NRL Betting Tips Round 18

NRL Footy Tips Round 18

This week’s NRL Round 18 tips and predictions begins on Thursday with the Eels taking on the Rabbitohs at CommBank Stadium, and finishing up with the Raiders and the Knights at GIO Stadium with the Dolphins sitting out this round with a bye.

Eels vs Rabbitohs

Thursday, July 4, 2024

7:50 PM @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

The Eels are set to clash with the Rabbitohs this Thursday night at CommBank Stadium in Sydney. Kickoff is at 7:50 pm, and fans can expect a rainy day with temperatures between 12 -18 degrees.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Eels: 20.6, Rabbitohs: 20.4
Average Points Against Per Match: Eels: 29.2, Rabbitohs: 28.4
Current Form: Eels: LWLLL, Rabbitohs: LWWWW
Completion Rate: Eels: 75%, Rabbitohs: 78%
Tackle Efficiency: Eels: 86.7%, Rabbitohs: 86.2%
Wins This Season: Eels: 27% (4/15), Rabbitohs: 36% (5/14)
Points Scored This Season: Eels: 309, Rabbitohs: 286
Points Conceded This Season: Eels: 438, Rabbitohs: 398
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Rabbitohs won by 16 points (42-26) on 25th May 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Eels: 37.5%, Rabbitohs: 100%
HT/FT Double: Eels: 20.0%, Rabbitohs: 28.6%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Eels: 20, Rabbitohs: 24
Win Percentages: Eels: 49.8%, Rabbitohs: 50.2%

The Eels have struggled lately losing four out of their last five matches. The Rabbitohs on the other hand have been decent, winning four of their last five. The Eels average 20.6 points per match but concede 29.2, while the Rabbitohs score 20.4 and let in 28.4. The Rabbitohs have a slightly better completion rate (78% to the Eels’ 75%) and tackle efficiency (86.2% vs. 86.7%) giving the Rabbitohs a slight edge this game, this game really could go either way with both teams sitting so comfortably near the bottom of the ladder.

Alex Johnston and Blaize Talagi are both solid bets for first try scorer bot sitting well in the $8 odds range, Rabbitohs have the early odds on reaching 10, 20, and 30 points so smart money would be on Johnston for the first try.

Final Score Prediction: Rabbitohs 24-20

Suggested Betting Tip: Rabbitohs to win by 1-12 @ $3.15 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 50.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Sharks vs Titans

Friday, July 5, 2024

6:00 PM @ C.ex Coffs International Stadium, Coffs Harbour

This Friday night, the Sharks are hosting the Titans at C.ex Coffs International Stadium in Coffs Harbour. Kickoff is at 6:00 pm, and the weather is expected to be rainy with temperatures between 10-19 degrees.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Sharks: 24.5, Titans: 21.8
Average Points Against Per Match: Sharks: 19.4, Titans: 26.9
Current Form: Sharks: LLWLL, Titans: LWLLW
Completion Rate: Sharks: 80%, Titans: 81%
Tackle Efficiency: Sharks: 87.3%, Titans: 87.5%
Wins This Season: Sharks: 67% (10/15), Titans: 29% (4/14)
Points Scored This Season: Sharks: 368, Titans: 305
Points Conceded This Season: Sharks: 291, Titans: 376
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sharks won by 30 points (36-6) on 11th August 2023
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Sharks: 100%, Titans: 50%
HT/FT Double: Sharks: 20%, Titans: 21.4%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Sharks: 36, Titans: 12
Win Percentages: Sharks: 55.5%, Titans: 44.5%

For a team near the top of the ladder the Sharks have been a super inconsistent lately, with a recent form of LLWLL. The Titans have also had a rough patch but managed a win in their last game with a five week form of LWLLW. The Sharks are averaging 24.5 points per match while conceding 19.4, compared to the Titans’ 21.8 points for and 26.9 against.

The Sharks have a solid record at Coffs, having never lost here, but we need to factor in the voodoo that beholds the Titans as they have never won a game here either. Clearly this game is in favour of the Sharks, it would be silly not to back them.

Ronaldo Mulitalo and Daniel Atkinson of the Sharks and Alofiana Khan-Pereira from the Titans are all first try scorer favourites sitting under $10, Sharks are hot favourite to lead the charge in the race to 10 points so best bet is on Mulitalo for the first try.

