Derby Day Tips 2024
The Flemington Spring Carnival is upon us and it kicks off with Derby Day this Saturday.
Let’s get bloody stuck in!
The rail is in the true for the entire circuit, weather is good. Track should play fair to all and races should be dictated by tempo.
Current Derby Day tips can be found below,
Saturday, November 2, 2024 @ Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne
Expected tempo/speed: Solid 🔥
Not a race i am overly keen to bet into but there does seem to be some value.
ACTA NON VERBA should be able to lead this bunch comfortably.
He could very much pinch it from up in front and prove hard to catch.
The big Flemington straight and the speed he’s like to inject “should” favour those running on.
KING OF ENTERPRISE should be suited up to this trip and is lightly raced.
Ready to improve and was 2nd to ANV at his first start, Bowman jumps aboard.
Hard to knock FEROCE with his form lines but $2? No thanks.
CANARA is another one that can improve after being wide most of the trip and ran really well.
2nd to AELIANA last start but you could argue that CANARA’s run was better. Shinn on.
Could speck those at a price if you’re feeling frisky.
Numbers: 7 – 5 – 3 – 1
Expected tempo/speed: Solid 🔥
Massive field here of some pretty good horses.
Struggled to really unpack this race but I could give a shout to MORE TERRITORIES at a price.
4th up here with Bowman on and if she likes the Melbourne way of going should appreciate the big straight.
Should be more positive and can get a suck run in on one of the leaders engaged around her.
Looks to be enough speed on to suit.
Won’t be betting silly though is this wide open race, maybe a small 1×4 bet keeping the place on side.
Numbers: 12 – 9 – 7 – 13
Expected tempo/speed: Above Average
Is PRESS DOWN the forgotten horse here?
I think so, forgiving of the first time down down Flemington straight.
Nice win in Adelaide over MARBLE NINE
Will make his own luck on the speed, low confidence though with the jockey engagement but maybe that’s why we’re getting a price?
JOHNNY ROCKER should be ready to rock now.
Hopefully he jumps clean, will be in the right part of the track with the tempo to suit.
IT’SOURTIME and STAR PATROL next best.
Numbers: 8 – 4 – 5 – 1
Expected tempo/speed: Above Average
Hard to get away from JIMMYSSTAR and ANOTHER WILL
If they don’t over do it, ANOTHER WILL is a great chance.
Giving him none if they do, which i suspect they go above benchmark.
There is a value runner in and around those that could be knockout hope.
STEPARTY, just has to be over the odds on the quick back up.
If they burn the candle up front he could run a race.
TAMERLANE is next best.
Numbers: 5 – 2 – 8 – 3
Expected tempo/speed: Average – Above
POWERS OF OPAL looks a cut above this lot.
Might make a mess of them on.
INEVITABLE TRUTH has a sticky barrier but wasn’t given the best of rides last start.
You know she will run out the 2000m.
Numbers: 5 – 10 – 14 – 8
Expected tempo/speed: Average – Above
What a ripping race this is.
Stars everywhere, which one will shine the brightest?
Have a LOT of time for GROWING EMPIRE but will it be 1 run to many?
Or the one where he stamps himself?
LADY OF CAMELOT had a great run in the Everest behind GROWING EMPIRE
I love that GE has been up the straight before and drawn wide.
BITTERCREEK was huge last start, no reason he can’t run a race at $50-1
Was 2nd to GROWING EMPIRE early on, and also has some BROADSIDING form-lines albeit over further.
Really warming to SWITZERLAND at the price.
Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 13
Expected tempo/speed: Average – Above
Such a hard race to find the winner.
Happy to be against the fave EL CASTELLO from the wide draw.
We were on KINGOFWALLSTREET last start who showed plenty of fight.
No reason why he can’t go on with it here at a price with G1 Mick Dee taking the ride.
SAINT EMILION was enormous last start and has to be respected. Over the odds.
Numbers: 6 – 5 – 9 – 1
Expected tempo/speed: Average – Above
ALSEPHINA has been building to this.
Blake Shinn takes the ride.
ATISHU on top of the ground at Flemington could be huge.
Will be backing both to run well.
LADY IN PINK can run another bold race again.
Numbers: 7 – 1 – 12 – 2
Expected tempo/speed: Above Average
Think this race is for the bin.
PONDALOWIE looks the best bet in the race though.
FACILE is extremely over the odds.
