NRL Betting Tips Round 27

NRL Footy Tips Round 27

NRL Betting Tips Round 27 kicks off on Thursday with a pivotal matchup between the Brisbane Broncos and Melbourne Storm at Suncorp Stadium. The round concludes with the Newcastle Knights taking on the Redcliffe Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium. With the Warriors on a bye, these NRL footy tips focus on the final chances for teams to secure their finals positions.

Broncos vs Storm

Thursday, September 5, 2024

7:50 PM @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

The Brisbane Broncos are hosting the Melbourne Storm this Thursday at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, with kickoff set for 7:50 pm.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Broncos 21, Storm 26

Win Percentages: Broncos 44.4%, Storm 55.6%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Broncos however have an equal tackle effieciency and happened to win the last game between these two teams by 26 points.

Storm have a better points and against per match, and completion rate, alongside significantly more wins this season, a better reliability to win after leading at HT, and a much better HT/FT double.

Pre-match Analysis:

A year after their heartbreaking loss to Melbourne Storm that cost them the minor premiership, the Brisbane Broncos find themselves in a drastically different position as they face off against them once again. This time, however, the stakes are far lower for Brisbane, whose season has already come to a shocking and premature end. The Broncos’ decline was epitomised by a crushing 40-6 defeat at the hands of the Dolphins, a result that dashed any remaining hopes of a premiership challenge in a year that once held so much promise.

In stark contrast, the Melbourne Storm have already secured the minor premiership, allowing them to rest key players in last week’s match against the Cowboys, which they lost. The Storm will be bolstered by the return of several stars, including Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, and Eliesa Katoa, though they’ll be missing fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen due to a minor leg injury.

Statistically, the Storm have dominated this season, averaging 27.9 points per match compared to the Broncos’ 22.8, and conceding just 19.0 points per game against Brisbane’s 24.2. Their form form reflects their superiority. The Storm’s overall performance this season has been significantly better, with an impressive 78% win rate, far outpacing the Broncos’ 43%. Even in terms of scoring, Melbourne has outperformed Brisbane, tallying 642 points this season, which is 117 more than the Broncos, while also conceding 120 fewer points. The last time these teams met, however, Brisbane managed to pull off a surprise, winning 26-0, but with the Storm’s 100% reliability to win after leading at halftime, and a strong 69.6% HT/FT double success rate, they are clear favourites heading into this rematch.

Final Score Prediction:

Storm 26-21

 

Wests Tigers vs Eels

Friday, September 6, 2024

6:00 PM @ Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney

In a matchup that has been circled on calendars for weeks, Campbelltown Stadium is packed to the brim as the Wests Tigers and Parramatta Eels face off in what many are dubbing the “spoon bowl.” The stakes couldn’t be higher, with the loser of this clash set to claim the dreaded wooden spoon for the 2024 NRL season. The Eels come into this game riding the momentum of a 44-40 win over the Dragons, a victory that kept them just ahead of the Tigers on points differential. Meanwhile, the Tigers, who had a bye in Round 26, are desperate to avoid their third consecutive wooden spoon, a feat that would tie the longest streak of any club in the NRL era.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Wests Tigers 24, Parramatta Eels 26

Win Percentages: Wests Tigers 48.3%, Parramatta Eels 51.7%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Wests Tigers are better in completion rate, tackle efficiency, and reliability to win after leading at HT.

Eels are better in average points for per match, and the HT/FT double.

Pre-match Analysis:

The last time these two teams met, the Tigers edged out a narrow 17-16 victory, a result they’ll be eager to replicate. However, the Eels, who are averaging 21.8 points per match compared to the Tigers’ 19.0, will be looking to turn the tables this time around. Despite both teams conceding an identical 30 points per match on average, the Tigers have shown a slight edge in their completion rate, boasting a 79% success rate compared to the Eels’ 76%. This efficiency, combined with a tackle success rate of 86.5%—just ahead of Parramatta’s 85.8%—could be crucial in such a tightly contested match.

With both teams sharing a meager 26% win rate this season, this game is as evenly matched as it gets. However, the Tigers have a psychological edge, having already defeated the Eels this year. Their ability to hold a lead is also superior, with a 60% success rate when leading at halftime, compared to the Eels’ 41.7%. But Parramatta’s ability to close out games with a higher HT/FT double success rate of 21.7%, compared to the Tigers’ 13%, means that this game could go down to the wire.

