AFL Betting Tips Round 16

AFL Expert Tips Round 16

 

This week’s AFL Round 16 tips and predictions begins on Friday with the Lions taking on the Demons at The Gabba, and finishing up with the Eagles and the Hawks at Optus Stadium with no teams sitting out this round with a bye.

Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons

Friday, June 28, 2024

7:40 PM @ Gabba, Brisbane

This Friday night at the Gabba, the Lions take on the Demons. The forecast predicts a mild evening, around 20°C, with a slight chance of showers, so pack a brolly just in case.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane Lions: 94.0, Melbourne Demons: 76.8
• Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane Lions: 77.0, Melbourne Demons: 76.5
• Marks Inside 50: Brisbane Lions: 13.7, Melbourne Demons: 10.6
• Disposals: Brisbane Lions: 360.3, Melbourne Demons: 347.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Brisbane Lions: 77.8%, Melbourne Demons: 100.0%
• Average Winning Margin: Brisbane Lions: 55.3, Melbourne Demons: 26.8
• Average Losing Margin: Brisbane Lions: 24.8, Melbourne Demons: 35.0
• Current Streak: Brisbane Lions: W3, Melbourne Demons: W1
• Current Form: Brisbane Lions: WLWWW, Melbourne Demons: LWLLW
• Goal Accuracy For: Brisbane Lions: 57.9%, Melbourne Demons: 56.0%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Brisbane Lions: 59.9%, Melbourne Demons: 59.3%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Brisbane Lions 99, Melbourne Demons 66
• Win Percentages: Brisbane Lions: 82.96%, Melbourne Demons: 16.28%

The Lions are roaring into this one with a three-game winning streak, while the Demons are looking a bit shaky with recent form winning only two of their last five games. Brisbane’s disposal game is top-notch, averaging 360.3 per match compared to Melbourne’s 347.1. And let’s talk about contested marks—Brisbane’s got 11.3 per game, showing they’re not afraid to get their hands dirty in the thick of it.

Joe Daniher and Bayley Fritsch are key forwards to watch, both primed for the first goal. The Lions’ efficiency inside 50 at 46.7% trumps the Demons’ 46.5%, suggesting a slight edge in capitalising on scoring opportunities.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 99-66

Suggested Betting Tip: Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 165.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs

Saturday, June 29, 2024

1:45 PM @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Saturday at Marvel Stadium, the Kangaroos and Bulldogs will be hit with blue skies at Marvel Stadium. With temperatures hovering around a pleasant 19°C, it’s perfect footy weather for fans and players alike.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 70.3, Western Bulldogs: 95.7
• Average Points Against Per Match: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 110.9, Western Bulldogs: 79.9
• Marks Inside 50: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 9.6, Western Bulldogs: 12.9
• Disposals: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 349.2, Western Bulldogs: 377.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 33.3%, Western Bulldogs: 85.7%
• Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 9.0, Western Bulldogs: 55.3
• Average Losing Margin: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 44.4, Western Bulldogs: 23.7
• Current Streak: North Melbourne Kangaroos: L2, Western Bulldogs: W1
• Current Form: North Melbourne Kangaroos: LLWLL, Western Bulldogs: WLWLW
• Goal Accuracy For: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 66.1%, Western Bulldogs: 60.3%
• Goal Accuracy Against: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 61.0%, Western Bulldogs: 58.4%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: North Melbourne Kangaroos 68, Western Bulldogs 116
• Win Percentages: North Melbourne Kangaroos: 9.36%, Western Bulldogs: 90.16%

North Melbourne, struggling to find form only winning one of their last 5 games, are up against a Bulldogs squad struggling to find form with a win-loss-win-loss-win scenario. The Bulldogs’ disposal efficiency, averaging 377.1, outshines the Kangaroos’ 349.2, and their ability to mark inside 50 (12.9) puts North’s 9.6 to shame. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan for the Bulldogs and Nick Larkey for the Kangas are the key forwards to watch, both likely to snag the first goal.