Numbers: 19 – 1 – 17 – 3
Quaddie Bet
Finding A Winner On Derby Day
Derby Day is one of the biggest days in Australian racing, with top-quality horses, prestigious Group 1 races, and a fantastic atmosphere at Flemington. Here’s how to approach finding a winner on Derby Day:
1. Look for Top-Class 3-Year-Olds in the Victoria Derby
- Breeding and Stamina: The Victoria Derby is a gruelling 2500m race for 3-year-olds, so horses bred for staying (distance) races have an edge. Look for runners with European or Kiwi bloodlines known for stamina.
- Lead-Up Form: Horses that perform well in lead-up races like the Caulfield Classic or the Moonee Valley Vase often carry that form into the Derby. Look for horses that have hit the line strongly in these races; it’s a good sign they can handle the extra distance.
- Late Developers: Some 3-year-olds really hit their stride in spring, so pay attention to improving horses who may have flown under the radar early on.
2. Back Quality Horses in the Group 1 Races
- Quality Over Odds: On Derby Day, the fields are stacked with quality horses, and favourites have a good strike rate. Don’t be afraid to back shorter-priced horses if they have solid form and proven class. Group 1 horses often run to their ability here.
- Track and Distance Form: Group 1 races on Derby Day range from sprints to middle distances. Look for horses that have already shown their ability at similar distances, especially those with proven form at Flemington.
3. Look for Specialist Sprinters and Middle-Distance Stars
- Sprinters in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m): This is a race for star 3-year-old sprinters. Horses with strong form down the Flemington straight or who have shone in the lead-up sprints (like the Blue Sapphire or Roman Consul Stakes) are good chances.
- Middle-Distance Form for the Cantala Stakes (1600m): Horses that can handle a mile well tend to shine in the Cantala Stakes. Look for runners who have been competitive in races around 1400–1600m, especially those that can handle the big-field pressure typical on Derby Day.
4. Keep an Eye on Trainers with a Strong Derby Day Record
- Watch for the Masters: Trainers like Chris Waller, James Cummings, and Ciaron Maher have a great record on Derby Day. They often bring their best horses and know how to prepare them for these races.
- Well-Planned Campaigns: Trainers targeting Derby Day will have their horses peaking, so look at those with a carefully planned spring campaign building toward this day.
5. Barrier Draw and Track Positioning
- Barrier Advantage: Flemington is known for its wide track, but in big fields, barriers still matter. Horses drawn out wide in staying races like the Derby can find themselves covering too much ground. Check for horses drawn in middle barriers, especially if they prefer to be on the pace.
- Positioning and Tempo: Horses with good gate speed or tactical versatility do well on Derby Day, especially with big fields and tough competition. Look for runners who can sit just off the pace without getting boxed in.
6. Weather and Track Conditions
- Adaptability to Conditions: Melbourne’s spring weather is unpredictable, so pay attention to the track condition on the day. Some horses perform best on good tracks, while others thrive on softer going. Look for versatile runners if the weather’s uncertain.
- Race-Day Decisions: Check updates for any track downgrades or scratchings due to weather changes, as this can affect some horses’ chances.
7. Look for Horses Peaking at the Right Time
- In-Form Runners: Many horses are at the peak of their spring campaigns on Derby Day. Check each horse’s last couple of runs – those that are improving and hitting their stride are often ready to perform.
- Stay Fresh for the Big Races: In some cases, trainers will deliberately keep a horse fresh for Derby Day rather than running them every week. Fresh runners with consistent form can be well worth a bet.
8. Take Note of Jockeys Who Shine on Big Days
- Top Jockeys: Derby Day attracts the country’s best jockeys, and those with experience at Flemington – like Damien Oliver, Craig Williams, and James McDonald – know how to get the most out of their rides.
- Jockey Choice Matters: If a leading jockey has chosen one mount over another, it can be a strong indicator of the horse’s chances. Jockeys often have a good sense of which horse will perform best.
9. Late Market Moves
- Big Money Means Big Confidence: Watch for any significant late market moves. If a horse starts shortening in odds late in the day, especially one with strong form, it’s often a sign that someone knows it’s primed to run a big race.
- Stable Support: When a stable’s runners are consistently backed throughout the day, it can signal confidence in their preparation and form.
10. Enjoy the Excitement and Trust Your Gut
- Derby Day is as much about the thrill of the races as it is about the punt. If you have a gut feeling about a particular horse or see a roughie you like, it’s worth backing – after all, part of Derby Day’s magic is the surprises it can deliver.
With these tips, you’ll have a strong foundation to enjoy the racing on Derby Day and give yourself a good shot at finding a winner. Good luck, and enjoy one of the best days on the Aussie racing calendar!