Final Score Prediction: Sharks 36-12

Suggested Betting Tip: Sharks to win by 13+ @ $2.50 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 47.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Broncos vs Panthers

Friday, July 5, 2024

8:00 PM @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

This Friday night, the Broncos will face off against the Panthers at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Kickoff is at 8:00 pm, and the forecast predicts a partly cloudy, light evening with temperatures between 11-22 degrees.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Broncos: 23.4, Panthers: 22.8
Average Points Against Per Match: Broncos: 22.0, Panthers: 15.6
Current Form: Broncos: WLLLL, Panthers: WLWWL
Completion Rate: Broncos: 74%, Panthers: 80%
Tackle Efficiency: Broncos: 87.3%, Panthers: 87.9%
Wins This Season: Broncos: 47% (7/15), Panthers: 67% (10/15)
Points Scored This Season: Broncos: 351, Panthers: 342
Points Conceded This Season: Broncos: 330, Panthers: 234
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Panthers won by 22 points (34-12) on 21st March 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Broncos: 70%, Panthers: 81.8%
HT/FT Double: Broncos: 46.7%, Panthers: 60.0%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Broncos: 12, Panthers: 30
Win Percentages: Broncos: 46.05%, Panthers: 53.95%

The Broncos have lost their last four games (WLLLL), while the Panthers did happen to lose last week but have also won three of their last five (WLWWL). The Broncos are averaging 23.4 points per game but concede 22, while the Panthers score 22.8 on average and let in only 15.6. With a higher completion rate (80% vs. 74%) and slightly better tackle efficiency (87.9% vs. 87.3%), the Panthers are the better team. They’ve also won more games this season (67% compared to the Broncos’ 47%).

Don’t count the Broncos out of the game though, they desperately need a win this week as the battle for the top 8 gets tighter.

Panthers are hot tips for first try with Brian To’o Sunia Turuva both sitting at 7.75 odds and the only two players under 10.00 odds, with Panthers being the hot favourites in the race for 10 points a good bet is to throw a bet on both.

Final Score Prediction: Panthers 30-12

Suggested Betting Tip: Panthers to win by 13+ @ $- with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 44.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Bulldogs vs Warriors

Saturday, July 6, 2024

3:00 PM @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

This Saturday afternoon, the Bulldogs are set to tackle the Warriors at Accor Stadium in Sydney. Kickoff is at 3:00 pm, and the weather is looking cloudy with a high chance of showers becoming light during the evening with temperatures between 12-18 degrees.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Bulldogs: 21.0, Warriors: 21.5
Average Points Against Per Match: Bulldogs: 16.7, Warriors: 23.4
Current Form: Bulldogs: WWWLW, Warriors: WWLLW
Completion Rate: Bulldogs: 78%, Warriors: 81%
Tackle Efficiency: Bulldogs: 86%, Warriors: 88.6%
Wins This Season: Bulldogs: 53% (8/15), Warriors: 44% (7/16)
Points Scored This Season: Bulldogs: 315, Warriors: 344
Points Conceded This Season: Bulldogs: 251, Warriors: 375
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Warriors won by 12 points (24-12) on 12th May 2023
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Bulldogs: 71.4%, Warriors: 83.3%
HT/FT Double: Bulldogs: 33.3%, Warriors: 31.3%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Bulldogs: 24, Warriors: 16
Win Percentages: Bulldogs: 53.9%, Warriors: 46.1%

The Bulldogs have won four of their last five games (WWWLW). The Warriors have also been playing pretty decent but have had mixed results (WWLLW). Despite the Warriors averaging slightly more points per match (21.5 to the Bulldogs’ 21.0), the Bulldogs’ defensive stats are stronger, conceding only 16.7 points per game compared to the Warriors’ 23.4. The Bulldogs have also been more reliable when leading at halftime, winning 71.4% of those games versus the Warriors’ 83.3%.

This game is for the Bulldogs, if they lose they have the chance to be knocked out of the eight and we can’t see them giving up that easily.

Bulldogs are the solid favourites for getting to 10, 20, and 30 points first, however, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is odds favourite for first try scorer at 9.00 odds while Blake Wilson and Jacob Kiraz follow closely behind him, expect the Warriors to jump out of the gate early, but my bets on the Bulldogs getting the first try.

