NRL Betting Tips Finals Week 1

2024 NRL Finals Week 1

The 2024 NRL Finals kick off with an exciting Week 1 lineup featuring four pivotal matchups. The Penrith Panthers take on the Sydney Roosters, setting the stage at BlueBet Stadium. With both teams showing strong form and close statistical comparisons, this game promises to be an excellent start to the finals. Following the action-packed opener, the other top teams will also compete in key games throughout the weekend, making this week a must-watch for rugby league fans.

Panthers vs Roosters

Friday, September 13, 2024

7:50 PM @ BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

The Roosters are heading to BlueBet Stadium on Friday night to take on the three time reigning premiers the Penrith Panthers.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Panthers: 24.2, Roosters: 30.8 – (Roosters by 6.6 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Panthers: 16.4, Roosters: 19.3 – (Panthers by 2.9 points)
Current Form: Panthers: WLLWW, Roosters: WWWLW – (Roosters 3-game streak)
Completion Rate: Panthers: 80%, Roosters: 79% – (Panthers by 1%)
Tackle Efficiency: Panthers: 87.9%, Roosters: 87.4% – (Panthers by 0.5%)
Wins This Season: Panthers: 71% (17/24), Roosters: 67% (16/24) – (Panthers by 4%)
Points Scored This Season: Panthers: 580, Roosters: 738 – (Roosters by 158 points)
Points Conceded This Season: Panthers: 394, Roosters: 463 – (Panthers by 69 points)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Panthers won by 6 points (22-16) on 28th March 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Panthers: 80%, Roosters: 88.2% – (Roosters by 8.2%)
HT/FT Double: Panthers: 50%, Roosters: 62.5% – (Roosters by 12.5%)

Finals Week 1 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Panthers 36, Roosters 16

Win Percentages: Panthers 60.07%, Roosters 39.93%

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Penrith Panthers set at $1.44, and $2.80 for the Sydney Roosters, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Penrith: 66.04%
Sydney: 33.96%

This equates to a 32.08% higher chance of the Panthers winning.

We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season, this resulted in the following probability:

Panthers 54.1%
Roosters 45.9%

By adding the two together the final percentage difference resulted in a much closer combined probability of Penrith Panthers having a 26.14% higher chance of winning.

Winning Margin Probabilities:

Penrith Panthers to win by 1-12: 32.00%
Penrith Panthers to win by 13+: 33.84%
Sydney Roosters to win by 1-12: 23.15%
Sydney Roosters to win by 13+: 11.00%

Historically when playing at Bluebet Stadium the Panthers and the Roosters total score surpasses the 39.5 total points so an OVER bet is recommended.

Suggested Betting Tip: Panthers to win by 13+ @ $2.60 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 39.5 @ $1.82 with bet365

Same Game Multi:

Panthers 13+
Anytime Try Scorer: Brian To’o
HT/FT Double: Panthers/Panthers
Highest Scoring Half: Second

Total:$7.57 with Bet365

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Storm vs Sharks

Saturday, September 14, 2024

4:05 PM @ AAMI Park, Melbourne

Swimming their way down to Melbourne, the Cronulla Sharks will be making their way to AAMI Park to go up against the winners of the minor premiership and top contenders for the Grand Final the Melbourne Storm on Saturday afternoon.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Storm: 28.8, Sharks: 27.2 – (Storm by 1.6 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Storm: 18.7, Sharks: 18.0 – (Sharks by 0.7 points)
Current Form: Storm: WWWLW, Sharks: WWWLW – (Both teams evenly matched)
Completion Rate: Storm: 78%, Sharks: 78% – (Even)
Tackle Efficiency: Storm: 87.3%, Sharks: 87.4% – (Sharks by 0.1%)
Wins This Season: Storm: 79% (19/24), Sharks: 67% (16/24) – (Storm by 12%)
Points Scored This Season: Storm: 692, Sharks: 653 – (Storm by 39 points)
Points Conceded This Season: Storm: 449, Sharks: 431 – (Sharks by 18 points)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sharks won by 7 points (25-18) on 11th May 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Storm: 100%, Sharks: 87.5% – (Storm by 12.5%)
HT/FT Double: Storm: 70.8%, Sharks: 29.2% – (Storm by 41.6%)

Finals Week 1 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Storm 36, Sharks 18

Win Percentages: Storm 64.07%, Sharks 35.93%

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Melbourne Storm set at $1.30, and $3.50 for the Cronulla Sharks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Storm: 72.94%
Sharks: 27.06%

This equates to a 45.88% higher chance of the Storm winning.

Storm 55.2%
Sharks 44.8%

By adding the two together the final percentage difference resulted in a much closer combined probability of Melbourne Storm having a 28.14% higher chance of winning.

Winning Margin Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm to win by 1-12: 30.45%
Melbourne Storm to win by 13+: 38.41%
Cronulla Sharks to win by 1-12: 21.04%
Cronulla Sharks to win by 13+: 10.10%

Historically when playing at AAMI Park the Storm and the Sharks total score is significantly higher than the total points 44.5 so an OVER bet is recommended.

