2024 NRL Grand Final Expert Betting Tips
The 2024 NRL Grand Final has finally arrive, and what a ride it has been to get here! The Storm have held strong at the top of the ladder for most of the year and the while having a few minor hiccups have also maintained their dominance, on Sunday night they will both be stepping onto the hallowed turf at Accor Stadium where one team will go down in the history books.
Will the Storm win their first Grand Final since 2020, or will the Panthers make history and win their fourth Grand Final in a row?
Using advanced tracking, data analysis and statistics, we have ran the analysis thousands of times to get the following results to get you the most accurate tips and predictions for this weeks NRL Grand Final.
Storm vs Panthers
Sunday, October 6, 2024
7:30 PM @ Accor Stadium, Sydney
Final Scores
Storm
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Melbourne Storm is set at $1.85, and $2.00 for the Penrith Panthers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
This equates to a 4.46% higher chance of Melbourne Storm winning, in line with the winning margin odds suggesting a higher chance of the Storm winning by 1-12 as shown further down the page.
We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season.
Currently the odds for the Panthers are undervalued by the bookmakers and Panthers should actually be closer to $2.03, this presents a value opportunity for a Penrith bet.
Line Prediction
Winning Margin Probabilities
The percentages are normalised to 100% based on the given odds indicating a strong lean towards Melbourne Storm winning by 1-12 points.
Historically, when playing against each other the Storm and the Panthers total score is higher than the total points 40.5 so an OVER bet is recommended.
Half-time/Full-time Probabilities
Anytime Try Scorers
| Penrith Panthers | Melbourne Storm |
|---|---|
| Brian To’o – 1.92
52.08%
|
Xavier Coates – 2.02
49.50%
|
| Sunia Turuva – 2.15
46.51%
|
Will Warbrick – 2.10
47.62%
|
| Dylan Edwards – 2.80
35.71%
|
Ryan Papenhuyzen – 2.55
39.22%
|
| Nathan Cleary – 3.40
29.41%
|
Eliesa Katoa – 3.15
31.75%
|
| Paul Alamoti – 3.60
27.78%
|
Jahrome Hughes – 3.30
30.30%
|
Melbourne Storm have a number of super strong contenders likely to score a try therefor reducing your betting opportunities if you wish to bet on try scorers, however, Brian To’o of the Pentrith Panthers is the only standout for the Panthers offering a significantly higher chance of the bet succeeding, in this instance betting on Brian To’o is recommended.
Players to Score Two or More Tries
| Penrith Panthers | Melbourne Storm |
|---|---|
| Brian To’o – 5.20
19.23%
|
Xavier Coates – 5.60
17.86%
|
| Sunia Turuva – 6.00
16.67%
|
Will Warbrick – 6.00
16.67%
|
| Dylan Edwards – 10.00
10.00%
|
Ryan Papenhuyzen – 7.50
13.33%
|
| Nathan Cleary – 15.00
6.67%
|
Jahrome Hughes – 12.50
8.00%
|
| Paul Alamoti – 16.00
6.25%
|
Eliesa Katoa – 12.50
8.00%
|
Brian To’o has the best odds for placing a bet on a player to score two or more tries, however, Will Warbrick and Jahrome Hughes are the only two players to have score two or more tries in at least two of their last five games.
Clive Churchill Medal
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Storm: 29.9, Panthers: 24.5 – (Storm by 5.4 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Storm: 18.3, Panthers: 15.8 – (Panthers by 2.5 points)
- Current Form: Storm: WLWWW, Panthers: LWWWW – (Panthers streak 4)
- Completion Rate: Storm: 79%, Panthers: 80% – (Panthers by 1%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Storm: 87.3%, Panthers: 88% – (Panthers by 0.7%)
- Wins This Season: Storm: 81% (21/26), Panthers: 73% (19/26) – (Storm by 8%)
- Points Scored This Season: Storm: 777, Panthers: 636 – (Storm by 141 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Storm: 477, Panthers: 410 – (Panthers by 67 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Storm won by 2 points (24-22) on 15th August 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Storm: 100%, Panthers: 82.4% – (Storm by 17.6%)
- HT/FT Double: Storm: 73.1%, Panthers: 53.8% – (Storm by 19.3%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Storm to win by 1-12 @ $2.90 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 40.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365
Same Game Multi:
Storm 1-12
Total Points: OVER 40.5
HT/FT Double: Storm/Storm
Anytime Try Scorer: Brian To’o
Total: $15.91 with Bet365
This Weeks NRL Multi
Storm 1-12
Total Points: OVER 40.5
HT/FT Double: Storm/Storm
Highest Scoring Half: Second
Anytime Try Scorer: Brian To’o
Total: $29.76 with Bet365
Check out all this weeks NRL Multi Tips on our Multi Bets Page.
NRL Draw
Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.
NRL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do NRL tips; our experts also specialise in AFL betting and horse racing tips.
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NRL Grand Final
The NRL Finals series is without a doubt the best part of the rugby league season. It brings together the top eight teams from the regular season in a battle for glory. Each match in the finals is packed with high-intensity action, showcasing the skill and determination of the players as they fight for a spot in the coveted Grand Final. The competition reaches its climax during the Preliminary Finals, where the final two teams emerge, ready to face off in the ultimate testament of determination.