Despite North’s solid goal accuracy at 66.1%, the Bulldogs’ efficiency inside 50 at 50.1% indicates they’re more likely to convert opportunities into points.

Final Score Prediction: Bulldogs 116-68

Suggested Betting Tip: Bulldogs to win by 40+ @ $2.02 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 180.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers

Saturday, June 29, 2024

1:45 PM @ SCG, Sydney

This Saturday arvo at the SCG, the Swans are set to take on the Dockers. With the mercury expected to hover around 18°C and no rain in sight, it’s prime footy conditions for a winter’s day.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Sydney Swans: 103.9, Fremantle Dockers: 82.1
• Average Points Against Per Match: Sydney Swans: 69.9, Fremantle Dockers: 73.1
• Marks Inside 50: Sydney Swans: 12.5, Fremantle Dockers: 12.2
• Disposals: Sydney Swans: 362.6, Fremantle Dockers: 370.9
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Sydney Swans: 90.0%, Fremantle Dockers: 70.0%
• Average Winning Margin: Sydney Swans: 37.1, Fremantle Dockers: 36.4
• Average Losing Margin: Sydney Swans: 5.0, Fremantle Dockers: 33.0
• Current Streak: Sydney Swans: W10, Fremantle Dockers: W1
• Current Form: Sydney Swans: WWWWW, Fremantle Dockers: WDWLW
• Goal Accuracy For: Sydney Swans: 60.1%, Fremantle Dockers: 54.6%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Sydney Swans: 54.5%, Fremantle Dockers: 55.1%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Sydney Swans 98, Fremantle Dockers 70
• Win Percentages: Sydney Swans: 57.0%, Fremantle Dockers: 43.0%

The Swans, riding high on a ten-game winning streak, are clear favourites. Their disposal average sits at 362.6 per game, slightly behind the Dockers’ 370.9, but it’s the efficiency that counts. Inside 50s show the Swans at 56.2 per game, outshining the Dockers’ 50.3, and let’s not overlook the Swans’ 50.3% efficiency once inside 50.

Joel Amartey and Josh Treacy are the forwards to watch for that all-important first snag. Sydney’s goal accuracy at 60.1% is impressive, and they’ve been rock solid in defence, allowing just 69.9 points per game.

Final Score Prediction: Swans 98-70

Suggested Betting Tip: Swans to win by 1-39 @ $2.10 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 172.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Gold Coast Suns Collingwood Magpies

Saturday, June 29, 2024

4:35 PM @ People First Stadium, Gold Coast

This Saturday at People First Stadium, the Suns and Magpies are set for a cracking contest under the Gold Coast sun. With a forecast of clear skies and temperatures around 20°C, it’s perfect footy weather for a little bit of grass burn.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Gold Coast Suns: 85.6, Collingwood Magpies: 88.4
• Average Points Against Per Match: Gold Coast Suns: 81.1, Collingwood Magpies: 82.4
• Marks Inside 50: Gold Coast Suns: 10, Collingwood Magpies: 10.5
• Disposals: Gold Coast Suns: 351.9, Collingwood Magpies: 347
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Gold Coast Suns: 100%, Collingwood Magpies: 75%
• Average Winning Margin: Gold Coast Suns: 39.7, Collingwood Magpies: 22.8
• Average Losing Margin: Gold Coast Suns: 30.7, Collingwood Magpies: 24.5
• Current Streak: Gold Coast Suns: L2, Collingwood Magpies: W2
• Current Form: Gold Coast Suns: WLWLL, Collingwood Magpies: WDLWW
• Goal Accuracy For: Gold Coast Suns: 62.3%, Collingwood Magpies: 58.3%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Gold Coast Suns: 59.4%, Collingwood Magpies: 62.2%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Gold Coast Suns 84, Collingwood Magpies 82
• Win Percentages: Gold Coast Suns: 52.19%, Collingwood Magpies: 46.64%

Collingwood, riding a two-game winning streak, comes in with a slight edge. The Suns have had a mixed bag recently, going WLWLL, but their disposal efficiency of 73.2% might keep them in the game. The Magpies, however, lead in contested possessions at 135.7 per game compared to the Suns’ 133.7, showing they’re not shy about getting their hands dirty.

