Richmond vs Gold Coast Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Richmond Tigers vs Gold Coast SUNS Predictions

Game 6 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Richmond vs Gold Coast on April 19 at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 19, 2025

7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Richmond

72 : 122

Gold Coast

Win Percentages

Richmond 31.36%

Gold Coast 68.64%

Richmond

Gold Coast

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Richmond Tigers set at $8.25, and $1.07 for the Gold Coast SUNS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Tigers 11.48%
SUNS 88.52%

Opportunity Bet

This one’s looking like a blowout on paper, and the bookies have priced it like it’s already over. But our model tells a different story, the Suns should still win, but Richmond are ‘nowhere near’ as far behind as the odds suggest.

The Betting Edge

This is one of the biggest market misreads we’ve seen all round. The Suns are priced as if they’re near-certainties, with an implied win chance of 88.52%. But our model brings them back down to earth at 68.64%, still favourites, but far from unbeatable.

That means Richmond, with a 31.36% chance according to our data, should be paying closer to $3.19, and they’re currently out at $8.25. That’s an ‘enormous’ value edge. You’re getting way over the odds on the Tigers here.

If you’re the kind of punter who plays the long game and backs data-driven underdogs, this is exactly the kind of scenario you wait for. The model’s not saying Richmond will win, but at those odds, it’s well worth a go.

Gold Coast should win this, but the market has gone way too far. Richmond are being priced like they’ve got no hope, yet our model gives them almost a 1-in-3 shot at the upset.

Gold Coast’s away form is elite, while Richmond’s home stats raise a few red flags.

Richmond (Home)

Despite a respectable Power Ranking of 10th, the Tigers are underwhelming when we drill into the key metrics:

Home Score Rank: 16th
Average Points For at Home: 16th
Points Conceded at Home: 15th
Home Win % Rank: 12th
Balanced Power Score: 7th

They’re not scoring enough, leaking points, and the home-ground advantage doesn’t seem to be delivering results.

Gold Coast (Away)

On the flip side, the Suns are putting up elite numbers when they travel:

Away Score Rank: 1st
Average Points For (Away): 2nd
Points Conceded (Away): 1st
Away Win % Rank: 1st
Balanced Power Score: 10th
Power Ranking: 12th

Gold Coast is #1 in away scoring, defensive efficiency, and win rate, a rare and dangerous combo.

What to do?

Unless by some miracle a magical pony comes and sprinkles glitter on the Tigers they will not be winning this game, and while the prediction model suggests that Gold Coast will be winning by a margin of 36 points Gold Coast will most likely blow it out even further. The Line is set at 45.5 which does sit in line with Gold Coast Average away score of 123.7.

Steer clear of the H-2-H this round, this game is heading towards a likely high scoring blowout, oddly enough the OVER is the best shot at making a profit this game at 182.5, however if you are planning on betting with Richmond then we strongly suggest only considering the +44.5 line.

Suggested Betting Tip:

OVER 182.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Gold Coast @ $1.07 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Gold Coast 40+ @ $1.60 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Gold Coast -45.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Richmond vs Gold Coast SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Richmond: 68.0, Gold Coast: 122.0 – (Gold Coast by 54 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond: 114.0, Gold Coast: 72.5 – (Gold Coast by 41.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Richmond: 13.0, Gold Coast: 49.5 – (Gold Coast by 36.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Richmond: 60.8, Gold Coast: N/A – (Gold Coast more resilient)
HT/FT Double %: Richmond: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 75.0% – (Gold Coast by 75%)
Highest Score For: Richmond: 90, Gold Coast: 141 – (Gold Coast by 51 points)
Highest Score Against: Richmond: 140, Gold Coast: 90 – (Gold Coast by 50 points)
Biggest Win: Richmond: 13, Gold Coast: 87 – (Gold Coast by 74 points)
Biggest Loss: Richmond: 82, Gold Coast: N/A – (Gold Coast more resilient)
Highest Total Match Score: Richmond: 208, Gold Coast: 230 – (Gold Coast by 22 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Richmond: 151, Gold Coast: 181 – (Gold Coast by 30 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Richmond: 58.3%, Gold Coast: 60.5% – (Gold Coast by 2.2%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Richmond: 60.9%, Gold Coast: 57.5% – (Gold Coast by 3.4%)
Current Streak: Richmond: L4, Gold Coast: W4 – (Gold Coast momentum)
Current Form: Richmond: WLLLL, Gold Coast: WWWW – (Gold Coast edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Gold Coast by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Richmond: 20.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Gold Coast by 80%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Gold Coast won by 28 points (94-66) on 24th August 2024