Richmond vs Fremantle Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers Predictions

Game 7 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Richmond vs Fremantle on April 13 at Barossa Park on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 13, 2025

12:35 pm AEDT @ Barossa Park, Lyndoch

Final Score Prediction

Tigers

70 : 112

Dockers

Win Percentages

Richmond 33.5%

Fremantle 66.5%

Richmond

Fremantle

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Richmond Tigers set at $5.40, and $1.15 for the Fremantle Dockers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Tigers 17.56%
Dockers 82.44%

Opportunity Bet

Fremantle are clear favourites here, and fair enough. But the bookies have gone pretty hard, giving them an 82.44% chance of winning based on their $1.15 odds. Our numbers aren’t quite that bullish though, we’ve got Freo at a solid but more grounded 66.5%.

Now let’s talk Tigers. The bookies reckon they’ve only got a 17.56% shot, but our analysis puts them at 33.5%. That’s nearly double the chance the market’s giving them, and at $5.40, that’s a *big* edge. It’s a long shot, sure, but definitely some sneaky value there for the brave punter.

In Summary

Freo should win, but the market’s way too confident in them. Richmond’s chances are being seriously underrated, and if our numbers are on the money, that $5.40 price is juicy value. If you’re up for a bold play, the Tigers are absolutely worth a cheeky look here. If you are looking for a Richmond win, go the 1-39 for more value @ $6.00.

What to do?

Coming into this game Fremantle has had a notably easier run into this game with an average opposition ladder ranking of 12.25 while Richmond has come in with an opposition ranking of 10.75, meaning Richmond have been playing teams 1.5 rungs higher on the ladder.

Unfortunately this doesn’t sway the analysis and we still foresee a Fremantle win, especially considering both teams have no fair home ground advantage.

Last year the Dockers were a powerhouse against the Tigers winning by an average of 52.5 points and we see the same pattern happening this week so don’t expect Richmond to win the line.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Brisbane -47.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Fremantle (NO VALUE) @ $1.14 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Fremantle -35.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Richmond vs Fremantle SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Richmond: 73.3, Fremantle: 84.3 – (Fremantle by 11 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond: 115.5, Fremantle: 91.0 – (Fremantle by 24.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Richmond: 13.0, Fremantle: 27.0 – (Fremantle by 14 points)
Average Losing Margin: Richmond: 60.7, Fremantle: 40.5 – (Fremantle more resilient by 20.2 points)
HT/FT Double %: Richmond: 0.0%, Fremantle: 50.0% – (Fremantle by 50%)
Highest Score For: Richmond: 90, Fremantle: 106 – (Fremantle by 16 points)
Highest Score Against: Richmond: 140, Fremantle: 147 – (Richmond by 7 points)
Biggest Win: Richmond: 13, Fremantle: 38 – (Fremantle by 25 points)
Biggest Loss: Richmond: 82, Fremantle: 78 – (Fremantle more resilient by 4 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Richmond: 208, Fremantle: 216 – (Fremantle by 8 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Richmond: 151, Fremantle: 133 – (Fremantle by 18 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Richmond: 57.5%, Fremantle: 59.8% – (Fremantle by 2.3%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Richmond: 60.2%, Fremantle: 64.3% – (Richmond by 4.1%)
Current Streak: Richmond: L3, Fremantle: W2 – (Fremantle momentum)
Current Form: Richmond: WLLL, Fremantle: LLWW – (Fremantle edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Fremantle: 33.3% – (Richmond by 33.3%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Fremantle: 66.7% – (Fremantle by 66.7%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Richmond: 25.0%, Fremantle: 0.0% – (Richmond by 25%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Fremantle won by 51 points (105-54) on 6th July 2024
Previous Encounter: Fremantle won by 54 points (103-49) on 5th May 2024