NRL Round 1
The 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership kicks off with a historic Las Vegas double-header on March 2, featuring the Raiders vs. Warriors and Panthers vs. Sharks at Allegiant Stadium. The action then returns to Australia, with the Roosters facing the Broncos in Sydney on March 6, followed by a huge weekend of footy across Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Get all the latest NRL betting tips and catch every game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Nine. 🏉🔥
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NRL Round 1 Tips and Predictions
Raiders vs Warriors
Sunday, March 2, 2025
11:00 am @ Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Final Score Prediction
Warriors
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Canberra Raiders set at $2.25, and $1.65 for the New Zealand Warriors, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmaker heavily favours the Warriors with a 57.69% probability, while our analysis suggests they only have a 51.5% chance of winning. Similarly, the bookmaker undervalues the Raiders, offering them only a 42.31% chance, whereas our analysis gives them a stronger 48.5%.
This difference creates an edge when betting on the Raiders. According to our analysis, the true odds for the Raiders should be closer to $2.06, but the bookmaker is offering $2.25, which provides value.
The betting edge lies in the Raiders being undervalued by the bookmaker. At odds of $2.25, they present a value betting opportunity.
Ball Gravity Effect
Minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats (2024)
- Average Points For Per Match: Canberra: 19.8, New Zealand: 21.3 – (New Zealand by 1.5 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Canberra: 25.0, New Zealand: 23.9 – (New Zealand by 1.1 points)
- Current Form: Canberra: LLWWW, New Zealand: LLLLW – (Canberra streak 3)
- HT/FT Double: Canberra: 33.3%, New Zealand: 25.0% – (Canberra by 8.3%)
- Highest Score For: Canberra: 41, New Zealand: 42 – (New Zealand by 1 point)
- Highest Score Against: Canberra: 48, New Zealand: 66 – (Canberra by 18 points)
- Biggest Win: Canberra: 33, New Zealand: 30 – (Canberra by 3 points)
- Biggest Loss: Canberra: 40, New Zealand: 60 – (Canberra by 20 points)
- Highest Total Match Score: 72 points (Both teams)
- Lowest Total Match Score: 22 points (Both teams)
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Canberra: 100.0%, New Zealand: 66.7% – (Canberra by 33.3%)
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Canberra: 0.0%, New Zealand: 33.3% – (Canberra by 33.3%)
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Canberra: 28.6%, New Zealand: 21.4% – (Canberra by 7.2%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Raiders to win by 1-12 @ $3.30 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 43.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Panthers vs Sharks
Sunday, March 2, 2025
3:30 pm @ Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Final Score Prediction
Panthers
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Penrith Panthers set at $1.55, and $2.45 for the Cronulla Sharks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmaker heavily favours the Panthers with a 61.52% probability, while our analysis suggests they only have a 51.8% chance of winning. Similarly, the bookmaker undervalues the Sharks, offering them only a 38.75% chance, whereas our analysis gives them a much stronger 48.2%.
This difference creates an edge when betting on the Sharks. According to our analysis, the true odds for the Sharks should be closer to $2.07, but the bookmaker is offering $2.45, which provides significant value.
If our analysis is correct, betting on the Sharks would be profitable in the long run because their actual probability of winning is higher than what the bookmaker’s odds imply.
The betting edge lies in the Sharks being undervalued by the bookmaker. At odds of $2.45, they present a value betting opportunity.
Ball Gravity Effect
Minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats (2024)
- Average Points For Per Match: Penrith: 24.1, Cronulla: 25.7 – (Cronulla by 1.6 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Penrith: 15.4, Cronulla: 19.0 – (Penrith by 3.6 points)
- Current Form: Penrith: WWWWW, Cronulla: LWLWL – (Penrith streak 5)
- HT/FT Double: Penrith: 55.6%, Cronulla: 29.6% – (Penrith by 26%)
- Highest Score For: Penrith: 46, Cronulla: 58 – (Cronulla by 12 points)
- Highest Score Against: Penrith: 34, Cronulla: 42 – (Penrith by 8 points)
- Biggest Win: Penrith: 42, Cronulla: 52 – (Cronulla by 10 points)
- Biggest Loss: Penrith: 14, Cronulla: 42 – (Penrith by 28 points)
- Highest Total Match Score: Penrith: 70, Cronulla: 68 – (Penrith by 2 points)
- Lowest Total Match Score: Penrith: 8, Cronulla: 26 – (Penrith by 18 points)
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Penrith: 83.3%, Cronulla: 88.9% – (Cronulla by 5.6%)
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Penrith: 16.7%, Cronulla: 11.1% – (Cronulla by 5.6%)
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Penrith: 55.6%, Cronulla: 40.0% – (Penrith by 15.6%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Sharks to win by 1-12 @ $3.25 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 40.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Roosters vs Broncos
Thursday, March 6, 2025
8:00 pm @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Roosters
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Sydney Roosters is set at $2.70, and $1.45 for the Brisbane Broncos, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmaker sees the Broncos as clear favourites, giving them a 65.05% chance of winning. But our analysis suggests they only have a 54.8% chance. That’s a big gap! Meanwhile, the Roosters are being underrated – the bookies give them just a 34.95% chance, while our numbers put them at 45.2%.
