AFL Betting Tips Round 17

AFL Expert Tips Round 17

 

This week’s AFL Round 17 tips and predictions begins on Friday with the Magpies taking on the Bombers at the MCG, and finishing up with the Lions and the Crows at the Gabba with no teams sitting out this round with a bye.

Magpies vs Bombers

Friday, July 5, 2024

This Friday night at the MCG, Collingwood takes on Essendon. The forecast predicts a chilly, partly cloudy evening, around 8-10°C at game time.

7:40 pm @ MCG, Melbourne

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood Magpies: 88.5, Essendon Bombers: 84.2
• Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood Magpies: 83.7, Essendon Bombers: 85.1
• Marks Inside 50: Collingwood Magpies: 10.5, Essendon Bombers: 12.5
• Disposals: Collingwood Magpies: 345.7, Essendon Bombers: 375.6
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Collingwood Magpies: 75.0%, Essendon Bombers: 77.8%
• Average Winning Margin: Collingwood Magpies: 22.8, Essendon Bombers: 18.7
• Average Losing Margin: Collingwood Magpies: 21.8, Essendon Bombers: 36.2
• Current Streak: Collingwood Magpies: L1, Essendon Bombers: L1
• Current Form: Collingwood Magpies: DLWWL, Essendon Bombers: WLLWL
• Goal Accuracy For: Collingwood Magpies: 58.3%, Essendon Bombers: 59.2%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Collingwood Magpies: 61.3%, Essendon Bombers: 59.2%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Collingwood Magpies 90, Essendon Bombers 78
• Win Percentages: Collingwood Magpies: 64.42%, Essendon Bombers: 36.64%

Collingwood’s attack is looking sharp with an average of 88.5 points per match, just edging out Essendon’s 84.2. Disposals? The Bombers lead with 375.6 per game to the Magpies’ 345.7. And those contested marks—Collingwood’s got 9.2 per game, while Essendon trails ever so slightly at 9.1.

Watch out for Stringer, Langford and Wright from the Bombers are all tipped for first goal, so it looks like the Bombers are likely to take the early lead, Merrett and Martin are also hot for 20+ disposals however there is not much margin in the bets, Stringer leads the charge in every goal kicking market so tipping him to kick 2+ goals is a smart bet.

The Magpies’ efficiency inside 50 at 51.6% outclasses the Bombers’ 44.5%, their previous game earlier this year was as close as it can get in a game of football ending in a tense tie that has shaped the rest of the Bombers season, however with a slightly lower winning margin for the Bombers, we could be looking at another super tight game.

Final Score Prediction: Magpies 90-78

Suggested Betting Tip: Magpies to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 168.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Kangaroos vs Suns

Saturday, July 6, 2024

1:45 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium, the Kangaroos take on the Suns. The forecast predicts a partly day, around 12°C at game time with light wind, the roof should be closed but make sure to rug up just incase.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 69.6, Gold Coast Suns: 86.7
• Average Points Against Per Match: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 108.6, Gold Coast Suns: 81.7
• Marks Inside 50: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 9.6, Gold Coast Suns: 10.1
• Disposals: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 350.1, Gold Coast Suns: 355.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 33.3%, Gold Coast Suns: 100.0%
• Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 9.0, Gold Coast Suns: 36.1
• Average Losing Margin: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 42.4, Gold Coast Suns: 30.7
• Current Streak: North Melbourne Kangaroos: L3, Gold Coast Suns: W1
• Current Form: North Melbourne Kangaroos: LWLLL, Gold Coast Suns: LWLLW
• Goal Accuracy For: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 66.2%, Gold Coast Suns: 61.4%
• Goal Accuracy Against: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 60.7%, Gold Coast Suns: 59.4%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: North Melbourne Kangaroos 74, Gold Coast Suns 95
• Win Percentages: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 27.84%, Gold Coast Suns: 71.21%

North Melbourne’s been struggling again this season and let’s be honest here the Suns have been a pretty solid team this season. The Suns have a better attack, averaging 86.7 points per match compared to the Kangaroos’ 69.6. The Suns are only slightly better in disposals with 355.1 per game to the Roos’ 350.1. And as for contested marks Gold Coast leads with 8.7 per game, ahead of North’s 7.7.

