AFL Betting Tips Finals Week 1

AFL Finals Week 1

The opening week of the AFL finals is always an exciting start to the postseason, featuring four crucial matchups that will shape the path to the Grand Final. With everything on the line, each game is set to deliver high-stakes action as teams battle for their chance to advance.

The finals are split between Qualifying Finals, where winners secure a direct path to the Preliminary Finals, and Elimination Finals, where teams face do-or-die matches to keep their premiership hopes alive.

AFL Expert Tips for Finals Week 1

AFL Tips for Week 1 of the finals kick off on Thursday with a blockbuster showdown at Adelaide Oval, where Port Adelaide Power hosts the Geelong Cats. The action concludes on Saturday as the Brisbane Lions take on the Carlton Blues at the SCG, with each game carrying significant consequences for the season’s outcome.

Power vs Cats

Thursday, September 5, 2024

7:40 pm @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

The 2024 AFL Finals series kicks off with a high-stakes game between Port Adelaide and Geelong at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night at 7:40 pm. This match is particularly significant as the winner secures a home preliminary final, offering a crucial advantage in the finals campaign.

Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats AFL finals week matchup.

Head-to-Head Stats:

To provide a clearer picture of how these teams stack up, here’s a head-to-head comparison based on their 2024 season statistics:

Average Points For Per Match: Power 87.4, Cats 94.1 – (Cats by 6.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Power 76.2, Cats 83.8 – (Power by 7.6 points)
Average Winning Margin: Power 30.6, Cats 31.7 – (Cats by 1.1 points)
Average Losing Margin: Power 32.9, Cats 30.0 – (Cats by 2.9 points)
Disposal Efficiency: Power 71.9%, Cats 69.4% – (Power by 2.5%)
Efficiency Inside 50: Power 52.2%, Cats 48.5% – (Power by 3.7%)
Wins This Season: Power 50% (11/22), Cats 55% (12/22) – (Cats by 5%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Power won by 6 points (101-95) on 10 May 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Power 100%, Cats 86.7% – (Power by 13.3%)
HT/FT Double: Power 39.1%, Cats 56.5% – (Cats by 17.4%)

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Power 99, Cats 90
Win Percentages: Power 52.8%, Cats 47.2%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Port Adelaide Power are better in average points per match, disposal efficiency, efficiency inside 50, and have a solid 100% reliability to win after leading at HT.

Geelong Cats are better in average points per match, winning margin, have a smaller losing margin, have more wins this season, and have a better HT/FT double percentage.

Quick Insight

This will be the third qualifying final between these two teams at the Adelaide Oval in the past five seasons, with Port Adelaide emerging victorious in the previous two encounters, 58-42 and 86-43. Earlier in the 2024 season, the Power secured a surprising 101-95 win over Geelong at Kardinia Park, despite a spirited second-half comeback from the Cats. In that game, Zak Butters and Ollie Wines were standout performers for Port Adelaide, contributing significantly with 34 and 33 disposals respectively, while both also added a goal to their tallies. On the other side, Willie Rioli and Tyson Stengle were the top goal-scorers for their teams, each kicking four goals.
Geelong’s recent finals record is concerning, having lost five of their last six opening finals matches. However, the Cats’ overall performance this season still makes them formidable opponents.

The statistics reveal a closely matched contest, with the Cats holding a slight edge in scoring ability, while the Power excel in efficiency, both inside 50 and in disposals. Port Adelaide’s perfect record when leading at halftime adds to their strengths, suggesting that an early lead could be crucial for them in this match.

Final Score Prediction:

Port Adelaide Power 99-90

Suggested Betting Tip: Power to win by 1-39 @ $2.05 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 163.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

Same Game Multi:

HT/FT Double: Power/Power

Winning Margin: Power 1-39

OVER/UNDER: OVER 163.5

Total @ $4.82 with Neds

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Bulldogs vs Hawks

Friday, September 6, 2024

7:40 PM @ The MCG, Melbourne

Friday night at the MCG will see two of the AFL’s most in-form teams clash as the Western Bulldogs take on Hawthorn in a highly anticipated elimination final. Both teams have shown remarkable resilience and form in the latter half of the season, making this one of the most intriguing matchups of the finals this week.