In terms of personnel changes, the Tigers will miss Solomon Alaimalo due to concussion protocols, with Josh Feledy stepping into the backline. The Eels, on the other hand, welcome back Kelma Tuilagi and Sean Russell, who replace Dan Keir and Jake Tago in the squad. As both teams gear up for this critical clash, fans can expect a fiercely fought contest with no shortage of drama.

Final Score Prediction:

Eels 26-24

 

Rabbitohs vs Roosters

Friday, September 6, 2024

8:00 PM @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

The Sydney Roosters’ quest for premiership glory has hit a major roadblock with the devastating loss of Sam Walker and Brandon Smith to season-ending knee injuries, stripping the team of two critical members of their spine. Despite securing a spot in the top four thanks to a strong points differential, the Roosters missed a prime opportunity to solidify a home final advantage, falling narrowly to the Raiders in their last outing. Now, they prepare for a showdown with arch-rivals, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, a team teetering on the edge of a disastrous finish that could see them end the season as low as 16th if they suffer another defeat.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Rabbitohs 19, Roosters 20

Win Percentages: Rabbitohs 42.6%, Roosters 59.9%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Rabbitohs are failing every single metric coming into this game.

Roosters have a better points for and against per match, completion rate, tackle efficiency, wins this season, reliability to win after leading at HT, and a better HT/FT double, additionally they also won their last game against the Rabbitohs by 42 points.

Pre-match Analysis:

The Rabbitohs are reeling from a dismal run of current form, having lost their last five games. Their woes are compounded by the absence of Jack Wighton, forcing Cody Walker to shift back to five-eighth with Dean Hawkins stepping in at halfback. Richie Kennar also comes onto the wing, replacing Fletcher Myers. On the other side, the Roosters will be missing not only Walker and Smith but also Nat Butcher and Victor Radley due to injuries, while Daniel Tupou has been given a rest. However, the return of Joseph Sua’ali’i from injury offers a much-needed boost for the Tricolours.

Statistically, the Roosters have dominated the season, averaging 30.5 points per match compared to the Rabbitohs’ 20.3. They have also been superior in holding the other team back, conceding just 18.9 points per game, while Souths have struggled, allowing 28.1 points on average. The Roosters have been in red-hot form, winning four of their last five games, and their completion rate of 79% and tackle efficiency of 87.3% slightly edge out the Rabbitohs in both areas.

With a win rate of 68% this season, the Roosters have consistently performed better than the Rabbitohs, who have managed just 30% of their games. This superiority was on full display in their last match up, where the Roosters thrashed the Souths by a staggering 42 points, winning 48-6. Moreover, the Roosters have a higher success rate in converting halftime leads into full-time victories and are far more reliable in securing both halves of the game, making them clear favourites as they head into this match.

Final Score Prediction:

Roosters 20-19

 

Dragons vs Raiders

Saturday, September 7, 2024

3:00 PM @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

The upcoming game between St. George Illawarra Dragons and Canberra Raiders has evolved into a largely inconsequential contest, with both teams now reliant on an unlikely result elsewhere, a draw between the Dolphins and Knights to keep any finals hopes alive. Despite the Dragons’ earlier positioning to potentially claim eighth place, recent lack of holding the opponents back forced them to concede a combined 82 points to Cronulla and Parramatta, having all but sealed their fate for the season.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Dragons 23, Raiders 23 (Likely Draw)

Win Percentages: Dragons 52.8%, Raiders 47.2%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Dragons are better with average points per match and wins this season.

Raiders are better in average points against per match, completion rate, reliability to win after leading at halftime, and the HT/FT double, additionally they won their last game by 10 points.

Pre-match Analysis:

Final Score Prediction:

Dragons 24-18

 

Bulldogs vs Cowboys

Saturday, September 7, 2024

5:30 PM @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

With plenty still to be decided in the top eight, the Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys face off on Saturday evening, both eager to secure the best possible finish ahead of finals. The Bulldogs, while still in the running for a coveted top-four spot, would need favourable results and a significant swing in points difference to climb that high. On the flip side, a loss could push them down to seventh, meaning a challenging away final. Similarly, the Cowboys’ position remains volatile, with a win potentially lifting them to fifth, though a loss could see them tumble to seventh.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Bulldogs 24, Cowboys 22

Win Percentages: Bulldogs 55.1%, Cowboys 44.5%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Bulldogs are better in average points against per match.

Cowboys are better in average points against per match, completion rate, tackle efficiency, reliability to win after leading at HT, and a better HT/FT double, additionally they also won their last game by 2 points.