Hot money is on Ben King and Nick Larkey for first goal, while Sam Flanders of the Suns has crazy low odds for 25+ disposals so its a good idea to get him into your supercoach team this week aswell. The Suns’ efficiency inside 50 at 42.9% slightly surpasses the Kangaroos’ 42.1%.

Lets not beat around the bush here, North have had a terrible last few years, and this year hasn’t really been any better, just on points averaged and points against alone we can tell that the Suns should win this game quite comfortably, the big question isn’t who will win but by how much they will win by.

Final Score Prediction: Suns 95-74

Suggested Betting Tip: Suns to win by 1-39 @ $2.10 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 170.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Power vs Bulldogs

Saturday, July 6, 2024

1:45 pm @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

This Saturday afternoon at Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide Power take on the Western Bulldogs. The forecast for Adelaide this week is a little more forgiving than Melbourne predicting a mostly sunny day with a slight chance of a shower, around 17°C at game time with 20-30 km winds.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Port Adelaide Power: 84.3, Western Bulldogs: 94.5
• Average Points Against Per Match: Port Adelaide Power: 83.3, Western Bulldogs: 78.6
• Marks Inside 50: Port Adelaide Power: 13.8, Western Bulldogs: 12.7
• Disposals: Port Adelaide Power: 343.9, Western Bulldogs: 377.5
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Port Adelaide Power: 100.0%, Western Bulldogs: 87.5%
• Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide Power: 25.6, Western Bulldogs: 50.5
• Average Losing Margin: Port Adelaide Power: 36.0, Western Bulldogs: 23.7
• Current Streak: Port Adelaide Power: W1, Western Bulldogs: W2
• Current Form: Port Adelaide Power: WLLLW, Western Bulldogs: LWLWW
• Goal Accuracy For: Port Adelaide Power: 50.4%, Western Bulldogs: 60.0%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Port Adelaide Power: 59.3%, Western Bulldogs: 58.8%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Port Adelaide Power 86, Western Bulldogs 92
• Win Percentages: Port Adelaide Power: 43.83%, Western Bulldogs: 55.51%

Port Adelaide’s coming off a win, while the Bulldogs are riding a two-game winning streak. The Bulldogs have been sharper in attack, averaging 94.5 points per match to Port’s 84.3. They also dominate disposals with 377.5 per game compared to Port’s 343.9. Contested marks? Bulldogs lead again with 11.1 per game to Power’s 9.3.

There is a mixed bag of odds set for first goal seven players from both teams set for first goal at under $12, my suggestion is don’t bet on first goal kicker. The Dogs’ efficiency inside 50 at 49.9% is solid, but Port’s 52.7% shows they make the most of their opportunities. Adam Treloar of the Western Bulldogs is a disposal machine and and with $1.14 odds this week should be in your Supercoach team.

The Bulldogs have been the stronger side leading up to this game and are predicted to take this one home.

Final Score Prediction: Bulldogs 92-86

Suggested Betting Tip: Bulldogs to win by 1-39 @ $2.30 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 166.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Cats vs Hawks

Saturday, July 6, 2024

4:35 pm @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

This Saturday afternoon at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats take on the Hawks. The forecast predicts a partly cloudy day, around 12-13°C at game time with a light breeze and a near zero chance of rain.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Geelong Cats: 92.6, Hawthorn Hawks: 79.5
• Average Points Against Per Match: Geelong Cats: 87.2, Hawthorn Hawks: 81.2
• Marks Inside 50: Geelong Cats: 12.7, Hawthorn Hawks: 12.9
• Disposals: Geelong Cats: 349.8, Hawthorn Hawks: 351.4
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Geelong Cats: 87.5%, Hawthorn Hawks: 87.5%
• Average Winning Margin: Geelong Cats: 28.4, Hawthorn Hawks: 28.0
• Average Losing Margin: Geelong Cats: 29.2, Hawthorn Hawks: 35.7
• Current Streak: Geelong Cats: W1, Hawthorn Hawks: W5
• Current Form: Geelong Cats: LWLLW, Hawthorn Hawks: WWWWW
• Goal Accuracy For: Geelong Cats: 64.4%, Hawthorn Hawks: 55.7%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Geelong Cats: 60.4%, Hawthorn Hawks: 62.6%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Geelong Cats 85, Hawthorn Hawks 81
• Win Percentages: Geelong Cats: 53.46%, Hawthorn Hawks: 45.44%

Geelong’s had a confusing season so far, while Hawthorn’s been on a hot streak leading up to this game winning their last 5 games in a row. The Cats average 92.6 points per game, outscoring the Hawks’ 79.5. In disposals, it’s neck and neck with the Hawks slightly ahead at 351.4 to the Cats’ 349.8. The Hawks also have a slight edge in marks inside 50 with 12.9 compared to Geelong’s 12.7.