Jack Lukosius, Sam Day, and Ben Long, all from the Suns are the key forwards to watch early on, all primed for that crucial first goal. Collingwood’s efficiency inside 50 is a standout at 51.3%, suggesting they’ll make the most of their opportunities. Despite the close margins and the Magpies’ form and stats hinting they’ll edge this one out, they are playing at the Suns home ground.

Final Score Prediction: Suns 84-82

Suggested Betting Tip: Suns to win by 1-39 @ $2.50 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: UNDER 167.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants

Saturday, June 29, 2024

7:30 PM @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

This Saturday night at Adelaide Oval, the Crows take on the Giants. With the weather expected to be a cool 14°C and clear skies, it’s perfect conditions for knuckle aching footy under the lights at Adelaide Oval.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide Crows: 81.3, GWS Giants: 87.9
• Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide Crows: 79.2, GWS Giants: 79.5
• Marks Inside 50: Adelaide Crows: 11.1, GWS Giants: 13.6
• Disposals: Adelaide Crows: 369.4, GWS Giants: 371.9
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Adelaide Crows: 50.0%, GWS Giants: 72.7%
• Average Winning Margin: Adelaide Crows: 47.0, GWS Giants: 30.6
• Average Losing Margin: Adelaide Crows: 17.7, GWS Giants: 21.3
• Current Streak: Adelaide Crows: L3, GWS Giants: L1
• Current Form: Adelaide Crows: LWLLL, GWS Giants: LWLWL
• Goal Accuracy For: Adelaide Crows: 64.2%, GWS Giants: 61.2%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Adelaide Crows: 53.4%, GWS Giants: 53.2%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Adelaide Crows 85, GWS Giants 83
• Win Percentages: Adelaide Crows: 51.55%, GWS Giants: 47.43%

The Crows are in a bit of a slump with three straight losses, while the Giants have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last five games. Statistically, the Giants edge out the Crows with an average of 87.9 points per match compared to Adelaide’s 81.3. The disposal count is close, with the Giants at 371.9 and the Crows at 369.4, but the Giants’ efficiency inside 50 at 48.6% outshines the Crows’ 45.1%.

Key forwards Jesse Hogan and Izak Rankine are the ones to watch for the first goal. Tipping the scales slightly, the Crows at home are predicted to scrape through.

Final Score Prediction: Crows 85-83

Suggested Betting Tip: Crows to win by 1-39 @ $2.45 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 160.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers

Saturday, June 29, 2024

7:30 PM @ MCG, Melbourne

This Saturday night at the MCG, the Cats take on the Bombers. With the weather forecast predicting a cool 12°C and clear skies, it’s going to be an extremely chilly night out.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Geelong Cats: 91.7, Essendon Bombers: 85.9
• Average Points Against Per Match: Geelong Cats: 89.1, Essendon Bombers: 83.6
• Marks Inside 50: Geelong Cats: 12.6, Essendon Bombers: 12.7
• Disposals: Geelong Cats: 348.3, Essendon Bombers: 377.9
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Geelong Cats: 87.5%, Essendon Bombers: 87.5%
• Average Winning Margin: Geelong Cats: 26.4, Essendon Bombers: 18.7
• Average Losing Margin: Geelong Cats: 29.2, Essendon Bombers: 34.0
• Current Streak: Geelong Cats: L2, Essendon Bombers: W1
• Current Form: Geelong Cats: LLWLL, Essendon Bombers: WWLLW
• Goal Accuracy For: Geelong Cats: 64.0%, Essendon Bombers: 58.9%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Geelong Cats: 60.3%, Essendon Bombers: 58.4%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Geelong Cats 87, Essendon Bombers 88
• Win Percentages: Geelong Cats: 48.75%, Essendon Bombers: 50.13%

Geelong’s been on a bit of a rollercoaster wilosing four of their past five games, while Essendon’s looking slightly steadier with three wins and two losses. The Cats’ disposal average of 348.3 per game trails the Bombers’ impressive 377.9, showing Essendon’s been a bit more efficient with the ball. Contested marks see the Cats slightly ahead, averaging 9.8 to the Bombers’ 9.4, highlighting their aerial strength.

