Round OR AFL Football Tips
AFL Football tips for Round OR can be found below. Considering this is a new year, new players, team dynamics, and so forth it’s fair to say that anything can happen in the opening round. Therefor we have given you the straight up facts to give you the truest account of what is happening in the AFL this week.
AFL Round OR
The 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership kicks off with Last years Grand Final winners the Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats on March 6 at the Gabba. This is followed by a huge weekend of AFL football across Sydney, and the Gold Coast. Get all the latest AFL betting tips and catch every game live on Kayo, Foxtel & 7. 🏉🔥
AFL Round OR Tips and Predictions
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats
Thursday, March 6, 2025 (POSTPONED)
5:15 pm @ The Gabba, Brisbane
Final Score Prediction
Lions
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Brisbane Lions set at $1.44, and $2.75 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are heavily backing the Lions at 65.63%, but our numbers suggest they’re only 53.5% likely to win. This means the market is overvaluing Brisbane.
On the flip side, the Cats are given just a 34.37% chance by the bookies, whereas our numbers say they’re much stronger at 46.5%. This creates a betting edge on Geelong, as they are being undervalued.
If our analysis is correct, the true odds for Geelong should be closer to $2.15, yet the bookies are offering $2.75—which presents a solid value bet.
While Brisbane is the favourite, the value bet lies with the Cats at $2.75.
Ball Gravity Effect
Less than 1 millimetre.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane: 92.6, Geelong: 94.1 – (Geelong by 1.5 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane: 76.0, Geelong: 83.8 – (Brisbane by 7.8 points better defensively)
- Average Winning Margin: Brisbane: 39.4, Geelong: 31.7 – (Brisbane by 7.7 points better in wins)
- Average Losing Margin: Brisbane: 21.0, Geelong: 30.0 – (Brisbane by 9.0 points better in losses)
- HT/FT Double: Brisbane: 52.2%, Geelong: 56.5% – (Geelong by 4.3% better at holding leads)
- Goal Accuracy For: Brisbane: 56.2%, Geelong: 63.8% – (Geelong by 7.6% better in accuracy)
- Goal Accuracy Against: Brisbane: 58.7%, Geelong: 61.3% – (Brisbane by 2.6% better defensively)
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Brisbane: 78.6%, Geelong: 86.7% – (Geelong by 8.1% better at holding leads)
- Comeback % (Win After Trailing HT): Brisbane: 66.7%, Geelong: 12.5% – (Brisbane by 54.2% better at comebacks)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Brisbane won by 26 points (63-37) on 20 April 2024
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks
Friday, March 7, 2025
7:40 pm @ The SCG, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Swans
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Sydney Swans set at $1.85, and $1.96 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers have this one as a near toss-up, slightly favouring the Swans at 51.44%, while our analysis has them at 53.4%—almost identical.
Similarly, the bookies give the Hawks 48.56%, while our numbers suggest 46.6%. The differences are marginal, meaning there’s no real value edge on either side.
With odds and probabilities closely aligned, this game doesn’t present a strong betting opportunity. If anything, the Swans offer a tiny bit of value at $1.85, but not enough to justify a big play.
Ball Gravity Effect
Less than 1 millimetre.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Sydney: 97.5, Hawthorn: 90.9 – (Sydney by 6.6 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Sydney: 76.9, Hawthorn: 76.7 – (Hawthorn by 0.2 points better defensively)
- Average Winning Margin: Sydney: 37.3, Hawthorn: 45.0 – (Hawthorn by 7.7 points better in wins)
- Average Losing Margin: Sydney: 26.8, Hawthorn: 33.7 – (Sydney by 6.9 points better in losses)
- HT/FT Double: Sydney: 47.8%, Hawthorn: 56.5% – (Hawthorn by 8.7% better at holding leads)
- Goal Accuracy For: Sydney: 59.3%, Hawthorn: 59.0% – (Sydney by 0.3% better)
- Goal Accuracy Against: Sydney: 56.0%, Hawthorn: 59.3% – (Hawthorn by 3.3% better defensively)
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Sydney: 78.6%, Hawthorn: 86.7% – (Hawthorn by 8.1% better at holding leads)
- Comeback % (Win After Trailing HT): Sydney: 66.7%, Hawthorn: 12.5% – (Sydney by 54.2% better at comebacks)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sydney won by 76 points (118-42) on 28 April 2024
Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers
Saturday, March 8, 2025 (POSTPONED)
5:15 pm @ People First Stadium, Gold Coast
Final Score Prediction
Suns
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Gold Coast Suns is set at $1.46, and $2.70 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies heavily favour the Suns at 64.91%, but our analysis suggests they should only be 53.2% to win. That’s a big gap, meaning Gold Coast is overvalued in the market.
