AFL Betting Tips Finals Week 2

AFL Semi Finals 2024

Week 2 of the Australian Football League (AFL) finals series is a pivotal stage in the competition, characterised by high-stakes matches that determine the teams advancing to the Week 3 finals. This week features two crucial knockout games, each with its unique dynamics and implications for the teams involved.

Power vs Hawks

Friday, September 13, 2024

7:40 pm @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Struggling to keep their hopes and dreams alive, this weeks game is so much more than another run of the mill game as the Power and the Hawks square off at Adelaide Oval on Friday night with both teams fighting for a place in the Pre-lims.

Head-to-Head Stats:

To provide a clearer picture of how these teams stack up, here’s a head-to-head comparison based on their 2024 season and finals statistics:

Average Points For Per Match: Power 86.0, Hawks 91.2 – (Hawks by 5.2 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Power 78.8, Hawks 76.0 – (Hawks by 2.8 points)
Average Winning Margin: Power 30.6, Hawks 44.5 – (Hawks by 13.9 points)
Average Losing Margin: Power 39.3, Hawks 33.7 – (Hawks by 5.6 points)
Completion Rate: Power 71.8%, Hawks 74.7% – (Hawks by 2.9%)
Efficiency Inside 50: Power 51.6%, Hawks 49.9% – (Power by 1.7%)
Tackles Inside 50: Power 13.2, Hawks 11.2 – (Power by 2.0)
Clearances: Power 37.5, Hawks 36.6 – (Power by 0.9)
Contested Possessions: Power 129.1, Hawks 131.3 – (Hawks by 2.2)
Uncontested Possessions: Power 207.0, Hawks 224.8 – (Hawks by 17.8)
Disposal Efficiency: Power 71.8%, Hawks 74.7% – (Hawks by 2.9%)
Tackle Efficiency: Power 86.1%, Hawks 88.9% – (Hawks by 2.8%)
Wins This Season: Power 66.7% (12/18), Hawks 61.1% (11/18) – (Power by 5.6%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Power won by 1 point (80-79) on 19 May 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Power 100%, Hawks 87.5% – (Power by 12.5%)
HT/FT Double: Power 37.5%, Hawks 58.3% – (Hawks by 20.8%)

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Power 88, Hawks 90
Win Percentages: Power 45.91%, Hawthorn 54.09%

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Port Adelaide set at $2.35, and $1.60 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Hawthorn: 59.48%
Port Adelaide: 40.52%

We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season, this resulted in the following probability:

Power 51.3%
Hawthorn 48.7%

By adding the two together the final percentage difference resulted in a much closer combined probability of Hawthorn Hawks winning by 8.18%.

Winning Margin Probabilities:

Port Adelaide to win by 1-39: 31.02%
Port Adelaide to win by 40+: 9.39%
Draw: 1.70%
Hawthorn to win by 1-39: 38.60%
Hawthorn to win by 40+: 19.29%

While the anticipated margins favour a 1-39 point winning margin suggesting a close game, the odds are significantly better for the Hawks with a 7.58% higher chance of winning by 1-39 and a 9.9% higher chance of winning by 40+.

Suggested Betting Tip: Hawthorn to win by 1-39 @ $2.25 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 166.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

Same Game Multi:

Winning Margin: Hawthorn 1-39
Anytime Goal Kicker: Mabior Chol
Anytime Goal Kicker: Charlie Dixon
HT/FT Double: Port/Hawthorn
Both teams to score 60: Yes

Total @ $10.45 with Neds

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Giants vs Lions

Saturday, September 14, 2024

7:30 PM @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney

Seeking the coveted final position in the preliminary finals the Giants and the Lions will be going head-to-head in the last game of the Semi Finals at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday night.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Giants 88.2, Lions 92.9 – (Lions by 4.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Giants 81.3, Lions 75.8 – (Lions by 5.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Giants 23.4, Lions 38.6 – (Lions by 15.2 points)
Average Losing Margin: Giants 20.8, Lions 21.0 – (Lions by 0.2 points)
Completion Rate: Giants 73.1%, Lions 72.7% – (Giants by 0.4%)
Efficiency Inside 50: Giants 47.6%, Lions 50.1% – (Lions by 2.5%)
Tackles Inside 50: Giants 11.5, Lions 10.8 – (Giants by 0.7)
Clearances: Giants 37, Lions 40.2 – (Lions by 3.2)
Contested Possessions: Giants 136, Lions 133.5 – (Giants by 2.5)
Uncontested Possessions: Giants 228.6, Lions 222.2 – (Giants by 6.4)
Disposal Efficiency: Giants 73.1%, Lions 72.7% – (Giants by 0.4%)
Tackle Efficiency: Giants 86.5%, Lions 85.2% – (Giants by 1.3%)
Wins This Season: Giants 55.6% (10/18), Lions 61.1% (11/18) – (Lions by 5.5%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Giants won by 18 points (82-64) on 10 August 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Giants 71.4%, Lions 76.5% – (Lions by 5.1%)
HT/FT Double: Giants 41.7%, Lions 54.2% – (Lions by 12.5%)

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Giants 95, Lions 88
Win Percentages: Giants 52.88%, Lions 47.13%

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for GWS Giants set at $1.73, and $2.10 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

GWS: 54.85%
Brisbane: 45.15%

Giants: 50.90%
Lions: 49.10%

By adding the two together the final percentage difference resulted in a much closer combined probability of GWS Giants winning by 5.75%.

Winning Margin Probabilities:

GWS Giants to win by 1-39: 37.06%
GWS Giants to win by 40+: 16.75%
Draw: 1.71%
Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39: 32.87%
Brisbane Lions to win by 40+: 11.61%

With less than a 5% difference between the Giants and the Lions both winning by 1-39 we’re anticipating a close game with the Giants having a slightly better chance of scoring more than 40 points more than the Lions.

Suggested Betting Tip: GWS to win by 1-39 @ $2.35 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 169.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

Same Game Multi: