Dragons vs Storm Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm Predictions

Game 4 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership Round 4 on March 29 features the Dragons vs Storm at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, March 29, 2025

2:00 pm @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Dragons

14 : 37

Storm

Win Percentages

Dragons 41%

Storm 59%

Dragons

Storm

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for St. George Illawarra Dragons is set at $3.10, and $1.38 for the Melbourne Storm, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Dragons 30.79%
Storm 69.21%

Opportunity Bet

Here’s the thing, the bookies are giving the Storm a bit too much credit, while selling the Dragons short. Our numbers say the Dragons are more in this than the odds suggest.

If our 41% rating is on point, the Dragons should be priced closer to $2.44, not the $3.10 that’s currently available. That gap creates a solid betting edge for anyone looking for value in the Dragons.

What to do?

The Dragons might be underrated here. With a stronger win chance than what the bookies have priced in, considering the Dragon beat the Storm last time they played at AAMI Park there’s clear value backing them at $3.10 if our forecast holds true.
However, watching the last few games that the Storm have played, they currently look like an unstoppable force that will keep on demolishing until we see some major injuries.

They haven’t played each other in the first half of the season for the past few years, so with Storm as strong as they are right now, we can see the Dragons drowning under the pressure of the Storm this week, a 13+ winning margin is definitely come as no surprise.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Storm 13+ @ $2.20 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Storm @ $1.35 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Storm -9.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 50.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Dragons vs Storm SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Dragons: 22.0, Storm: 43.0 – (Storm by 21 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Dragons: 26.5, Storm: 21.0 – (Storm by 5.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Dragons: N/A, Storm: 22.0 – (Storm only with winning margin recorded)
Average Losing Margin: Dragons: 4.5, Storm: N/A – (Dragons lower losing margin)
HT/FT Double %: Dragons: 0.0%, Storm: 100.0% – (Storm by 100%)
Highest Score For: Dragons: 24, Storm: 56 – (Storm by 32 points)
Highest Score Against: Dragons: 28, Storm: 24 – (Storm by 4 points)
Biggest Win: Dragons: N/A, Storm: 38 – (Storm dominant)
Biggest Loss: Dragons: 8, Storm: N/A – (Storm more resilient)
Highest Total Match Score: Dragons: 49, Storm: 74 – (Storm by 25 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Dragons: 48, Storm: 54 – (Dragons by 6 points)
Current Streak: Dragons: L2, Storm: W2 – (Storm momentum)
Current Form: Dragons: LL, Storm: WW – (Storm form edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Dragons: 100%, Storm: 0% – (Storm by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Dragons: 0%, Storm: 100% – (Storm by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Dragons: 0%, Storm: N/A – (No comeback data for Storm)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Dragons won by 2 points (18-16) on 3rd August 2024