2024 NRL Preliminary Finals
The 2024 NRL Preliminary Finals have finally arrived, and with more pressure than ever, the Storm will be taking on the Roosters will be taking on the Melbourne Storm at home in AAMI Park, while the Sharks will taking on the Panthers at Accor Stadium.
Using advanced tracking, data analysis and statistics, we have ran the analysis thousands of times to get the following results to get you the most accurate tips and predictions for this weeks NRL games.
Storm vs Sharks
Friday, September 27, 2024
7:50 PM @ AAMI Park, Melbourne
For the first time since July the Roosters will be heading back down to AAMI Park to take on the Storm, last time they met at AAMI Park the Storm left them pecking for pellets all the way home after beating them 24-8.
Final Scores
Storm
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Melbourne Storm is set at $1.30, and $3.50 for the Sydney Roosters, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
- Storm: 72.95%
- Roosters: 27.09%
This equates to a 45.86% higher chance of the Storm winning.
We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season, this resulted in the following probability:
- Storm 52.9%
- Roosters 47.1%
Currently the odds for the Roosters are significantly undervalued by the bookmakers and Roosters should actually be closer to $2.12, this presents a value opportunity for a Sydney bet.
Winning Margin Probabilities
Historically when playing each other the Storm and the Roosters total score is less than the 45.5 total points so an UNDER bet is recommended.
Half-time/Full-time Probabilities
Anytime Goal Scorers
| Melbourne Storm | Sydney Roosters |
|---|---|
| TBC
-%
|
TBC
-%
|
Head-to-Head Stats:
- Average Points For Per Match: Storm: 29.2, Roosters: 30.3 – (Roosters by 1.1 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Storm: 18.4, Roosters: 19.6 – (Storm by 1.2 points)
- Current Form: Storm: WWLWW, Roosters: WLWLW – (Both inconsistent, Storm has slight momentum)
- Completion Rate: Storm: 78%, Roosters: 79% – (Roosters by 1%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Storm: 87.3%, Roosters: 87.6% – (Roosters by 0.3%)
- Wins This Season: Storm: 80% (20/25), Roosters: 65% (17/26) – (Storm by 15%)
- Points Scored This Season: Storm: 729, Roosters: 788 – (Roosters by 59 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Storm: 459, Roosters: 509 – (Storm by 50 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Storm won by 16 points (24-8) on 20th July 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Storm: 100%, Roosters: 88.9% – (Storm by 11.1%)
- HT/FT Double: Storm: 72%, Roosters: 61.5% – (Storm by 10.5%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Storm to win by 13+ @ $2.10 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
UNDER 45.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Same Game Multi:
Storm 13+
Total Points: UNDER 45.5
HT/FT Double: Storm/Storm
Highest Scoring Half: Second
Total: $9.36 with Bet365
Panthers vs Sharks
Saturday, September 28, 2024
7:50 PM @ Accor Stadium, Sydney
With neither team holding home ground advantage the Panthers and the Sharks will be bumping heads at Accor Stadium this Saturday night, the Panthers have held a significant power over the Sharks in recent years with the Sharks only coming close to beating them once way back in June 2021.
Final Scores
Panthers
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Penrith Panthers is set at $1.25, and $4.00 for the Cronulla Sharks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
- Panthers: 76.19%
- Sharks: 23.81%
This equates to a 52.38% higher chance of the Panthers winning.
We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season, this resulted in the following probability:
- Panthers: 53.30%
- Sharks: 46.70%
Currently the odds for the Sharks are significantly undervalued by the bookmakers and Cronulla should actually be closer to $2.14, this presents a value opportunity for a Cronulla Sharks bet.
Winning Margin Probabilities
Historically when playing against each other the Panthers and the Sharks total score is lower than the total points 42.5 so an UNDER bet is recommended.
Half-time/Full-time Probabilities
Anytime Try Scorers
| Penrith Panthers | Cronulla Sharks |
|---|---|
| TBC
-%
|
TBC
-%
|
Head-to-Head Stats:
- Average Points For Per Match: Panthers: 24.4, Sharks: 26.5 – (Sharks by 2.1 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Panthers: 16.2, Sharks: 18.7 – (Panthers by 2.5 points)
- Current Form: Panthers: LLWWW, Sharks: WLWLW – (Both have mixed form, Panthers on a 3-game streak)
- Completion Rate: Panthers: 80%, Sharks: 78% – (Panthers by 2%)
- Tackle Efficiency: Panthers: 87.9%, Sharks: 87.5% – (Panthers by 0.4%)
- Wins This Season: Panthers: 72% (18/25), Sharks: 65% (17/26) – (Panthers by 7%)
- Points Scored This Season: Panthers: 610, Sharks: 689 – (Sharks by 79 points)
- Points Conceded This Season: Panthers: 404, Sharks: 486 – (Panthers by 82 points)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Panthers won by 42 points (42-0) on 25th May 2024
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Panthers: 81.3%, Sharks: 88.9% – (Sharks by 7.6%)
- HT/FT Double: Panthers: 52%, Sharks: 30.8% – (Panthers by 21.2%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Panthers to win by 13+ @ $2.05 with
bet365
OVER/UNDER Bet:
UNDER 42.5 @ $1.90 with
bet365
Same Game Multi:
Panthers 13+
Total Points: UNDER 42.5
HT/FT Double: Panthers/Panthers
Highest Scoring Half: Second
Total: $8.81 with Bet365
This Weeks NRL Multi
Storm 13+
Total Points: UNDER 45.5
HT/FT Double: Storm/Storm
Panthers 13+
Total Points: UNDER 42.5
HT/FT Double: Panthers/Panthers
Total: $21.05 with Bet365
Check out all this weeks NRL Multi Tips on our Multi Bets Page.
NRL Draw
Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.
NRL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do NRL tips; our experts also specialise in AFL betting and horse racing tips.
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NRL Pre-Lims
The structure of the Preliminary Finals round is designed to reward the teams that performed exceptionally well in the first week of the Finals. The two teams that emerged victorious in the Week 1 Qualifying Finals are granted a significant advantage – the privilege of playing on their home ground. This home-ground advantage is often crucial, as teams are typically more comfortable and perform better in familiar surroundings in front of their home crowd.
The opponents of these Week 1 Qualifying winners in the Preliminary Finals are the two teams that triumphed in the Semi-Finals during the second week of the Finals. These teams, having proven their mettle in the Semi-Finals, face the challenge of overcoming their opponents’ home-ground advantage in the Preliminary Finals.
The outcomes of the two games in the Preliminary Finals round are paramount, as they directly determine the two teams that will vie for the championship in the NRL Grand Final. The winners of the Preliminary Finals earn the right to compete in the season’s ultimate showdown, the Grand Final, where they have the opportunity to etch their names in NRL history.
Thus, the Preliminary Finals round serves as the pivotal precursor to the Grand Final, setting the stage for the thrilling conclusion of the NRL season.
