Eels vs Dragons Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Parramatta Eels vs St. George Illawarra Dragons Predictions

Game 4 of Round 5 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 5 features the Eels vs Dragons at CommBank Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 5, 2025

2:00 pm @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Eels

14 : 24

Dragons

Win Percentages

Eels 38%

Dragons 62%

Eels

Dragons

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Parramatta Eels is set at $2.40, and $1.58 for the St. George Illawarra Dragons, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Eels 39.70%
Dragons 60.30%

Opportunity Bet

In this case, the bookies and our model are pretty closely aligned. The Dragons are rightfully favoured, with our numbers giving them a 62% chance compared to the bookies’ 60.30%. The Eels are sitting at 38%, not far off the implied 39.70% from the market.

That means there’s not much edge to work with here. The current odds of $1.58 for the Dragons and $2.40 for the Eels are more or less in line with our expectations. It’s a fairly priced market, so there’s no clear betting opportunity jumping out.

What to do?

The Eels haven’t been having a great start to the season, and while the Dragons aren’t exactly sitting at the top of the ladder themselves, the Dragons are well in front when it comes to stopping the other team from scoring. The Dragons should take this one pretty easily, the head to head doesn’t hold much value, we think the Dragons at $3.40 is a solid option.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Dragons 1-12 @ $3.40 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Dragons @ $1.58 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Dragons -4.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 49.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Eels vs Dragons SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Eels: 11.0, Dragons: 19.3 – (Dragons by 8.3 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Eels: 32.5, Dragons: 20.3 – (Dragons by 12.2 points)
Average Winning Margin: Eels: N/A, Dragons: 6.0 – (Dragons by 6.0 points)
Average Losing Margin: Eels: 21.5, Dragons: 4.5 – (Dragons by 17.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Eels: 0.0%, Dragons: 0.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Eels: 18, Dragons: 24 – (Dragons by 6 points)
Highest Score Against: Eels: 56, Dragons: 28 – (Dragons more resilient by 28 points)
Biggest Win: Eels: N/A, Dragons: 6 – (Dragons by 6 points)
Biggest Loss: Eels: 38, Dragons: 8 – (Dragons more resilient by 30 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Eels: 74, Dragons: 49 – (Eels by 25 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Eels: 24, Dragons: 22 – (Eels by 2 points)
Current Streak: Eels: L4, Dragons: W1 – (Dragons momentum)
Current Form: Eels: LLLL, Dragons: LLW – (Dragons edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Eels: N/A, Dragons: 100.0% – (Eels by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Eels: N/A, Dragons: 0.0% – (Eels by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Eels: 0.0%, Dragons: 50.0% – (Dragons by 50%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 31 Aug 2024 (R26): Eels 44 def. Dragons 40
- 6 Aug 2023 (R23): Eels 26 def. Dragons 20
- 3 Apr 2022 (R4): Eels 48 def. Dragons 14
- 11 Apr 2021 (R5): Dragons 26 def. Eels 12
- 14 Aug 2020 (R14): Dragons 14 def. Eels 12