Richmond vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions Predictions

Game 4 of Round 4 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Richmond vs Brisbane on April 5 at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 5, 2025

4:15 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Tigers

62 : 112

Lions

Win Percentages

Richmond 31.8%

Brisbane 68.2%

Richmond

Brisbane

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Richmond Tigers set at $9.25, and $1.05 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Tigers 9.81%
Lions 89.81%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have absolutely slammed the door shut on Richmond, giving them just a 9.81% chance of winning. But our numbers suggest they’re more than triple that, sitting at 31.8%. That’s a huge discrepancy.

Richmond are paying a whopping $9.25, but based on our analysis, their true odds should be closer to $3.14. That’s massive value for anyone keen to take a swing on the underdog. Sure, it’s a risky play, but the potential reward is big.

In summary: This one’s a long shot, but Richmond offer a massive betting edge at $9.25. If our numbers are right, there’s a serious opportunity here with the bookies undervaluing them. High risk? Yep. But if you like chasing value, the Tigers are well worth a cheeky flutter (though we don’t recommend it).

What to do?

Brisbane on the head is a waste of time unless you’re planning on popping $1,000 on them, A win by 40+ is also only coming in at 1.53 which isn’t exactly decent value either, While sitting pretty in third they do want the top position so don’t expect them to slouch this week, last two games have been won by over 100 points so the Lions -47.5 is the best way to go in this game.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Brisbane -47.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Brisbane (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.05 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Brisbane 40+ @ $1.53 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 176.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Richmond vs Brisbane SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Richmond: 67.7, Brisbane: 83.3 – (Brisbane by 15.6 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond: 114.7, Brisbane: 72.7 – (Brisbane by 42.0 points)
Average Winning Margin: Richmond: 13.0, Brisbane: 10.7 – (Richmond by 2.3 points)
Average Losing Margin: Richmond: 77.0, Brisbane: N/A – (Brisbane by 77.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Richmond: 0.0%, Brisbane: 0.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Richmond: 82, Brisbane: 94 – (Brisbane by 12 points)
Highest Score Against: Richmond: 140, Brisbane: 82 – (Brisbane more resilient by 58 points)
Biggest Win: Richmond: 13, Brisbane: 19 – (Brisbane by 6 points)
Biggest Loss: Richmond: 82, Brisbane: N/A – (Brisbane by 82 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Richmond: 208, Brisbane: 169 – (Richmond by 39 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Richmond: 151, Brisbane: 131 – (Brisbane by 20 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Richmond: 55.8%, Brisbane: 55.4% – (Richmond by 0.4%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Richmond: 56.8%, Brisbane: 61.5% – (Richmond by 4.7%)
Current Streak: Richmond: L2, Brisbane: W3 – (Brisbane momentum)
Current Form: Richmond: WLL, Brisbane: WWW – (Brisbane dominance)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Brisbane: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Brisbane: 0.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Richmond: 33.3%, Brisbane: 100.0% – (Brisbane by 66.7%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 18 May 2024 (R10): Brisbane 163 def. Richmond 44
- 29 Jun 2023 (R16): Brisbane 134 def. Richmond 53
- 1 Sep 2022 (Finals W1): Brisbane 106 def. Richmond 104
- 31 Jul 2022 (R20): Richmond 104 def. Brisbane 97
- 16 Jul 2021 (R18): Richmond 106 def. Brisbane 86