AFL Expert Tips Round 1
1Carlton | Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
1Collingwood | Carlton | 88 | 64.28% | 86 |
1Essendon | Richmond | 76 | 34.75% | 81 |
1GW Sydney | ||||
1Geelong | Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score |
1Gold Coast | Collingwood | 89 | 63.67% | 69 |
1Melbourne | Sydney | 77 | 35.43% | 102 |
1Port Adelaide | ||||
1Fremantle | Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score |
Essendon | 75 | 41.42% | 107 | |
Hawthorn | 83 | 57.44% | 83 | |
Column to hide | ||||
after pasting | Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score |
game keys above | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
#N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | |
Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score | |
Geelong | 81 | 52.88% | 76 | |
St Kilda | 78 | 46.09% | 68 | |
Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score | |
Gold Coast | 89 | 56.06% | 60 | |
Adelaide | 83 | 42.81% | 54 | |
Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score | |
Melbourne | 82 | 59.01% | 109 | |
Western Bulldogs | 74 | 39.79% | 64 | |
Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score | |
Port Adelaide | 108 | 87.06% | 120 | |
West Coast | 67 | 12.29% | 70 | |
Team | Predicted Score | Win Chance | Actual Score | |
Fremantle | 84 | 55.70% | 93 | |
Brisbane Lions | 78 | 43.03% | 70 |
Carlton vs Richmond
Thursday, March 14, 2024
7:30PM @ The MCG
Carlton has started the year on a high note winning their first match of the season last week against the Lions in a nail-biting 86-85 win, The Tigers on the other hand sit at the opposite end of the bus after losing to the Suns by 39 points.
This weeks prediction should be a pretty simple one and we would be silly not to assume that the Blues will win, however, we must also keep in mind that last time they met it ended in a 58-58 draw and there are also a number of injuries returning to the game this week for the Tigers to help boost their arsenal; for the Blues we have Carroll, Doherty, Marchbank, Martin, Motlop, Silvagni, Walsh, and Weitering all out which could definitely casue some issues for the Blues.
That said, the Blues are the still better team this week and should take home the win.
Betting Tip: Carlton Blues
Suggested Bet: Blues – winning margin 1-39 @ $2.05
Collingwood vs Sydney
Friday, March 15, 2024
7:40PM @ The MCG
This weeks game between the Maggies and Swans is an interesting one, Collingwood lost to the Giants in opening round while Sydney managed to score a win against the Demons.
The Swans don’t play too well at the MCG scoring 20.3 points less at the stadium than their season average, and considering the Magpies are playing at home coming off a loss, they will be a fighting force to be reckoned with this week.
regarding injuries, the Magpies have Jeremy Howe currently testing to see if he is fit for play along with McStay and Murphy both having their injuries looking to be confirmed, Kreuger Eyre, and DeMattia are all out for at least another few weeks; As for Sydney, Adams, Parker, Arnold, Sheldrick, Kirk, and Mills will all be out this week which will surely have an impact of their game.
Our money is on the Magpies this week, with too much pride at stake, and a tonne of support at home, they should be back on the winning train this Friday night.
Betting Tip: Collingwood Magpies
Suggested Bet: Collingwood – winning margin 1-24 @ $3.15
Essendon vs Hawthorn
Saturday, March 16, 2024
1:45PM @ The MCG
Both missing out on Opening Round last week, the Bombers and Hawks game this Saturday has the Bombers tipped as favourites to win the game.
In their last meeting the Bombers absolutely destroyed the Hawks winning by 59 points, and with games between these two teams typically being a high scoring affair we can expect the game to be OVER the total points line.
Essendon has Dylan Shiel looking to come back onto the field this week as they are still awaiting word on whether his foot is up to the task while Baldwin, Hunter, Parish, Ridley, and Wanganeen will all miss out this week.
Hawthorns injury list is almost too long to list however they do have both Mitchell and Moore looking to play this week if all goes well in testing.
Betting Tip: Essendon Bombers
Suggested Bet: Bombers – OVER 168.5 @1.88
GWS Giants vs North Melbourne
Saturday, March 16, 2024
4:35PM @ Giants Stadium
After an incredible game against the reigning premiers last week the Giants will be looking to solidify their position at the top of the ladder this week as they take on the North Melbourne Kangaroos.
The Roos are yet to play this season and if last year is anything to go by we may see one of the biggest point differences in the history of the AFL this week, (last year the Kangaroos only won three games).
Finn Callaghan might be fit to return for the Giants this week depending how he goes in testing, however the Giants will still be short Cumming, Gothard, Kennedy, Leake, Preuss, Ward, and Wardius.
The Roos on the Other hand have Corr and McDonald awaiting results from tests, as Logue and Simpkin have no timeline of when they will be returning.
The Giants should win this week easily, however they do have a few key players out which may reduce their winning margin.