The NRL Grand Final, a highlight of Australia’s sporting calendar. Fans from across the country and the world tune in to witness the crowning of the NRL champions. The atmosphere at the Grand Final is electric, with every moment filled with anticipation and excitement. It’s more than just a match; it’s the culmination of months of hard work, a celebration of the sport, and a spectacle of grit, passion, and strategy.
For rugby league fans and newcomers alike, the Grand Final is a day of unforgettable moments. The match isn’t just about winning—it’s about legacy, with teams giving everything they have to etch their names in history.
NRL Grand Final Venue
This year’s NRL Grand Final will be held at the iconic Stadium Australia (Accor Stadium) in New South Wales. With a seating capacity of 83,500, the atmosphere is sure to be electric. Whether you’re in the stadium or watching from home, you can expect an unforgettable experience.
NRL Grand Final Tickets
For fans, securing a ticket to the NRL Grand Final is a top priority. The experience of watching the Grand Final live in the stadium is unmatched, with the crowd’s energy adding to the intensity of the match. Keep an eye out for ticket release dates to make sure you don’t miss out on this spectacular event.
What Time is the NRL Grand Final?
A common question from fans is, “What time does the NRL Grand Final start?” The kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM AEST. This time slot is designed to maximise viewership, ensuring fans from various time zones can tune in and enjoy the season’s most important match.
The NRL Finals series is where the competition heats up. Each game is a high-stakes battle, with teams leaving it all on the field for a chance at Grand Final glory. The unpredictability and intensity of the Finals keep fans on the edge of their seats, making every moment crucial as teams fight for the championship.
Will There Be a Public Holiday?
While the NRL Grand Final is always held on a Sunday, there hasn’t been a public holiday tied to the event—yet. However, following the success of Victoria’s AFL holiday introduced in 2015, there is growing momentum in New South Wales for a public holiday the Monday after the Grand Final. This would give fans the chance to fully enjoy the day and recover from the excitement.
A Grand Final Parade?
As of now, the NRL does not have a Grand Final parade, but there has been growing speculation about the possibility of introducing one. Fans are hopeful that a parade may be on the horizon, adding another layer of celebration to an already monumental event.
NRL Tips for the Finals
As the NRL Finals approach, expert predictions and tips become highly sought after. These insights from former players and analysts offer fans a deeper understanding of team strategies and potential outcomes, enhancing the viewing experience. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just getting into the game, following these tips can make the Finals even more exciting.
NRL Grand Final Winners
Below you will find the results for all the NRL premiership winners and match information.
The NSWRL evolved into a national competition and became the National Rugby League (NRL) in 1998.
Note* Due to salary cap breaches in 2007 and 2009 Melbourne Storm were stripped of their premiership titles, Melbourne Storm was also stripped of their minor premiership titles in 2006, 2007, and 2008 due to salary cap breaches. During these periods there were no Premiership winners for those years.
| Season | Premiers | Score | Runners up | Minor Premiers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Brisbane Broncos | 32-18 | Canterbury Bulldogs | Brisbane Broncos |
| 1999 | Melbourne Storm | 20-18 | St George Illawarra Dragons | Cronulla Sharks |
| 2000 | Brisbane Broncos | 14-6 | Sydney Roosters | Brisbane Broncos |
| 2001 | Newcastle Knights | 30-24 | Parramatta Eels | Parramatta Eels |
| 2002 | Sydney Roosters | 30-8 | New Zealand Warriors | New Zealand Warriors |
| 2003 | Penrith Panthers | 18-6 | Sydney Roosters | Penrith Panthers |
| 2004 | Canterbury Bulldogs | 16-13 | Sydney Roosters | Sydney Roosters |
| 2005 | Wests Tigers | 30-16 | North Queensland Cowboys | Parramatta Eels |
| 2006 | Brisbane Broncos | 15-8 | Melbourne Storm | Withheld |
| 2007 | Withheld | 34-8 | Manly Sea Eagles | Withheld |
| 2008 | Manly Sea Eagles | 40-0 | Melbourne Storm | Withheld |
| 2009 | Withheld | 23-16 | Parramatta Eels | St George Illawarra Dragons |
| 2010 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 32-8 | Sydney Roosters | St George Illawarra Dragons |
| 2011 | Manly Sea Eagles | 24-10 | New Zealand Warriors | Melbourne Storm |
| 2012 | Melbourne Storm | 14-4 | Canterbury Bulldogs | Canterbury Bulldogs |
| 2013 | Sydney Roosters | 26-18 | Manly Sea Eagles | Sydney Roosters |
| 2014 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 30-6 | Canterbury Bulldogs | Sydney Roosters |
| 2015 | North Queensland Cowboys | 17-16 | Brisbane Broncos | Sydney Roosters |
| 2016 | Cronulla Sharks | 14-12 | Melbourne Storm | Melbourne Storm |
| 2017 | Melbourne Storm | 34-6 | North Queensland Cowboys | Melbourne Storm |
| 2018 | Sydney Roosters | 21-6 | Melbourne Storm | Sydney Roosters |
| 2019 | Sydney Roosters | 14-8 | Canberra Raiders | Melbourne Storm |
| 2020 | Melbourne Storm | 26-20 | Penrith Panthers | Penrith Panthers |
| 2021 | Penrith Panthers | 14-12 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | Melbourne Storm |
| 2022 | Penrith Panthers | 28-12 | Parramatta Eels | Penrith Panthers |
| 2023 | Penrith Panthers | 26-24 | Brisbane Broncos | Penrith Panthers |
| 2024 | TBC | TBC | TBC | Melbourne Storm |