Hot tips are on Jeremy Cameron, Mabior Chol and Tyson Stengle for the first goal, while Will Day is a solid bet for 20+ disposals. The Hawks’ efficiency inside 50 at 48.5% marginally beats the Cats’ 47.4%.

Geelong’s been about as patchy as an unwatered lawn recently but has the home ground advantage, while Hawthorn’s recent form makes them a tough contender. Based on points averaged and defensive stats, it’s going to be tight, but the Cats should get this one, especially having their home-ground advantage.

Final Score Prediction: Cats 85-81

Suggested Betting Tip: Cats to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 170.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Giants vs Blues

Saturday, July 6, 2024

7:30 pm @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney

This Saturday night at ENGIE Stadium, the Giants face off against the Blues. The forecast predicts a cool evening, around 14-15°C at game time with clear skies and light winds in the afternoon.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: GWS Giants: 87.2, Carlton Blues: 99.8
• Average Points Against Per Match: GWS Giants: 80.5, Carlton Blues: 84.2
• Marks Inside 50: GWS Giants: 13.4, Carlton Blues: 11.7
• Disposals: GWS Giants: 372.9, Carlton Blues: 361.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: GWS Giants: 72.7%, Carlton Blues: 87.5%
• Average Winning Margin: GWS Giants: 30.6, Carlton Blues: 27.9
• Average Losing Margin: GWS Giants: 20.6, Carlton Blues: 18.3
• Current Streak: GWS Giants: L2, Carlton Blues: W5
• Current Form: GWS Giants: WLWLL, Carlton Blues: WWWWW
• Goal Accuracy For: GWS Giants: 61.7%, Carlton Blues: 64.2%
• Goal Accuracy Against: GWS Giants: 53.0%, Carlton Blues: 61.5%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: GWS Giants 88, Carlton Blues 90
• Win Percentages: GWS Giants: 47.26%, Carlton Blues: 51.52%

GWS has had an extremely questionable season, while Carlton’s been on a rampage, climbing the ladder with five straight wins. The Blues have a stronger attack, averaging 99.8 points per match to the Giants’ 87.2. In disposals, the Giants have the edge with 372.9 per game compared to the Blues’ 361.1. Contested marks are almost even, with GWS at 11 per game and Carlton at 10.9.

All eyes will be on Charlie Curnow, Jesse Hogan, and Harry McKay for the first goal, with Charlie Curnow also having excellent odds for 3+ goals . Sam Walsh and Tom Greene are hot tips for 25+ disposals. Carlton’s efficiency inside 50 at 51.2% tops the Giants’ 48.3%.

Let’s be honest, the Giants have had a rough patch, while the Blues are in red-hot form and a solid team this week. With their higher average points and recent winning streak, Carlton is expected to take this one home.

Final Score Prediction: Blues 90-88

Suggested Betting Tip: Blues to win by 1-39 @ $2.30 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 163.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Dockers vs Tigers

Saturday, July 6, 2024

8:10 pm @ Optus Stadium, Perth

This Saturday night at Optus Stadium, the Dockers take on the Tigers. The forecast predicts a medium chance of showers in the evening, around 13-14°C at game time with questionable winds.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Fremantle Dockers: 83.3, Richmond Tigers: 64.2
• Average Points Against Per Match: Fremantle Dockers: 74.8, Richmond Tigers: 101.9
• Marks Inside 50: Fremantle Dockers: 12.3, Richmond Tigers: 9.6
• Disposals: Fremantle Dockers: 370, Richmond Tigers: 328.3
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Fremantle Dockers: 72.7%, Richmond Tigers: 0.0%
• Average Winning Margin: Fremantle Dockers: 32.4, Richmond Tigers: 6.5
• Average Losing Margin: Fremantle Dockers: 33.0, Richmond Tigers: 44.5
• Current Streak: Fremantle Dockers: W2, Richmond Tigers: L2
• Current Form: Fremantle Dockers: DWLWW, Richmond Tigers: LLWLL
• Goal Accuracy For: Fremantle Dockers: 55.6%, Richmond Tigers: 54.9%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Fremantle Dockers: 55.1%, Richmond Tigers: 61.2%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Fremantle Dockers 105, Richmond Tigers 61
• Win Percentages: Fremantle Dockers: 89.38%, Richmond Tigers: 10.13%