Pre-match Analysis:

Recent form presents a mixed picture for both teams. The Bulldogs are reeling from a loss to Manly that dealt a severe blow to their top-four aspirations, while the Cowboys capitalised on an subpar Melbourne side to claim a win. Notably, their past encounters have often gone down to the wire, with three of the last four meetings decided by two points or less—a reflection of how evenly matched these teams can be on game day.

The Bulldogs will be missing key figures, with Matt Burton sidelined and Bronson Xerri out due to suspension. Drew Hutchison steps in, while Stephen Crichton makes a timely return. On the Cowboys’ side, the only adjustment sees Thomas Mikaele replacing Jaxon Purdue on the bench, keeping their core largely intact.

In terms of performance metrics, the Cowboys hold an edge with a higher average score per game, notching 26.7 points compared to the Bulldogs’ 22.7. However, the Bulldogs have proven tougher to break down this season, allowing only 16.9 points on average, while the Cowboys have let in 24.4 points per game. Completion rates and tackle efficiency show both teams operating at similar levels, with the Cowboys holding a slight edge in both areas, reflecting their ability to maintain possession and manage play effectively.

Both sides have identical win percentages this season at 61%, but the Cowboys have outscored the Bulldogs by a notable 90 points over the course of the year. Meanwhile, Canterbury’s resilience is clear, having conceded 173 fewer points than their northern rivals. In their most recent game, the Cowboys won by a narrow two-point margin, which speaks to the tight, competitive nature of their matchups, we anticipate this game to be the same.

Final Score Prediction:

Bulldogs 18-16

 

Panthers vs Titans

Saturday, September 7, 2024

7:35 PM @ Penrith Park, Penrith

The Penrith Panthers close out their regular season at BlueBet Stadium, hoping it’s not their final appearance at the venue before redevelopment begins. A victory against the Gold Coast Titans on Saturday night would lock in a top-two finish, ensuring they return to BlueBet for a home final. The Titans, on the other hand, aim to salvage some pride after a disappointing slide out of finals contention, having suffered four consecutive losses over the past month.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Panthers 26, Titans 18

Win Percentages: Panthers 60.8%, Titans 39.2%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Panthers have better average points per and against per match, wins this season, points scored and conceded this season, more reliability to win after leading at halftime, and HT/FT double, additionally they also won their last game by 26 points.

Titans have better completion rate.

Pre-match Analysis:

The Panthers, sitting on a 70% win rate for the season, have clearly been the stronger side, both in their ability to control matches and limit their opponents’ scoring opportunities. Their ability to hold teams to an average of just 16.6 points per game contrasts sharply with the Titans, who have struggled to contain opposition, conceding an average of 27.7 points. This disparity reflects the difference in consistency between the teams, with Penrith also outscoring the Titans by 100 points this season.

In terms of recent form, the Panthers have bounced back from a couple of setbacks, recording wins in three of their last five matches, while the Titans are enduring a dismal run of four straight defeats. The Titans’ effort to finish the season on a high will be further tested by the Panthers’ proven reliability when leading at halftime, closing out matches 80% of the time compared to the Titans’ 62.5%.

Penrith welcomes the return of Scott Sorensen to the fold, adding experience to their lineup, while Matt Eisenhuth makes way. For the Titans, young talent Keano Kini reclaims his spot at fullback, pushing Jaylan de Groot out of the side. Debutant Arama Hau and Jacob Alick are also included as replacements for Josiah Pahulu and David Fifita, the latter sidelined due to surgery.

Though both teams boast similar completion rates—Panthers at 80% and Titans at 81%—Penrith’s ability to make the most of their opportunities on the field has set them apart throughout the season. Their tackle efficiency of 87.8% also gives them a slight edge over Gold Coast’s 86.7%, underscoring the Panthers’ overall discipline and structure. The Titans have struggled to maintain this level, which has contributed to their inconsistent season, culminating in just 36% of matches won.

The previous meeting between these two sides saw Penrith dominate with a convincing 40-14 victory, and with a chance to secure a home final, they will be determined to replicate that success.