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL finals week matchup.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Bulldogs 94.4, Hawks 90.9 – (Bulldogs by 3.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Bulldogs 75.5, Hawks 76.7 – (Bulldogs by 1.2 points)
Average Winning Margin: Bulldogs 49.1, Hawks 45.0 – (Bulldogs by 4.1 points)
Average Losing Margin: Bulldogs 28.1, Hawks 33.7 – (Bulldogs by 5.6 points)
Disposal Efficiency: Bulldogs 73.5%, Hawks 74.7% – (Hawks by 1.2%)
Efficiency Inside 50: Bulldogs 50.5%, Hawks 50% – (Bulldogs by 0.5%)
Wins This Season: Bulldogs 50% (11/22), Hawks 55% (12/22) – (Hawks by 5%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Hawks won by 7 points (98-91) on 5 May 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Bulldogs 92.9%, Hawks 86.7% – (Bulldogs by 6.2%)
HT/FT Double: Bulldogs 56.5%, Hawks 56.5% – (Even)

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Bulldogs 99, Hawks 92
Win Percentages: Bulldogs 53.2%, Hawks 46.8%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Western Bulldogs are better in average points for and against per match, winning and losing margins, efficiency inside 50, and reliability to win after leading at halftime.

Hawthorn Hawks are better in disposal efficiency, wins this season, and won their last game by 7 points.

Quick Insight

Hawthorn’s rise to seventh place has been nothing short of extraordinary. After starting the season 0-5, the Hawks have turned their fortunes around, winning 14 of their last 18 games. Their latest win was a commanding 170-46 demolition of North Melbourne in Launceston, a performance that secured their place in the finals and marked them as only the third team in V/AFL history to play finals after such a poor start.

Hawthorn’s recent dominance at the MCG is also noteworthy, with the Hawks winning their last five games at the ground by an average margin of 55.6 points.
The Western Bulldogs have been equally impressive, particularly in recent months. A convincing 98-61 win over GWS in Round 24 marked their sixth win in seven matches, underscoring their strong finish to the season. However, their recent history at the MCG has been less favourable, with the Bulldogs winning just two of their last six games here.

We’re expecting this one to be super tight, but the Doggies form overall this season should see them pip them at the post.

Final Score Prediction:

Bulldogs 99-92

Suggested Betting Tip: Bulldogs to win by 1-39 @ $1.73 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 166.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

Same Game Multi:

HT/FT Double: Hawks/Bulldogs

Winning Margin: Bulldogs 1-39

OVER/UNDER: OVER 166.5

Total @ $11.15 with Neds

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Swans vs Giants

Saturday, September 7, 2024

3:20 PM @ the SCG, Sydney

The stage is set for another chapter in the Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants rivalry as these two fierce competitors face off in an elimination final at the SCG on Saturday afternoon.

Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants AFL finals week matchup.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Swans 97.5, Giants 88.4 – (Swans by 9.1 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Swans 76.9, Giants 81.0 – (Swans by 4.1 points)
Average Winning Margin: Swans 37.3, Giants 23.4 – (Swans by 13.9 points)
Average Losing Margin: Swans 26.8, Giants 22.6 – (Giants by 4.2 points)
Disposal Efficiency: Swans 72.3%, Giants 73.2% – (Giants by 0.9%)
Efficiency Inside 50: Swans 50.6%, Giants 47.6% – (Swans by 3.0%)
Wins This Season: Swans 50% (11/22), Giants 55% (12/22) – (Giants by 5%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Swans won by 27 points (102-75) on 22 June 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Swans 78.6%, Giants 76.9% – (Swans by 1.7%)
HT/FT Double: Swans 47.8%, Giants 43.5% – (Swans by 4.3%)

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Sydney Swans 103, GWS Giants 92
Win Percentages: Swans 54.4%, Giants 45.6%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Sydney Swans are better in points for and against per match, winning margin, efficiency inside 50, reliability to win after leading at halftime, and also the HT/FT double.

GWS Giants are better in losing margin, disposal efficiency, and have more wins this season.