Third on the ladder this week, Fremantle’s is looking strong, while Richmond’s season has been less than stellar with only two wins this season. The Dockers have a far better attack, averaging 83.3 points per game compared to the Tigers’ 64.2. In disposals, Fremantle leads once again with 370 per match to Richmond’s 328.3. The Dockers also dominate in marks inside 50, averaging 12.3 against the Tigers’ 9.6.

For first goal, odds under $10 all point to Fremantle with Treacy, Sturt, and Amiss followed by Bolton of the Tiges. Andrew Brayshaw is a solid bet for over 25 disposals, while Treacy is once again odds favourite for three goals. Fremantle’s efficiency inside 50 at 50.3% easily tops Richmond’s 41.4%.

Let’s not kid ourselves, the Tigers have been struggling, and their defence isn’t worth a dime. Fremantle, on the other hand, is in good form and should take this one extremely comfortably. If you want sone easy money this week throwing it all on the Dockers for a head to head without being greedy would be a good way to go.

Final Score Prediction: Dockers 105-61

Suggested Betting Tip: Dockers to win by 40+ @ $1.65 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 165.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Demons vs Eagles

Sunday, July 7, 2024

1:10 pm @ MCG, Melbourne

This Sunday afternoon at the MCG, the Demons face off against the Eagles. The forecast predicts a partly cloudy day, around 13°C at game time with light winds and the slight chance of a shower. Bring a jacket to stay warm, bring an umbrella just incase (it is Melbourne after all).

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Melbourne Demons: 77.1, West Coast Eagles: 67.9
• Average Points Against Per Match: Melbourne Demons: 77.1, West Coast Eagles: 96.5
• Marks Inside 50: Melbourne Demons: 10.6, West Coast Eagles: 10.1
• Disposals: Melbourne Demons: 346.5, West Coast Eagles: 312.6
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Melbourne Demons: 85.7%, West Coast Eagles: 60.0%
• Average Winning Margin: Melbourne Demons: 26.8, West Coast Eagles: 37.0
• Average Losing Margin: Melbourne Demons: 30.7, West Coast Eagles: 44.9
• Current Streak: Melbourne Demons: L1, West Coast Eagles: L5
• Current Form: Melbourne Demons: WLLWL, West Coast Eagles: LLLLL
• Goal Accuracy For: Melbourne Demons: 54.8%, West Coast Eagles: 53.3%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Melbourne Demons: 58.0%, West Coast Eagles: 60.2%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Melbourne Demons 98, West Coast Eagles 60
• Win Percentages: Melbourne Demons: 86.78%, West Coast Eagles: 12.48%

Melbourne sitting on 12th position have had a bit of a bumpy season, while the Eagles have to no ones surprise been floating around the bottom of the ladder currently sitting on five straight losses. Statistically, the Demons boast a stronger attack, averaging 77.1 points per match to the Eagles’ 67.9. In disposals, Melbourne leads with 346.5 per game compared to West Coast’s 312.6. Contested marks are close, with the Demons at 10.9 per game and the Eagles at 10.5.

Watch for Fritsch, Pickett, and Waterman all looking to make an early impact with first goal. Oliver and Viney are your best bets for 25+ disposals, while Fritsch and Pickett are also your best bets for 2+ and 3+ goals. Melbourne’s efficiency inside 50 at 47.2% matches West Coast’s, but the Demons’ defence is tighter.

Let’s be real, the Eagles are struggling, and the Demons are looking to bounce back and need the win this week to position themselves for the 8. Melbourne should dominate this match quite comfortably.

