Raiders vs Sharks Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Predictions

Game 1 of Round 5 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 3 features the Raiders vs Sharks at GIO Stadium on Thursday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, & Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 3, 2025

7:00 pm @ GIO Stadium, Canberra

Final Score Prediction

Raiders

22 : 24

Sharks

Win Percentages

Raiders 47%

Sharks 53%

Raiders

Sharks

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Canberra Raiders is set at $2.35, and $1.60 for the Cronulla Sharks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Raiders 40.50%
Sharks 59.50%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have Cronulla as fairly strong favourites, giving them a 59.5% shot. But our model sees this as a much closer battle, with the Sharks just edging it at 53%, and the Raiders not far behind on 47%.

That opens up a juicy opportunity. Canberra are paying $2.35, but if our numbers are on the money, their true odds should be closer to $2.13. That gives us some nice value backing the Green Machine.

In summary: There’s a value play here with the Raiders at $2.35. While not the favourites, our analysis says they’ve got a stronger chance than the bookies are giving them credit for, making it a solid betting edge.

What to do?

Our analysis is consistent with the Bookmakers, however, the game should be closer than the bookies imply. Statistically the Sharks are not that much better than the Raiders at the moment so expect a tight game. Throwing your money on a Sharks 1-12 is a smart move, but considering how close this game could be a Raiders 1-12 is a (slightly) riskier but better value bet.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Sharks 1-12 @ $3.40 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Sharks @ $1.60 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Raiders +3.5 @ $1.82 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 47.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Raiders vs Sharks SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Raiders: 23.5, Sharks: 22.8 – (Raiders by 0.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Raiders: 25.0, Sharks: 18.0 – (Sharks by 7.0 points)
Average Winning Margin: Raiders: 16.0, Sharks: 19.5 – (Sharks by 3.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Raiders: 19.0, Sharks: 10.0 – (Sharks by 9.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Raiders: 50.0%, Sharks: 50.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Raiders: 32, Sharks: 36 – (Sharks by 4 points)
Highest Score Against: Raiders: 40, Sharks: 28 – (Sharks more resilient by 12 points)
Biggest Win: Raiders: 22, Sharks: 24 – (Sharks by 2 points)
Biggest Loss: Raiders: 28, Sharks: 14 – (Sharks more resilient by 14 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Raiders: 54, Sharks: 50 – (Raiders by 4 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Raiders: 38, Sharks: 26 – (Sharks by 12 points)
Current Streak: Raiders: L2, Sharks: L1 – (Sharks slight edge)
Current Form: Raiders: WWLL, Sharks: LWWL – (Sharks edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Raiders: 0.0%, Sharks: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Raiders: 100.0%, Sharks: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Raiders: 0.0%, Sharks: 0.0% – (Even)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 28 Apr 2024 (R8): Sharks 40 def. Raiders 0
- 31 Mar 2024 (R4): Sharks 36 def. Raiders 22
- 3 Sep 2023 (R27): Sharks 24 def. Raiders 6
- 19 Mar 2023 (R3): Raiders 24 def. Sharks 20
- 15 May 2022 (R10): Raiders 30 def. Sharks 10