Key forwards Kyle Langford and Jeremy Cameron will both be crucial early on, with both highly likely to draw first blood. With both teams equal in their ability to hold a lead at halftime, this match could swing either way. However, the Cats’ slightly better goal accuracy at 64.0% might just tip the scales.

Final Score Prediction: Cats 88-87

Suggested Betting Tip: Cats to win by 1-39 @ $2.60 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 175.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power

Sunday, June 30, 2024

1:10 PM @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Sunday arvo at Marvel Stadium, the Saints and Power game is predicted to be clear skies with a top of 15°C now would be a good time to grab your scarf.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda Saints: 73.1, Port Adelaide Power: 85.9
• Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda Saints: 79.2, Port Adelaide Power: 85.0
• Marks Inside 50: St Kilda Saints: 11.1, Port Adelaide Power: 13.6
• Disposals: St Kilda Saints: 359.6, Port Adelaide Power: 344.3
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: St Kilda Saints: 66.7%, Port Adelaide Power: 100.0%
• Average Winning Margin: St Kilda Saints: 15.4, Port Adelaide Power: 28.5
• Average Losing Margin: St Kilda Saints: 18.1, Port Adelaide Power: 36.0
• Current Streak: St Kilda Saints: L1, Port Adelaide Power: L3
• Current Form: St Kilda Saints: LLWWL, Port Adelaide Power: WWLLL
• Goal Accuracy For: St Kilda Saints: 56.8%, Port Adelaide Power: 50.9%
• Goal Accuracy Against: St Kilda Saints: 56.0%, Port Adelaide Power: 60.2%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: St Kilda Saints 85, Port Adelaide Power 79
• Win Percentages: St Kilda Saints: 56.26%, Port Adelaide Power: 42.64%

Both teams are desperate to bounce back, with St Kilda coming off a loss and Port Adelaide dropping their last three. The Saints have been slightly better with the ball, averaging 359.6 disposals per game against the Power’s 344.3. However, Port’s efficiency inside 50 at 53.1% outclasses the Saints’ 44.1%, suggesting they’ll make more of their scoring chances.

Key forwards Max King and Jack Higgins from the Saints are both looking to take the early lead for the Saints. While the Saints have a better goal accuracy at 56.8%, Port’s ability to hit targets inside 50 could make all the difference, this one should be tight but were tipping the Saints pull through in the last quarter.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 85-79

Suggested Betting Tip: Saints to win by 1-39 @ $2.45 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 160.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues

Sunday, June 30, 2024

3:20 PM @ MCG, Melbourne

This Sunday afternoon at the MCG, the Tigers and Blues are wishing there was a roof. With a forecast of 14°C and partly cloudy skies, it’s prime grissly footy weather for a winter’s day in Melbourne.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: Richmond Tigers: 63.8, Carlton Blues: 97.6
• Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond Tigers: 99.8, Carlton Blues: 85.2
• Marks Inside 50: Richmond Tigers: 9.7, Carlton Blues: 11.4
• Disposals: Richmond Tigers: 327.8, Carlton Blues: 359.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: Richmond Tigers: 0.0%, Carlton Blues: 85.7%
• Average Winning Margin: Richmond Tigers: 6.5, Carlton Blues: 24.6
• Average Losing Margin: Richmond Tigers: 43.1, Carlton Blues: 18.3
• Current Streak: Richmond Tigers: L1, Carlton Blues: W4
• Current Form: Richmond Tigers: LLLWL, Carlton Blues: LWWWW
• Goal Accuracy For: Richmond Tigers: 54.3%, Carlton Blues: 63.3%
• Goal Accuracy Against: Richmond Tigers: 60.2%, Carlton Blues: 61.4%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Richmond Tigers 69, Carlton Blues 108
• Win Percentages: Richmond Tigers: 13.84%, Carlton Blues: 85.47%