Final Score Prediction: Demons 98-60

Suggested Betting Tip: Demons to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 166.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Saints vs Swans

Sunday, July 7, 2024

3:20 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium, the Saints take on the Swans. The forecast predicts a partly cloudy day, around 13°C at game time with light wind. The roof should be closed, but make sure to rug up for the trek across the foot bridge to get there.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda Saints: 72.2, Sydney Swans: 103.5
• Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda Saints: 78.1, Sydney Swans: 71.8
• Marks Inside 50: St Kilda Saints: 11.2, Sydney Swans: 12.5
• Disposals: St Kilda Saints: 358.7, Sydney Swans: 360.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: St Kilda Saints: 66.7%, Sydney Swans: 90.0%
• Average Winning Margin: St Kilda Saints: 15.4, Sydney Swans: 37.1
• Average Losing Margin: St Kilda Saints: 16.5, Sydney Swans: 3.0
• Current Streak: St Kilda Saints: L2, Sydney Swans: L1
• Current Form: St Kilda Saints: LWWLL, Sydney Swans: WWWWL
• Goal Accuracy For: St Kilda Saints: 56.0%, Sydney Swans: 59.8%
• Goal Accuracy Against: St Kilda Saints: 55.1%, Sydney Swans: 55.5%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: St Kilda Saints 73, Sydney Swans 91
• Win Percentages: St Kilda Saints: 29.50%, Sydney Swans: 69.50%

St Kilda aren’t having the best of seasons so far currently sitting fourth from the bottom, while the Swans are sitting quite comfortably in top spot with 13 wins to date. The Swans’ accuracy is better, averaging 103.5 points per match compared to the Saints’ 72.2. Disposals surprisingly are almost neck and neck, with the Swans at 360.1 per game to the Saints’ 358.7. Contested marks, however, favour the Saints slightly, with 9.5 per game against the Swans’ 7.7, not that this will be an issue the Swans simply wont allow this game to be a contest.

Hot money is on Max King and Jack Higgins of the Saints for the first goal as the Saints look to get the pressure in early, while Errol Gulden of the Swans is a sure bet for 25+ disposals. The Swans’ efficiency inside 50 at 50.4% tops the Saints’ 44.5%.

Let’s not beat around the bush here, the Saints don’t have what it takes to beat the Swans this week. With all signals leading to a Swans win, they should take this one easily.

Final Score Prediction: Swans 91-73

Suggested Betting Tip: Swans to win by 1-39 @ $2.05 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 163.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Lions vs Crows

Sunday, July 7, 2024

4:10 pm @ Gabba, Brisbane

This Sunday afternoon at the Gabba, the Lions take on the Crows. The forecast predicts a partly cloudy day, around 20°C at game time with a light breeze.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane Lions: 93.5, Adelaide Crows: 82.1
• Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane Lions: 77.3, Adelaide Crows: 79.1
• Marks Inside 50: Brisbane Lions: 13.7, Adelaide Crows: 11.2
• Disposals: Brisbane Lions: 360.8, Adelaide Crows: 368.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Brisbane Lions: 77.8%, Adelaide Crows: 57.1%
• Average Winning Margin: Brisbane Lions: 49.0, Adelaide Crows: 40.8
• Average Losing Margin: Brisbane Lions: 24.8, Adelaide Crows: 17.7
• Current Streak: Brisbane Lions: W4, Adelaide Crows: W1
• Current Form: Brisbane Lions: LWWWW, Adelaide Crows: WLLLW
• Goal Accuracy For: Brisbane Lions: 56.9%, Adelaide Crows: 62.9%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Brisbane Lions: 58.3%, Adelaide Crows: 54.4%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Brisbane Lions 106, Adelaide Crows 72
• Win Percentages: Brisbane Lions: 82.87%, Adelaide Crows: 16.44%

Brisbane’s been roaring these past few weeks, while the Crows don’t know their ass from their elbow. The Lions are averaging 93.5 points per match compared to Adelaide’s 82.1. When it comes to disposals, the Crows have a slight edge, averaging 368.1 per game to Brisbane’s 360.8. in regards to contested marks, however, the Lions are once again on top with 11.4 per game against the Crows’ 9.7.

Smart tips for first goal are Joe Daniher and Eric Hopwood, while Lachie Neale of the Lions is a solid tips for 25+ disposals. The Lions’ efficiency inside 50 at 47.3% just tips out the Crows’ 45.8%.

Let’s face it, the Lions have been in top form with a four-game winning streak, and their home ground advantage is hard to beat. Adelaide will put up a fight, but Brisbane’s consistency should see them through.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 106-72

Suggested Betting Tip: Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 168.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

This Week’s AFL Multi Bet

• Suns
• Dockers
• Demons
• Swans
• Lions

Take Bet: $2.60 with  Ladbrokes

Check out all of this week’s AFL multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

 

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