Final Score Prediction: Bulldogs 24-16

Suggested Betting Tip: Bulldogs to win by 1-12 @ $2.90 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 45.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Wests Tigers vs Storm

Saturday, July 6, 2024

5:30 PM @ Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

This Saturday evening, the Wests Tigers take on the Melbourne Storm at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney. Kickoff is at 5:30 pm, and the weather is looking to be partly cloudy throughout the day with a high chance of showers and evening temperatures around 16-17 degrees.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Wests Tigers: 17.3, Storm: 26.7
Average Points Against Per Match: Wests Tigers: 26.5, Storm: 19.1
Current Form: Wests Tigers: LLWWL, Storm: LWWWW
Completion Rate: Wests Tigers: 79%, Storm: 78%
Tackle Efficiency: Wests Tigers: 86.7%, Storm: 87%
Wins This Season: Wests Tigers: 27% (4/15), Storm: 80% (12/15)
Points Scored This Season: Wests Tigers: 259, Storm: 400
Points Conceded This Season: Wests Tigers: 398, Storm: 287
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Storm won by 22 points (28-6) on 17th June 2023
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Wests Tigers: 50%, Storm: 100%
HT/FT Double: Wests Tigers: 13.3%, Storm: 66.7%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Wests Tigers: 0, Storm: 36
Win Percentages: Wests Tigers: 40.6%, Storm: 59.4%

The Wests Tigers sitting far too comfortably on the bottom of the ladder have pepped up these past few weeks managing two wins from their last three games (LLWWL). The current ladder kings however are in great shape, winning four in a row (LWWWW). The Tigers are averaging 17.3 points per game but concede 26.5, while the Storm are scoring 26.7 on average and allowing only 19.1 points which after this weeks game we expect to change significantly.

Let’s not beat around the bush here, the Storm are arguably the best team this season and the Wests Tigers are arguably the worst (surprisingly tied with the Eels with the Titans not far in front), this should be an absolute flooding as the Storm gets bigger, let’s hope the Tigers have a life raft.

Storm are sitting on 1.28 odds to reach 30 points so its safe to say their score isn’t going to be low this round, Papenhuyzen, Warbrick, Bradley, and Faalogo of the Storm all tips the scales of first try scorer in their favour so smart bets are on Storm favourites taking the first try.

Final Score Prediction: Storm 36-0

Suggested Betting Tip: Storm to win by 13+ @ $1.83 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 50.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Cowboys vs Sea Eagles

Saturday, July 6, 2024

7:35 PM @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

This Saturday night, the Cowboys will clash with the Sea Eagles at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville. Kickoff is at 7:35 pm, and the weather is looking to be cloudy with a high chance of showers with a warm 20-21 degrees at game time.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Cowboys: 24.8, Sea Eagles: 23.4
Average Points Against Per Match: Cowboys: 24.7, Sea Eagles: 21.5
Current Form: Cowboys: WWLWW, Sea Eagles: LWLWL
Completion Rate: Cowboys: 77%, Sea Eagles: 77%
Tackle Efficiency: Cowboys: 87.6%, Sea Eagles: 85.7%
Wins This Season: Cowboys: 56% (9/16), Sea Eagles: 47% (7/15)
Points Scored This Season: Cowboys: 397, Sea Eagles: 351
Points Conceded This Season: Cowboys: 395, Sea Eagles: 323
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Cowboys won by 11 points (19-8) on 15th July 2023
Reliability to win after leading HT: Cowboys: 87.5%, Sea Eagles: 57.1%
HT/FT Double: Cowboys: 43.8%, Sea Eagles: 26.7%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Cowboys: 23, Sea Eagles: 24
Win Percentages: Cowboys: 48.95%, Sea Eagles: 51.05%

The Cowboys have been finally showing they are still top 8 material these past few weeks, winning four of their last five matches (WWLWW). The Sea Eagles, however, have been insanely inconsistent with a win-loss pattern in their last five games (LWLWL). The Cowboys are averaging 24.8 points per game but concede 24.7, while the Sea Eagles score 23.4 and let in 21.5. Notably, the Cowboys have a higher tackle efficiency (87.6% compared to 85.7%) and a better head-to-head record at this venue. The Sea Eagles’ slightly better defensive record and recent performances suggest they have a slim edge.

The Cowboys are due for a loss and the Sea Eagles can’t bear to break their win-loss pattern so the Eagles this week have the win, their defense has been slightly better, while they are playing at Queensland Country Bank Stadium giving the Cowboys a slight edge, the Sea Eagles will be fighting hard to get back into the top 8 this week and we see them getting the win.

Cowboys have slightly better odds for reaching 10 points first with Kyle Feldt being the only player sitting under $10, followed closely by Jason Saab, Murray Taulagi, and Tommy Talau, Im holding off on firsttry scorer this game as its far too close to call.