The Blues, riding high on a four-game winning streak, have been dominating with an average of 97.6 points per game against Richmond’s meagre 63.8. Carlton’s efficiency inside 50 at 51.3% overshadows Richmond’s 41.3%, showing they’re more likely to capitalise on their chances. Disposal-wise, the Blues average 359.1 compared to the Tigers’ 327.8, reflecting their superior ball movement.

Keep an eye on key forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry Curnow, both likely to make an early impact for the Blues to solidify the pressure on the Tigers. Despite the Tigers’ better hit-outs, averaging 41 per game to the Blues’ 34.5, Carlton’s higher clearance rate (39.7 to 31.2) will play a significant role in the margin.

Final Score Prediction: Blues 108-69

Suggested Betting Tip: Blues to win by 1-39 @ $2.35 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 170.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks

Sunday, June 30, 2024

4:40 PM @ Optus Stadium, Perth

This Sunday arvo at Optus Stadium, it’s the Eagles versus the Hawks. The weather’s set to be as good as you can ask for at this time of year in Perth, with a sunny 18°C forecast​​​​.

Head-to-Head Stats:

• Average Points For Per Match: West Coast Eagles: 70.4, Hawthorn Hawks: 78.4
• Average Points Against Per Match: West Coast Eagles: 96.6, Hawthorn Hawks: 84.6
• Marks Inside 50: West Coast Eagles: 10.5, Hawthorn Hawks: 12.2
• Disposals: West Coast Eagles: 315.1, Hawthorn Hawks: 346.1
• Reliability to Win After Leading at HT %: West Coast Eagles: 60.0%, Hawthorn Hawks: 85.7%
• Average Winning Margin: West Coast Eagles: 37.0, Hawthorn Hawks: 23.3
• Average Losing Margin: West Coast Eagles: 43.5, Hawthorn Hawks: 35.7
• Current Streak: West Coast Eagles: L4, Hawthorn Hawks: W4
• Current Form: West Coast Eagles: WLLLL, Hawthorn Hawks: LWWWW
• Goal Accuracy For: West Coast Eagles: 54.2%, Hawthorn Hawks: 55.2%
• Goal Accuracy Against: West Coast Eagles: 60.1%, Hawthorn Hawks: 63.9%

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: West Coast Eagles 78, Hawthorn Hawks 88
• Win Percentages: West Coast Eagles: 38.55%, Hawthorn Hawks: 60.26%

West Coast is in a bit of a rut, dropping their last four games, while Hawthorn is soaring with four straight wins. The Hawks’ disposal efficiency stands out at 74.1% against the Eagles’ 72.3%, reflecting their sharper ball movement. Inside 50s are telling too, with Hawthorn averaging 52.2 per game to West Coast’s 47.4, suggesting the Hawks will have more scoring opportunities.

Key forwards Jake Waterman and Oscar Allen for the Eagles, and Mabior Chol for the Hawks are ones to watch early on for first goal. Hawthorn’s slightly better goal accuracy at 55.2% over the Eagles’ 54.2% might just make the difference though this is a game for the wooden spoon so the Eagles be playing to stay off the bottom (with Richmond and North both likely to lose this week the bottom three looks to remain the same, however if they if they can both swing a win then the real battle begins next week).

Final Score Prediction: Hawks 88-78

Suggested Betting Tip: Hawks to win by 1-39 @ $2.10 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 162.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

 

Byes

N/A

 

This Week’s AFL Multi Bet

• Brisbane
• Bulldogs
• Sydney
• Carlton
• Hawthorn

Take Bet: $2.71 with  Ladbrokes

Check out all of this week’s AFL multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

 

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