Betting Tip: Giants
Suggested Bet: Giants – To Win Both Halves @ $1.44
Geelong vs St Kilda
Saturday, March 16, 2024
7:30PM @ GMHBA Stadium
It’s an exciting week for the Cats as this is the first time in 10 years that they have played their first game of the season at GMHBA stadium, as favourites playing at home this is one game you want to witness if you can make it down there.
The Catters have additionally won their past 11 games against the Saints at home, so expect the Cats army to be in full swing this weekend.
Cam Gurthrie and Gary Rohan are in the sick bay at the moeent and wont be looking to come back to the game for at least the next 4 weeks for the Cats, while the Saints are missing a significant portion of their team with Butler, Clark, Dow, Hayes, Howard, Paton, Van Es, and Webster all missing this weeks game, Jack Sinclair is still questionable as we await the results from testing.
The Cats are at home, and their the favourite, add to this that the Saints have a bunch of injuries and there is no doubt in my mind that the Cats will win this weeks game.
Betting Tip: Geelong Cats
Suggested Bet: Cats – Winning Margin 1-39 @ $2.10
Gold Coast vs Adelaide
Saturday, March 16, 2024
8:10PM @ People First Stadium
The Suns are coming into Round 1 after a 39-point win against the Tigers in the Opening Round, while for the Crows, this will be their first game of the season.
With the Crows winning slightly less than half of their games last season they will be looking at a new lease on life on Saturday as they seek to notch a win against the Suns at the Suns home turf.
The Suns will be without Davies Rogers, Walter and Weller this week due to varying injuries, however the Crows are also starting their season with sevral key injuries including Murray, Schoenberg, Sloane, and Thilthorpe.
If the skills portrayed last week are anything to go by, then the Suns will win this week, however we must also bear in mind that historically the Crows always play an excellent game of football at the beginning of the season.
Expect a close game with the Suns winning by around 15 points.
Betting Tip: Gold Coast Suns
Suggested Bet: Suns – Winning Margin 1-39 @ 2.25
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday, March 17, 2024
1:00PM @ The MCG
Melbourne’s second game this season has them up against the Western Bulldogs who are yet to play a game, the Demons first game however left them walking away with their devil tails between their legs after a 22-point loss to the Swans.
The Bulldogs sat in the middle of the field last season winning 11 games which resulted in them not being able to make the finals.
Looking at the injuries for both teams the Demons will be without Bowey, Hunter, Smith, and Turner, while McAdam, Melksham, and Petty all have a chance to make it back on the field this week; for the Bulldogs Croft, Gardner, O’Driscoll, and Smith are all out, while Dale, O’Donnell and Vandemeer all have a chance at playing.
Honestly this is a tougher call than expected but the injuries for the Bulldogs will prove to be significant, were expecting a Demons win.
Betting Tip: Melbourne Demons
Suggested Bet: Demons – Head-to-Head @ $1.67
Port Adelaide vs West Coast
Sunday, March 17, 2024
4:00PM @ Adelaide Oval
First week back for the Power and the Eagles, Port Adelaide will be hosting the game at home as the Eagles start their rebuilding journey (bad short term news for Eagles fans).
unfortunately for the Eagles, 8 of their last 10 games have all been lost by more than 40 points, adding to that they have also lost 19 of their last 20 games so things arent looking good for the struggling team from the west.
Regarding injuries Marshall may be able to play this week for Port Adelaide, with Jackson, Lord, McCallum, and Powell-Pepper all stuck in the sick corner; meanwhile in the Eagles corner, Bazzo’s groin is still in question, Brockman and Hall may be able to play dependent on testing, and Hewett is still awaiting confirmation on his foot, unfortunately though Culley, Edwards, Flynn, Reid, Ryan, and Sheed are all out for at least the next few weeks.
With both teams having their first game this week its a little too early to tell how they will go against each other but expecting a win for the Power is a good bet.
Betting Tip: Port Adelaide Power
Suggested Bet: Power – Winning Margin 40+ points @ $1.60
Fremantle vs Brisbane
Sunday, March 17, 2024
6:50PM @ Optus Stadium
This week marks the second game for Brisbane this season as the Dockers make their way onto the field for the first time after a dismal season last year.
The Dockers do have the added bonus of having the home field advantage this week, however after Brisbanes hard fought loss last week to the Blues its safe to say they will be coming into this game determined for a win.
Dockers injuries this week include: Chapman, Corbett, Darcy, Kuek, Stanley, and Wagner all missing out on at least this weeks game, with Cox, Frederick, and Murphy all awaiting test results, as Jones and O’Driscoll are still awaiting confirmation on their injuries.
Brisbanes injury list this week includes: Coleman, Doedee, and Michael all out with Ashcroft and Zakostelesky still awaiting confirmation on their injuries.
With Brisbanes close call against the Blues last week, and the significant list of injuries in the Dockers corner it’s fair to say that the Lions will be making an impact on the scoreboard this week.
Betting Tip: Brisbane Lions
Suggested Bet: Lions – Winning Margin 40+ @ 3.90
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