On the other hand, the Bombers are given just 35.09% by the bookies, yet our numbers suggest they actually hav>46.8% chance of winning. This creates a betting edge on Essendon, as they are being significantly undervalued.
If our analysis is correct, the true odds for the Bombers should be closer to $2.14, but the bookies are offering $2.70—which presents a strong value bet.
Ball Gravity Effect
Less than 1 millimetre.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Gold Coast: 83.7, Essendon: 82.3 – (Gold Coast by 1.4 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Gold Coast: 84.5, Essendon: 88.0 – (Gold Coast by 3.5 points better defensively)
- Average Winning Margin: Gold Coast: 30.2, Essendon: 16.5 – (Gold Coast by 13.7 points)
- Average Losing Margin: Gold Coast: 29.2, Essendon: 28.5 – (Essendon by 0.7 points)
- HT/FT Double: Gold Coast: 43.5%, Essendon: 30.4% – (Gold Coast by 13.1% better at holding leads)
- Goal Accuracy For: Gold Coast: 59.4%, Essendon: 59.5% – (Essendon by 0.1% better)
- Goal Accuracy Against: Gold Coast: 61.5%, Essendon: 62.5% – (Gold Coast by 1% better defensively)
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Gold Coast: 90.9%, Essendon: 72.7% – (Gold Coast by 18.2% better at holding leads)
- Comeback % (Win After Trailing HT): Gold Coast: 50.0%, Essendon: 30.0% – (Gold Coast by 20% better at comebacks)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Essendon won by 1 point (87-86) on 10 August 2024
GWS Giants vs Collingwood Magpies
Sunday, March 9, 2025
3:20 pm @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Giants
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for GWS Giants is set at $1.85, and $1.96 for the Collingwood Magpies, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers have this game as nearly even, slightly favouring the Giants at 51.44%, while our model has them at 53.3%. Similarly, the bookies give Collingwood 48.56%, but our numbers suggest 46.7%.
Since the odds and probabilities are almost identical, there’s no clear value on either side. The market seems to be well-aligned with our projections.
This game is a true coin flip, and the odds reflect that. No strong betting edge here.
Ball Gravity Effect
Less than 1 millimetre.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: GWS: 88.4, Collingwood: 86.6 – (GWS by 1.8 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: GWS: 81.0, Collingwood: 84.5 – (GWS by 3.5 points)
- Average Winning Margin: GWS: 23.4, Collingwood: 21.5 – (GWS by 1.9 points)
- Average Losing Margin: GWS: 22.6, Collingwood: 23.3 – (GWS by 0.7 points)
- HT/FT Double: GWS: 43.5%, Collingwood: 39.1% – (GWS by 4.4%)
- Goal Accuracy For: GWS: 64.1%, Collingwood: 57.9% – (GWS by 6.2%)
- Goal Accuracy Against: GWS: 54.1%, Collingwood: 59.2% – (GWS by 5.1% better defensively)
- Reliability to Win After Leading HT: GWS: 76.9%, Collingwood: 69.2% – (GWS by 7.7%)
- Comeback % (Win After Trailing HT): GWS: 50.0%, Collingwood: 30.0% – (GWS by 20% better at comebacks)
- Last Encounter Winner and Margin: GWS won by 32 points (114-82) on 9 March 2024
2025 AFL Premiership Season – Round 1 Schedule
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats
- Thursday, March 6, 2025
- 7:50 pm @ Gabba, Brisbane • Yuggera – Toorabul
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn
- Friday, March 7, 2025
- 7:40 pm @ SCG, Sydney • Gadigal
Gold Coast SUNS vs Essendon
- Saturday, March 8, 2025
- 5:15 pm @ People First Stadium, Gold Coast • Yugambeh
GWS GIANTS vs Collingwood
- Sunday, March 9, 2025
- 3:20 pm @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney • Wangal
AFL Fixture
Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.
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