Dolphins vs Panthers Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Dolphins vs Penrith Panthers Predictions

Game 1 of Round 6 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 10 features the Dolphins vs Panthers at Suncorp Stadium on Thursday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 10, 2025

7:50 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Dolphins

21 : 26

Panthers

Model Win Percentages

Dolphins 52%

Panthers 48%

Dolphins

Panthers

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Dolphins is set at $2.90, and $1.42 for the Penrith Panthers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Dolphins 32.87%
Panthers 67.13%

Opportunity Bet

So here’s the kicker, the bookies have the Dolphins as major outsiders at $2.90, implying they win this just 32.87% of the time. But our model flips the script, giving them a 52% chance of coming out on top. That’s a massive edge.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are $1.42 favourites, but our numbers actually have them as the less likely side to win. This makes their odds look way too short, and it’s the Dolphins that suddenly start to look like a red-hot value pick.

In Summary

The Dolphins are seriously undervalued here. Our model has them winning more often than not, while the bookies are paying $2.90 like they’re long shots. That’s a huge edge, and if our numbers are right, backing the Dolphins could pay off in a big way.

What to do?

Right now the Panthers are dangerous, falling from grace in such a dramatic way this season they really need to step up their A-game, the bookies have them for the win this week in a big way, we see it being a much tougher fight than they predict though it is going to be close, Dolphins +7.5 is the best move, both teams have played very similar matchups leading up to this round, statistically the Dolphins have it… but only by home-ground advantage.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Dolphins +7.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Panthers @ $1.58 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Panthers 1-12 @ $2.95 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 49.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Dolphins vs Panthers SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Dolphins: 18.4, Panthers: 24.0 – (Panthers by 5.6 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Dolphins: 20.4, Panthers: 28.0 – (Dolphins by 7.6 points)
Average Winning Margin: Dolphins: 26.0, Panthers: 6.0 – (Dolphins by 20 points)
Average Losing Margin: Dolphins: 9.0, Panthers: 6.5 – (Panthers more resilient by 2.5 points)
HT/FT Double %: Dolphins: 20.0%, Panthers: 20.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Dolphins: 36, Panthers: 32 – (Dolphins by 4 points)
Highest Score Against: Dolphins: 30, Panthers: 38 – (Dolphins by 8 points)
Biggest Win: Dolphins: 26, Panthers: 6 – (Dolphins by 20 points)
Biggest Loss: Dolphins: 14, Panthers: 10 – (Panthers more resilient by 4 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Dolphins: 48, Panthers: 70 – (Panthers by 22 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Dolphins: 30, Panthers: 40 – (Dolphins by 10 points)
Current Streak: Dolphins: W1, Panthers: L4 – (Dolphins momentum)
Current Form: Dolphins: LLLLW, Panthers: WLLLL – (Dolphins edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Dolphins: 50.0%, Panthers: 50.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Dolphins: 50.0%, Panthers: 50.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Dolphins: 0.0%, Panthers: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Panthers won by 2 points (28-26) on 21st July 2024
Previous Encounter: Panthers won by 2 points (28-26) on 21st July 2024