea Eagles: 20.0, Storm: 6.0 – (Storm by 14.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Sea Eagles: 75.0%, Storm: 66.7% – (Sea Eagles by 8.3%)
Highest Score For: Sea Eagles: 42, Storm: 56 – (Storm by 14 points)
Highest Score Against: Sea Eagles: 36, Storm: 24 – (Storm more resilient by 12 points)
Biggest Win: Sea Eagles: 30, Storm: 38 – (Storm by 8 points)
Biggest Loss: Sea Eagles: 20, Storm: 6 – (Storm more resilient by 14 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Sea Eagles: 54, Storm: 74 – (Storm by 20 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Sea Eagles: 38, Storm: 22 – (Storm by 16 points)
Current Streak: Sea Eagles: W2, Storm: L1 – (Sea Eagles momentum)
Current Form: Sea Eagles: WLWW, Storm: WWL – (Even)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Sea Eagles: 0.0%, Storm: 33.3% – (Sea Eagles by 33.3%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Sea Eagles: 100.0%, Storm: 66.7% – (Sea Eagles by 33.3%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Sea Eagles: 0.0%, Storm: N/A – (Sea Eagles by 0.0%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 24 May 2024 (R12): Sea Eagles 26 def. Storm 20
- 24 Jun 2023 (R17): Storm 24 def. Sea Eagles 6
- 14 Apr 2023 (R7): Sea Eagles 18 def. Storm 8
- 30 Jun 2022 (R16): Sea Eagles 36 def. Storm 30
- 26 May 2022 (R12): Storm 28 def. Sea Eagles 8