This means there’s value in betting on the Roosters. According to our analysis, their true odds should be around $2.21, but the bookmaker is offering $2.70. That’s an overlay, creating a potential long-term profitable bet if our probabilities are accurate.
If you’re looking for value, the Roosters at $2.70 offer a solid betting edge. The Broncos may still be the favourites, but the bookies are overestimating their chances – making the Roosters the smarter bet at these odds.
Ball Gravity Effect
Minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Roosters: 22.4, Broncos: 30.8 – (Broncos by 8.4 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Roosters: 25.3, Broncos: 19.3 – (Broncos by 6 points)
- Current Form: Roosters: LWWLL, Broncos: WWWLW – (Broncos on a 1-game win streak, Roosters on a 2-game losing streak ending the 2024 season)
- Completion Rate: Roosters: 77%, Broncos: 81% – (Broncos by 4%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Roosters: 85.2%, Broncos: 88.1% – (Broncos by 2.9%)
- Wins This Season: Roosters: 50% (6/12), Broncos: 75% (9/12) – (Broncos by 3 wins)
- Points Scored This Season: Roosters: 269, Broncos: 370 – (Broncos by 101 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Roosters: 304, Broncos: 232 – (Broncos by 72 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Broncos won by 22 points (40-18) on 3rd May 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Roosters: 61.5%, Broncos: 88.2% – (Broncos by 26.7%)
- HT/FT Double: Roosters: 33.3%, Broncos: 62.5% – (Broncos by 29.2%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Broncos 1-12 @ $2.80 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 42.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Wests Tigers vs Knights
Friday, March 7, 2025
6:00 pm @ Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Wests Tigers
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Wests Tigers is set at $1.80, and $2.00 for the Newcastle Knights, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies see the Wests Tigers as slight favourites, giving them a 52.63% chance of winning. But our numbers suggest they only have a 47.6% chance, meaning the bookies are overestimating them.
On the other hand, the Knights are slightly undervalued. The bookies give them a 47.37% chance, but our analysis suggests they actually have a 52.4% chance of winning.
Since the Knights are priced at $2.00, but their true odds (based on our probabilities) should be around $1.91, there’s a small betting edge on the Knights at these odds.
Not a massive edge, but if you’re looking for a value play, the Knights at $2.00 offer slightly better odds than they should. It’s a close match, but the smart money leans towards Newcastle!
Ball Gravity Effect
Minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Tigers: 19.3, Knights: 19.6 – (Knights by 0.3 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Tigers: 31.3, Knights: 21.3 – (Knights by 10 points)
- Current Form: Tigers: LLWWL, Knights: WLWWW – (Knights on a 3-game winning streak ending last season)
- Completion Rate: Tigers: 75%, Knights: 80% – (Knights by 5%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Tigers: 84.3%, Knights: 88.7% – (Knights by 4.4%)
- Wins This Season: Tigers: 30% (3/10), Knights: 60% (6/10) – (Knights by 3 wins)
- Points Scored This Season: Tigers: 193, Knights: 196 – (Knights by 3 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Tigers: 313, Knights: 213 – (Knights by 100 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Knights won by 6 points (20-14) on 11th May 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Tigers: 60.0%, Knights: 83.3% – (Knights by 23.3%)
- HT/FT Double: Tigers: 12.5%, Knights: 41.7% – (Knights by 29.2%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Knights H-2-H @ $1.83 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 41.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs
Friday, March 7, 2025
8:05 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Final Score Prediction
Dolphins
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Redcliffe Dolphins is set at $1.57, and $2.35 for the South Sydney Rabbitohs, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are overestimating the Dolphins, giving them a 59.98% chance of winning, while our analysis suggests their real probability is only 56.5%. That’s a noticeable difference, meaning they may be slightly overpriced.