Final Score Prediction: Sea Eagles 24-23

Suggested Betting Tip: Sea Eagles to win by 1-12 @ $3.25 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 50.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Roosters vs Dragons

Sunday, July 7, 2024

2:00 PM @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney

This Sunday afternoon, the Roosters face off against the Dragons at Allianz Stadium in Sydney. Kickoff is at 2:00 pm, and the weather forecast predicts cloudy skies, and a high chance of showers with temperatures around 17-18 degrees.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Roosters: 30.0, Dragons: 21.5
Average Points Against Per Match: Roosters: 17.8, Dragons: 23.5
Current Form: Roosters: WLWWW, Dragons: LWWLW
Completion Rate: Roosters: 80%, Dragons: 78%
Tackle Efficiency: Roosters: 87.4%, Dragons: 88.5%
Wins This Season: Roosters: 62% (10/16), Dragons: 53% (8/15)
Points Scored This Season: Roosters: 480, Dragons: 323
Points Conceded This Season: Roosters: 285, Dragons: 353
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Roosters won by 12 points (26-14) on 5th April 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Roosters: 83.3%, Dragons: 62.5%
HT/FT Double: Roosters: 66.7%, Dragons: 41.7%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Roosters: 27, Dragons: 16
Win Percentages: Roosters: 57.61%, Dragons: 42.39%

The Roosters are in strong form, winning four of their last five games and sitting on a three game winning streak (WLWWW). The Dragons, while showing some promise, have had mixed results (LWWLW). The Roosters average a solid 30 points per game, while only conceding 17.8, the Dragons score is significantly poorer at 21.5 but they are also allowing 23.5 points (meaning the Roosters are likely to blitz this game).

The Roosters have a marginally higher completion rate (80% vs. 78%) and slightly stronger tackle efficiency (87.4% vs. 88.5%). With the Roosters’ better attack and defense, they are absolutely favoured to win this week and knock the Dragons back out of the 8.

The Roosters are a hot tip for getting to 10 points first with their odds improving the closer they get to 30, Dominic Young is the Best bet this round for First Try Scorer at $6.80 with Daniel Tupou coming in second at $8.75, pop a single bet on both to cover your bases but this will 100% be a Roosters game.

Final Score Prediction: Roosters 27-16

Suggested Betting Tip: Roosters to win by 1-12 @ $3.25 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 53.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Raiders vs Knights

Sunday, July 7, 2024

4:05 PM @ GIO Stadium, Canberra

This Sunday afternoon, the Raiders will take on the Knights at GIO Stadium in Canberra. Kickoff is set for 4:05 pm, and the forecast predicts a cool and partly cloudy day with a medium chance of light showers, and temperatures around 13-14 degrees at game time.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Raiders: 20.1, Knights: 18.8
Average Points Against Per Match: Raiders: 26.1, Knights: 21.9
Current Form: Raiders: LWLLL, Knights: WLLLW
Completion Rate: Raiders: 77%, Knights: 80%
Tackle Efficiency: Raiders: 88%, Knights: 88.7%
Wins This Season: Raiders: 47% (7/15), Knights: 47% (7/15)
Points Scored This Season: Raiders: 302, Knights: 282
Points Conceded This Season: Raiders: 391, Knights: 329
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Raiders won by 16 points (28-12) on 7th March 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Raiders: 100%, Knights: 83.3%
HT/FT Double: Raiders: 33.3%, Knights: 33.3%

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Raiders: 18, Knights: 24
Win Percentages: Raiders: 48.4%, Knights: 51.6%

The struggling Raiders are currently sitting on a three game losing streak, having lost four of their last five matches (LWLLL). The Knights, while also inconsistent, have a slightly better recent form winning their last game after also sitting on a three game losing streak (WLLLW). Both fighting for a place in the eight, the Raiders average 20.1 points per game but concede 26.1, while the Knights have been scoring 18.8 and allow 21.9 points.

Both teams have a similar completion rate, with the Knights slightly ahead at 80% compared to the Raiders’ 77%. Tackle efficiency is also close, with the Knights at 88.7% and the Raiders at 88%. The Raiders have a stronger track record at home, but the Knights’ recent performance gives them a slight edge.

Greg Marzhew and Enari Tuala both from the Newcastle Knights are odds favourite for the first try, followed closely by Xavier Savage, Jordan Rapana, and Kalyn Ponga, race to 10 has the posibility of going either way but my bets are on the three Knights to take first try.

Final Score Prediction: Knights 24-18

Suggested Betting Tip: Knights to win by 1-12 @ $3.15 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 48.5 @ $1.90 with bet365