Final Score Prediction:

Panthers 30-12

 

Sea Eagles vs Sharks

Sunday, September 8, 2024

2:00 PM @ 4 Pines Park, Sydney

In a crucial Sunday clash with significant finals implications, the Manly Sea Eagles face off against the Cronulla Sharks at 4 Pines Park. For the Sea Eagles, a win could propel them into sixth place, positioning them to host the loser of the Bulldogs-Cowboys match—barring a draw in that contest. The Sharks, meanwhile, are guaranteed a double chance unless they suffer a monumental loss. Their recent slip-up suggests a probable trip to Melbourne next week, but earlier results might still present the possibility of a home final.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Sea Eagles 22, Sharks 24

Win Percentages: Sea Eagles 49.5%, 50.5%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Sea Eagles have a better HT/FT double, additionally they won their last game by four points.

Sharks are better in average points against, completion rate, tackle efficiency, wins this season, reliability to win after leading at HT.

Pre-match Analysis:

Manly comes into this game with the blow of losing Jason Saab and Tom Trbojevic to injuries following their win over the Bulldogs. Tolutau Koula slots into fullback, Clayton Faulolo steps in on the wing, and Ben Trbojevic joins the bench. In contrast, the Sharks welcome back key players Jesse Ramien and Ronaldo Mulitalo, allowing Nicho Hynes to return to the halfback position.

Looking at the stats, both teams are evenly matched in terms of average points scored per match at 26.7. However, the Sharks have a slight edge, conceding 17.9 points per game compared to Manly’s 20.9. In terms of form, Cronulla enters the game on a four-match winning streak, while Manly has been more inconsistent with a record of LWWLW.

The Sharks also maintain a narrow advantage in completion rate (79% vs. 78%) and tackle efficiency (87.2% vs. 86.2%). Across the season, the Sharks have won 65% of their games compared to Manly’s 57%, reflecting a more consistent campaign. When it comes to points scored this season, both teams are nearly identical, with Manly tallying 614 and Cronulla 613. However, the Sharks have been a little more disciplined, having conceded 70 fewer points than the Sea Eagles.

Manly did win the last encounter between the two sides by four points (30-26) on 23 July 2023, but Cronulla has been more reliable in holding onto leads, winning 85.7% of games when ahead at halftime, compared to Manly’s 69.2%. Interestingly, the Sea Eagles have had more success converting halftime leads into full-time wins, with a 39.1% success rate compared to Cronulla’s 26.1%.

Final Score Prediction:

Sharks 32-18

 

Knights vs Dolphins

Sunday, September 8, 2024

4:05 PM @ McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Rounding off the NRL season games for the year in a fitting end to the home-and-away season, the Newcastle Knights take on the Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium, with the final spot in the top eight up for grabs. This match is essentially an elimination final, with both teams having followed contrasting paths to this point.

 Round 27 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Knights 22, Dolphins 23

Win Percentages: Knights 48.9%, Dolphins 51.1%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Knights are better in average against per match and for the season, tackle efficiency, reliability to win after leading at HT, additionally they won their last game by 4 points.

Dolphins have a better average points for per match, completion rate, wins this season.

Pre-match Analysis:

The Dolphins surged back into eighth place after a dominant 40-6 victory over the Broncos, marking their first-ever win against their crosstown rivals and potentially setting up the club’s first finals appearance. On the other hand, the Knights have spent just two weeks inside the top eight all season but have found their form at the crucial end of the year, amassing an impressive 124 points over their last four games.

Newcastle’s Tyson Frizell and Tyson Gamble return from injury to bolster the team, while the Dolphins welcome back the Bromwich brothers into the starting lineup, with Kodi Nikorima adding experience off the bench. Statistically, the Dolphins have a slight edge in average points scored per game, managing 24.8 compared to Newcastle’s 19.8. However, the Knights have been slightly better holding back their opponents, conceding 21.9 points per game versus the Dolphins’ 24.5.

Form-wise, the Knights come into this game with back-to-back wins, while the Dolphins’ recent run has been more inconsistent, reflected in a LWLLW record. The Dolphins also hold a narrow advantage in completion rates, completing at 80% to the Knights’ 79%, but Newcastle edges them out in tackle efficiency, with an 88.1% success rate compared to the Dolphins’ 87%.

The Dolphins have a slightly better win percentage this season, securing 48% of their games, while the Knights have won 45%. Despite this, Newcastle have conceded 74 fewer points across the season. The most recent meeting between these two saw the Knights win by 4 points, 18-14, back in April. When it comes to closing out games after leading at halftime, Newcastle again shows strength, converting 81.8% of their leads into victories, compared to the Dolphins’ 69.2%. Both sides are equally matched in their ability to secure HT/FT doubles, with both sitting at 39.1%.

Final Score Prediction

Dolphins 34-16

 

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