Quick Insight

This marks the fourth time these clubs have met in a finals match, with the Giants having won all three previous encounters. Their most recent finals clash took place in Launceston during the COVID-19-impacted 2021 season, where GWS edged out Sydney by a single point, 74-73. Toby Greene has been instrumental in those last three finals, consistently performing with an average of 19 disposals per game, contributing 21 score involvements and kicking eight goals across the three matchups.

However, the 2024 season has seen a shift in momentum. Sydney dominated both regular season games against GWS, securing victories by 29 points (98-69) at the SCG and 27 points (102-75) at ENGIE Stadium. Errol Gulden was a standout in both games, amassing 70 disposals and generating 1,738 metres gained, while also contributing a goal in each game. Sydney’s recent form against the Giants has been strong, with five wins in their last six meetings, including a narrow loss where they led by 24 points early in the fourth quarter.

This is the one game I am looking forward to watching this weekend, the Swans have dominated the Giants this season, however GWS has a stranglehold over them when it comes to finals, we have a feeling the Swans will break that stranglehold this week.

Final Score Prediction:

Sydney Swans 103-92

Suggested Betting Tip: Swans to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Neds

OVER/UNDER Bet: OVER 172.5 @ $1.88 with Neds

Same Game Multi:

HT/FT Double: Swans/Swans

Winning Margin: Swans 1-39

OVER/UNDER: OVER 172.5

Total @ $5.21 with Neds

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Lions vs Blues

Saturday, September 7, 2024

7:30 PM @ the Gabba, Brisbane

Saturday night at the Gabba will see Brisbane and Carlton face off in an elimination final, revisiting the scene of their 2023 preliminary final clash.

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues AFL finals week matchup.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Lions 92.6, Blues 93.5 – (Blues by 0.9 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Lions 76.0, Blues 84.9 – (Lions by 8.9 points)
Average Winning Margin: Lions 39.4, Blues 30.1 – (Lions by 9.3 points)
Average Losing Margin: Lions 21.0, Blues 19.2 – (Blues by 1.8 points)
Disposal Efficiency: Lions 72.7%, Blues 72.6% – (Lions by 0.1%)
Efficiency Inside 50: Lions 49.7%, Blues 49.9% – (Blues by 0.2%)
Wins This Season: Lions 50% (11/22), Blues 45% (10/22) – (Lions by 5%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Blues won by 1 point (86-85) on 8 March 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Lions 75%, Blues 72.7% – (Lions by 2.3%)
HT/FT Double: Lions 52.2%, Blues 34.8% – (Lions by 17.4%)

Outcome Prediction:

Final Scores: Brisbane Lions 101, Carlton Blues 93
Win Percentages: Lions 53.8%, Blues 46.2%

Statistically Who is Better and Where?

Brisbane Lions have a better average points against per match, winning margin, disposal efficiency, wins this season, reliability to win after leading at HT, and a better HT/FT double.

Carlton Blues are better in average points per match, have a smaller losing margin, better efficiency inside 50, and won their last game by 1 point.

Quick Insight

In that 2023 Preliminary final game mentioned earlier, the Blues surged to a 30-point lead in the first quarter, only for Brisbane to claw their way back to a 79-63 victory, thanks in large part to Lachie Neale’s standout performance, which included 23 disposals, 15 contested possessions, and eight clearances.

The 2024 season opener between these two sides at the Gabba told a different story. Carlton pulled off a stunning comeback, overturning a 46-point deficit midway through the second quarter to win 86-85. Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow were instrumental in that win, combining for seven goals. Both forwards are expected to return for Saturday’s final after missing the last two rounds of the regular season, bringing a significant boost to Carlton’s attacking options.

However, while the return of McKay and Curnow is crucial, the midfield battle between Patrick Cripps and Lachie Neale could be the deciding factor. Carlton has been formidable when Cripps dominates, boasting a 7-1 record when he records 31 or more disposals in 2024. Similarly, Brisbane’s success often hinges on Neale’s output; they are 9-1 when he gathers 30 or more disposals.

The way the game has unfolded between these two teams in recent games pretty much leaves anything on the table for Saturday night, however you can never underestimate the Lions in front of their home crowd, and we can see a strong comeback in the second half.