On the other hand, the Rabbitohs are slightly undervalued. The bookies have them at 40.02%, but our numbers put them at 43.5%. The difference isn’t huge, but there’s a small edge in backing the Rabbitohs at $2.35, as their true odds should be closer to $2.30.
Not a massive value play, but if you’re looking for the sharper bet, there’s a slight edge on the Rabbitohs at $2.35. The Dolphins may still be favourites, but they’re not quite as strong as the odds suggest.
Ball Gravity Effect
- Team kicking at 5° – North-Northeast: The combined gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon would cause a slight drift to the right.
- Team kicking at 185° – South-Southwest: The combined gravitational pull would cause a slight drift to the left.
The gravitational influences of the Sun and Moon on the ball during a 40-meter kick or pass result in a displacement of approximately 1.22 centimetres, which is minimal but could be a make or break in some scenarios. Players and coaches should consider this slight effect during critical gameplay moments.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Dolphins: 24.0, Rabbitohs: 20.6 – (Dolphins by 3.4 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Dolphins: 24.1, Rabbitohs: 28.4 – (Dolphins by 4.3 points)
- Current Form: Dolphins: WLLWL, Rabbitohs: LLLLL – (Rabbitohs on a losing streak leading into the end of last season)
- Completion Rate: Dolphins: 78%, Rabbitohs: 75% – (Dolphins by 3%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Dolphins: 86.5%, Rabbitohs: 84.9% – (Dolphins by 1.6%)
- Wins This Season: Dolphins: 50% (5/10), Rabbitohs: 20% (2/10) – (Dolphins by 3 wins)
- Points Scored This Season: Dolphins: 240, Rabbitohs: 206 – (Dolphins by 34 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Dolphins: 241, Rabbitohs: 284 – (Dolphins by 43 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Dolphins won by 8 points (36-28) on 11th July 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Dolphins: 69.2%, Rabbitohs: 85.7% – (Rabbitohs by 16.5%)
- HT/FT Double: Dolphins: 37.5%, Rabbitohs: 25.0% – (Dolphins by 12.5%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.65 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 36.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Dragons vs Bulldogs
Saturday, March 8, 2025
5:30 pm @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Dragons
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for St. George Illawarra Dragons is set at $2.80, and $1.42 for the Canterbury Bulldogs, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are heavily backing the Bulldogs, giving them a 66.33% chance of winning. But our analysis suggests their actual probability is only 52.7%—that’s a huge difference!
Meanwhile, the Dragons are massively undervalued. The bookies give them just a 33.67% chance, while our numbers say they should be 47.3%—meaning their true odds should be around $2.11, but they’re being offered at $2.80.
This is a big value play on the Dragons. The bookies are overrating the Bulldogs, and there’s serious betting edge in backing the Dragons at $2.80. If our numbers are right, this is a highly profitable bet.
Ball Gravity Effect
Minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Dragons: 21.2, Bulldogs: 22.0 – (Bulldogs by 0.8 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Dragons: 26.4, Bulldogs: 18.0 – (Bulldogs by 8.4 points)
- Current Form: Dragons: LWLLL, Bulldogs: WWWLL – (Dragons on a 3-game losing streak, Bulldogs on a 2-game losing streak ending last season)
- Completion Rate: Dragons: 76%, Bulldogs: 80% – (Bulldogs by 4%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Dragons: 85.5%, Bulldogs: 88.2% – (Bulldogs by 2.7%)
- Wins This Season: Dragons: 30% (3/10), Bulldogs: 60% (6/10) – (Bulldogs by 3 wins)
- Points Scored This Season: Dragons: 212, Bulldogs: 220 – (Bulldogs by 8 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Dragons: 264, Bulldogs: 180 – (Bulldogs by 84 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Bulldogs won by 18 points (28-10) on 10th August 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Dragons: 66.7%, Bulldogs: 72.7% – (Bulldogs by 6%)
- HT/FT Double: Dragons: 33.3%, Bulldogs: 33.3% – (Even)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Bulldogs H-2-H @ $1.52 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 39.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys
Saturday, March 8, 2025
7:35 pm @ 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Sea Eagles
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Manly Sea Eagles is set at $1.57, and $2.35 for the North Queensland Cowboys, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies heavily favour the Sea Eagles, giving them a 59.98% chance of winning. But our analysis suggests they only have a 53.1% chance—meaning they’re slightly overpriced.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are undervalued. The bookies give them just a 40.02% chance, but our numbers put them at 46.9%, meaning their true odds should be around $2.13, but they’re being offered at $2.35.
