St Kilda vs Geelong Tips Prediction & Betting Analysis

St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats Predictions

The last game for Saturday of this weeks Toyota AFL Premiership Tips and Predictions has St Kilda vs Geelong at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

St Kilda vs Geelong

Saturday, March 22, 2025

7:35 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Saints

75 : 141

Cats

Win Percentages

St Kilda 38.35%

Geelong 61.65%

St Kilda

Geelong

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for St Kilda Saints set at $3.70, and $1.28 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Saints 25.17%
Cats 74.29%

Review

Geelong looked unstoppable last week, thumping Fremantle 147-69 in a statement win. Bailey Smith starred on debut, collecting 32 disposals, 693 metres gained, 12 score involvements and a goal in a standout performance. The Cats’ goal accuracy of 74.2% was clinical, and they looked sharp across all lines.

St Kilda, on the other hand, were outclassed by Adelaide, conceding 135 points in a heavy loss. But history gives Saints fans hope—they’ve beaten the Cats in their last three Marvel Stadium matchups, including a 107-89 upset in Round 23 last year, where Rowan Marshall dominated with 28 disposals, 17 contested possessions, and 10 clearances.

Marshall, recovering from a pre-season pelvis injury, played limited midfield minutes last week. Whether he returns to full ruck duties could be a key factor in this game.

Opportunity Bet

Biggest takeaway? The Saints are undervalued!

The bookmakers are seriously underestimating St Kilda, giving them only a 25.17% probability, while our numbers suggest they have a much stronger 38.35% chance.
If our analysis is correct, the fair odds for St Kilda should be closer to $2.61, yet they’re available at $3.70—a huge value opportunity.
Meanwhile, Geelong is overvalued—the bookies price them at a 74.29% probability, but our numbers suggest they should be 61.65%.

Final Take

📌 St Kilda at $3.70 is a strong value bet—the bookies may be seriously underrating them.
📌 Geelong is a heavy favourite but overpriced, meaning there’s little value in backing them at $1.28.
📌 If you’re looking for an underdog play, St Kilda offers solid upside at these odds!

Backing the Saints at $3.70 in this particular St Kilda vs Geelong game could be a sneaky high-value play… however we don’t see it happening this week!

Suggested Betting Tip:

Geelong 40+ @ $2.75 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Geelong (NO VALUE) @ $1.28 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Geelong -23.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 170.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

St Kilda vs Geelong SGM

St Kilda vs Geelong Head-to-Head Stats (2025 Season)

Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda: 72.0, Geelong: 147.0 – (Geelong by 75 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda: 135.0, Geelong: 69.0 – (Geelong by 66 points)
Average Winning Margin: St Kilda: N/A, Geelong: 78.0
Average Losing Margin: St Kilda: 63.0, Geelong: N/A
HT/FT Double %: St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 100.0% – (Geelong by 100%)
Highest Score For: St Kilda: 72, Geelong: 147 – (Geelong by 75 points)
Highest Score Against: St Kilda: 135, Geelong: 69 – (St Kilda by 66 points)
Biggest Win: St Kilda: N/A, Geelong: 78
Biggest Loss: St Kilda: 63, Geelong: N/A
Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207, Geelong: 216 – (Geelong by 9 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207, Geelong: 216 – (Geelong by 9 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: St Kilda: 50.0%, Geelong: 74.2% – (Geelong by 24.2%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: St Kilda: 72.4%, Geelong: 71.4% – (St Kilda by 1%)
Current Streak: St Kilda: L1, Geelong: W1 – (Geelong streak 1)
Current Form: St Kilda: L, Geelong: W – (Geelong by 1 win)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 100.0% – (Geelong by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)