West Coast vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

West Coast Eagles vs Essendon Bombers Predictions

Game 3 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees West Coast vs Essendon on April 18 at Optus Stadium on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 18, 2025

6:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth

Final Score Prediction

West Coast

59 : 81

Essendon

Win Percentages

West Coast 35.52%

Essendon 64.48%

West Coast

Essendon

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for West Coast Eagles set at $4.10, and $1.24 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Eagles 23.22%
Bombers 76.78%

Opportunity Bet

It’s no secret the Eagles are struggling, five straight losses will do that. But while Essendon are deserved favourites, the gap between the market and our predicted probabilities opens the door to a cheeky bit of value.

The Betting Edge

Here’s the thing, the bookies are giving the Bombers a whopping 76.78% chance of winning, but our model pegs them at 64.48%. That’s still a clear edge to Essendon, but it’s not the cakewalk the odds are implying.

West Coast, despite their losing streak, are rated at a 35.52% chance by our model, and that makes their true odds closer to $2.82. Compare that to the market’s $4.10, and you’ve got yourself a solid bit of value for a roughie.

Essendon should win this, no doubt, but not as comfortably as the odds suggest. West Coast are offering up serious value at $4.10, especially with our model showing them closer to a 1 in 3 shot.

That +27.5 line looks very playable, and if you’re feeling bold, the 1–39 win margin at $4.50 gives you a decent payout if they can cause a stir (don’t expect that to happen though). Don’t write the Eagles off just yet, there’s value in the Line Bet.

What to do?

West Coast +27.5 at $1.90, looks decent if they can stay within striking distance

Our predicted total is 140, so leaning under on this one, at home West Coast’s average point for is currently 58.5 and the bombers away average points for is 90.5, thats still a significant 26.5 points less than the estimated OVER/UNDER.

Suggested Betting Tip:

West Coast +27.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Essendon @ $1.24 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Essendon 1-39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

West Coast vs Essendon SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: West Coast: 58.6, Essendon: 88.3 – (Essendon by 29.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: West Coast: 117.8, Essendon: 97.3 – (Essendon by 20.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: West Coast: N/A, Essendon: 25.5 – (Essendon edge)
Average Losing Margin: West Coast: 59.2, Essendon: 43.5 – (Essendon by 15.7 points)
HT/FT Double %: West Coast: 0.0%, Essendon: 25.0% – (Essendon by 25%)
Highest Score For: West Coast: 75, Essendon: 100 – (Essendon by 25 points)
Highest Score Against: West Coast: 136, Essendon: 161 – (West Coast by 25 points)
Biggest Win: West Coast: N/A, Essendon: 39 – (Essendon edge)
Biggest Loss: West Coast: 87, Essendon: 61 – (Essendon more resilient by 26 points)
Highest Total Match Score: West Coast: 185, Essendon: 261 – (Essendon by 76 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: West Coast: 169, Essendon: 132 – (Essendon by 37 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: West Coast: 49.4%, Essendon: 60.7% – (Essendon by 11.3%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: West Coast: 59.3%, Essendon: 63.0% – (West Coast by 3.7%)
Current Streak: West Coast: L5, Essendon: W2 – (Essendon momentum)
Current Form: West Coast: LLLLL, Essendon: LLWW – (Essendon edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): West Coast: 100.0%, Essendon: 0.0% – (Essendon by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): West Coast: 0.0%, Essendon: 100.0% – (Essendon by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): West Coast: 0.0%, Essendon: 33.3% – (Essendon by 33.3%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Essendon won by 30 points (122-92) on 23rd June 2024