AFL Betting Tips Finals Week 3

AFL Preliminary Finals 2024

The 2024 AFL prelims are finally here with the Swannies taking on the Power at the SCG on Friday night followed by the battle of the kitties on Saturday as the Cats face off against the Lions down south at the MCG.

Swans vs Power

Friday, September 20, 2024

7:40 pm @ SCG, Sydney

After only just managing to beat the Hawks last week, the mighty Power will be making their way up to Sydney this week to take on the Swannies at their home ground on Friday night.

Final Scores

Swans

93 : 81

Power

Win Percentages

Swans 62.14%

Power 37.87%

Swans

Power

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Sydney Swans set at $1.33, and $3.25 for the Port Adelaide Power, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Swans: 70.97%
Port Adelaide: 29.03%

We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season, this resulted in the following probability:

Swans 53.3%
Port Adelaide 46.7%

Currently the odds for Port Adelaide are significantly undervalued by the bookmakers and Power should actually be closer to $2.14, this presents a value opportunity for a Port Adelaide bet.

Winning Margin Probabilities

Sydney Swans to win by 1-39

42.53%

Sydney Swans to win by 40+

28.12%

Port Adelaide to win by 1-39

24.22%

Port Adelaide to win by 40+

5.13%

While the anticipated margins favour a 1-39 point winning margin suggesting a close game, the odds are significantly better for the Swans with a 18.31% higher chance of winning by 1-39 than Port Adelaide.

Historically when playing each other the Swans and Port Adelaide total score is 23.1 points lower than the 168.5 total points so an UNDER bet is recommended.

Half-time/Full-time Probabilities

Sydney Swans / Sydney Swans

54.62%

Port Adelaide / Port Adelaide

19.90%

Port Adelaide / Sydney Swans

13.48%

Sydney Swans / Port Adelaide

8.36%

Draw at Halftime or Fulltime

3.63%

Anytime Goal Kicker

Port Adelaide	Sydney Swans
Mitch Georgiades 92.59%	Tom Papley 87.72%
Willie Rioli 81.97%	Joel Amartey 85.47%
Todd Marshall 71.43%	Will Hayward 84.03%
Jason Horne-Francis 69.44%	Logan McDonald 80.65%
Darcy Byrne-Jones 66.67%	Chad Warner 78.13%

Head-to-Head Stats:

To provide a clearer picture of how these teams stack up, here’s a head-to-head comparison based on their 2024 season and finals statistics:

Average Points For Per Match: Swans 97.1, Port Adelaide 85.6 – (Swans by 11.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Swans 77.1, Port Adelaide 78.5 – (Swans by 1.4 points)
Average Winning Margin: Swans 35.6, Port Adelaide 28.9 – (Swans by 6.7 points)
Average Losing Margin: Swans 26.8, Port Adelaide 39.3 – (Swans by 12.5 points)
Goal Accuracy For: Swans 59.5%, Port Adelaide 52.4% – (Swans by 7.1%)
Goal Accuracy Against: Swans 56.2%, Port Adelaide 58.1% – (Port Adelaide by 1.9%)
Current Streak: Swans W4, Port Adelaide W1
Choke % (Loss % After Leading at HT): Swans 21.4%, Port Adelaide 0.0% – (Port Adelaide by 21.4%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading at HT): Swans 78.6%, Port Adelaide 100.0% – (Port Adelaide by 21.4%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing at HT): Swans 70.0%, Port Adelaide 46.2% – (Swans by 23.8%)

Suggested Betting Tip:

Swans to win by 1-39 @ $1.33 with
Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 45.5 @ $1.88 with
Neds

Same Game Multi:

Winning Margin: Swans 1-39

HT/FT Double: Swans/Swans

Total Points: UNDER 168.5

Total: $4.59 with Neds

Cats vs Lions

Saturday, September 21, 2024

5:15 PM @ MCG, Melbourne

In a battle Mufasa would be in awe of, the Lions will be on the prowl this week as they charge their way down to Melbourne to take on the Catters at the MCG on Saturday evening.

Final Scores

Cats

73 : 63

Lions

Win Percentages

Cats 52.73%

Lions 47.28%

Cats

Lions

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Geelong Cats set at $1.73, and $2.10 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Cats: 54.85%
Lions: 45.15%

Cats: 50.60%
Lions: 49.40%

Currently the odds for Brisbane Lions undervalued by the bookmakers and Lions should actually be closer to $2.02, this presents a value opportunity for a Brisbane bet.

Winning Margin Probabilities

Geelong Cats to win by 1-39

38.44%

Geelong Cats to win by 40+

16.48%

Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39

33.92%

Brisbane Lions to win by 40+

11.16%

With less than a 5% difference between the Cats and the Lions both winning by 1-39 we’re anticipating a close game with the Cats having a slightly better chance of scoring more than 40 points more than the Lions.

Historically when playing each other the Cats and the Lions total score is 36.5 points lower than the 172.5 total points so an UNDER bet is recommended.

Half-time/Full-time Probabilities

Geelong Cats / Geelong Cats

39.60%

Brisbane Lions / Brisbane Lions

31.98%

Brisbane Lions / Geelong Cats

13.00%

Geelong Cats / Brisbane Lions

11.47%

Draw at Halftime or Fulltime

3.96%

Anytime Goal Kicker

Geelong Cats	Brisbane Lions
Jeremy Cameron 96.15%	Joe Daniher 94.34%
Tyson Stengle 89.29%	Charlie Cameron 83.33%
Shannon Neale 81.97%	Eric Hipwood 78.13%
Oliver Henry 80.65%	Kai Lohmann 71.43%
Shaun Mannagh 71.43%	Logan Morris 71.43%

Head-to-Head Stats:

To provide a clearer picture of how these teams stack up, here’s a head-to-head comparison based on their 2024 season and finals statistics:

Average Points For Per Match: Cats 95.9, Lions 93.4 – (Cats by 2.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Cats 82.6, Lions 76.7 – (Lions by 5.9 points)
Average Winning Margin: Cats 35.0, Lions 36.5 – (Lions by 1.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Cats 30.0, Lions 21.0 – (Lions by 9 points)
Goal Accuracy For: Cats 63.3%, Lions 56.3% – (Cats by 7%)
Goal Accuracy Against: Cats 60.7%, Lions 59.3% – (Cats by 1.4%)
Current Streak: Cats W2, Lions W3
Choke % (Loss % After Leading at HT): Cats 12.5%, Lions 23.5 – (Cats by 11%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading at HT): Cats 87.5%, Lions 76.5% – (Cats by 11%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing at HT): Cats 25.0%, Lions 37.5% – (Lions by 12.5%)