There’s a small betting edge on the Cowboys at $2.35. It’s not a massive gap, but if you’re looking for value, the Cowboys are the smarter bet at these odds. The Sea Eagles may still be slight favourites, but they’re not as dominant as the bookies suggest.
Ball Gravity Effect
Minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Manly: 26.4, Cowboys: 27.4 – (Cowboys by 1 point)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Manly: 21.7, Cowboys: 23.7 – (Manly by 2 points)
- Current Form: Manly: WWLWL, Cowboys: WLWWW – (Cowboys on a 3-game winning streak, Manly on a 1-game losing streak ending the 2024 season)
- Completion Rate: Manly: 78%, Cowboys: 81% – (Cowboys by 3%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Manly: 86.9%, Cowboys: 88.1% – (Cowboys by 1.2%)
- Wins This Season: Manly: 60% (6/10), Cowboys: 70% (7/10) – (Cowboys by 1 win)
- Points Scored This Season: Manly: 264, Cowboys: 274 – (Cowboys by 10 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Manly: 217, Cowboys: 237 – (Manly by 20 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Manly won by 1 point (21-20) on 6th July 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Manly: 69.2%, Cowboys: 85.7% – (Cowboys by 16.5%)
- HT/FT Double: Manly: 37.5%, Cowboys: 50.0% – (Cowboys by 12.5%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Sea Eagles H-2-H @ $1.53 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 44.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Storm vs Eels
Sunday, March 9, 2025
4:05 pm @ AAMI Park, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Storm
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Melbourne Storm is set at $1.25, and $3.80 for the Parramatta Eels, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmaker heavily favours the Storm, implying an 75.26% chance of winning. But based on our analysis, their actual probability is only 60.9%—still the likely winner, but nowhere near as dominant as the odds suggest.
Meanwhile, the Eels are given just a 24.74% chance by the bookmaker, while our calculations suggest they actually have a 39.1% chance—meaning they’re significantly undervalued in the market.
Our numbers indicate the Eels should be priced closer to $2.56, but the bookies have them at a juicy $3.80. That’s a massive gap and a potential value opportunity. If our probabilities are accurate, backing the Eels at these odds could be a profitable play.
Even though the Storm are favourites, the real edge in this game is betting on the Eels at $3.80.
Ball Gravity Effect
The total gravitational influence is minimal.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Storm: 28.8, Eels: 23.4 – (Storm by 5.4 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Storm: 18.7, Eels: 29.8 – (Storm by 11.1 points)
- Current Form: Storm: WWWLW, Eels: LLLWW – (Storm on a 1-game win streak, Eels on a 2-game win streak ending the regular 2024 season)
- Completion Rate: Storm: 81%, Eels: 76% – (Storm by 5%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Storm: 89.2%, Eels: 85.6% – (Storm by 3.6%)
- Wins This Season: Storm: 70% (7/10), Eels: 50% (5/10) – (Storm by 2 wins)
- Points Scored This Season: Storm: 288, Eels: 234 – (Storm by 54 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Storm: 187, Eels: 298 – (Storm by 111 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Storm won by 18 points (32-14) on 26th July 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Storm: 100.0%, Eels: 46.2% – (Storm by 53.8%)
- HT/FT Double: Storm: 70.8%, Eels: 25.0% – (Storm by 45.8%)
Check out all this weeks NRL Multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.
2025 NRL Telstra Premiership – Round 1 Schedule
Raiders vs Warriors
- Sunday, March 2, 2025
- 11:00 am @ Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Panthers vs Sharks
- Sunday, March 2, 2025
- 3:30 pm @ Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Roosters vs Broncos
- Thursday, March 6, 2025
- 8:00 pm @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Wests Tigers vs Knights
- Friday, March 7, 2025
- 6:00 pm @ Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs
- Friday, March 7, 2025
- 8:05 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Dragons vs Bulldogs
- Saturday, March 8, 2025
- 5:30 pm @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys
- Saturday, March 8, 2025
- 7:35 pm @ 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Storm vs Eels
- Sunday, March 9, 2025
- 4:05 pm @ AAMI Park, Melbourne
NRL Draw
Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.
NRL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do NRL tips; our experts also specialise in AFL betting and horse racing tips.
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