Suggested Betting Tip: Storm to win by 13+ @ $2.30 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 44.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Same Game Multi:

Storm 13+
Anytime Try Scorer: Xavier Coates
HT/FT Double: Storm/Storm
Highest Scoring Half: Second

TOTAL: $6.43 with bet365

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Cowboys vs Knights

Saturday, September 14, 2024

7:50 PM @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Grabbing their jousting sticks and shields, the Newcastle Knights will be taking on the North Queensland Cowboys this Saturday at the Cowboys home turf Queensland Country Bank Stadium.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Cowboys: 27.4, Knights: 19.6 – (Cowboys by 7.8 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Cowboys: 23.7, Knights: 21.3 – (Knights by 2.4 points)
Current Form: Cowboys: WLWWW, Knights: WLWWW – (Both teams in strong form)
Completion Rate: Cowboys: 78%, Knights: 80% – (Knights by 2%)
Tackle Efficiency: Cowboys: 86.9%, Knights: 88% – (Knights by 1.1%)
Wins This Season: Cowboys: 62% (15/24), Knights: 50% (12/24) – (Cowboys by 12%)
Points Scored This Season: Cowboys: 657, Knights: 470 – (Cowboys by 187 points)
Points Conceded This Season: Cowboys: 568, Knights: 510 – (Knights by 58 points)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Cowboys won by 1 point (21-20) on 16th March 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Cowboys: 85.7%, Knights: 83.3% – (Cowboys by 2.4%)
HT/FT Double: Cowboys: 50%, Knights: 41.7% – (Cowboys by 8.3%)

Finals Week 1 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Cowboys 27 Knights 18

Win Percentages: Cowboys 62.46%, Knights 37.54%

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for North Queensland Cowboys set at $1.42, and $2.90 for the Newcastle Knights, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Cowboys: 67.12%
Knights: 32.88%

This equates to a 34.24% higher chance of the Cowboys winning.

Cowboys 57.8
Knights 42.2%

By adding the two together the final percentage difference resulted in a much closer combined probability of North Queensland Cowboys having a 24.92% higher chance of winning.

Winning Margin Probabilities:

North Queensland Cowboys to win by 1-12: 30.78%
North Queensland Cowboys to win by 13+: 34.42%
Newcastle Knights to win by 1-12: 23.09%
Newcastle Knights to win by 13+: 11.69%

Historically when playing at Queensland Country Bank Stadium the Cowboys and the Knights total score is has been less than the total points 43.5 in their last two games so an UNDER bet is recommended.

Suggested Betting Tip: Cowboys to win by 1-12 @ $2.55 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 43.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Same Game Multi:

Cowboys 1-12
Anytime Try Scorer: Kyle Feldt
Highest Scoring Half: Second

TOTAL: $8.47 with bet365

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Bulldogs vs Sea Eagles

Sunday, September 16, 2024

4:05 PM @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

Just two weeks after these two teams played each other, once again they will be squaring off at Accor Stadium on Sunday afternoon, however this week the stakes are so much higher.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Bulldogs: 22.0, Sea Eagles: 26.4 – (Sea Eagles by 4.4 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Bulldogs: 18.0, Sea Eagles: 21.7 – (Bulldogs by 3.7 points)
Current Form: Bulldogs: WWWLL, Sea Eagles: WWLWL – (Both teams slightly inconsistent)
Completion Rate: Bulldogs: 77%, Sea Eagles: 78% – (Sea Eagles by 1%)
Tackle Efficiency: Bulldogs: 86.2%, Sea Eagles: 86.1% – (Bulldogs by 0.1%)
Wins This Season: Bulldogs: 58% (14/24), Sea Eagles: 54% (13/24) – (Bulldogs by 4%)
Points Scored This Season: Bulldogs: 529, Sea Eagles: 634 – (Sea Eagles by 105 points)
Points Conceded This Season: Bulldogs: 433, Sea Eagles: 521 – (Bulldogs by 88 points)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sea Eagles won by 12 points (34-22) on 30th August 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Bulldogs: 72.7%, Sea Eagles: 69.2% – (Bulldogs by 3.5%)
HT/FT Double: Bulldogs: 33.3%, Sea Eagles: 37.5% – (Sea Eagles by 4.2%)

Finals Week 1 Injuries

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Bulldogs 20, Sea Eagles 18

Win Percentages: Bulldogs 53.54%, Sea Eagles 46.46%

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Canterbury Bulldogs set at $1.83, and $1.98 for the Manly Sea Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bulldogs: 51.97%
Sea Eagles: 48.03%

This equates to a 3.94% higher chance of the Bulldogs winning.

Bulldogs 55.1%
Sea Eagles 44.9%

By adding the two together the final percentage difference resulted in a greater probability of Canterbury Bulldogs having an 8.88% higher chance of winning.

Winning Margin Probabilities:

Canterbury Bulldogs to win by 1-12: 29.47%
Canterbury Bulldogs to win by 13+: 23.18%
Manly Sea Eagles to win by 1-12: 28.04%
Manly Sea Eagles to win by 13+: 19.31%

Historically when playing at Accor Stadium the Bulldogs and the Sea Eagles total score is has been less than the total points 43.5 in their last two games so an UNDER bet is recommended.

Suggested Betting Tip: Bulldogs to win by 1-12 @ $3.05 with bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 43.5 @ $1.90 with bet365

Same Game Multi: