Port Adelaide vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Analysis

Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers Predictions

The 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Tips and Predictions for Round 2 has Port Adelaide vs Richmond kicking off right around the time you’ll be looking to start the BBQ. You can catch the game live on Kayo & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Port Adelaide vs Richmond

Saturday, March 22, 2025

4:15 pm @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Power

109 : 62

Tigers

Win Percentages

Port Adelaide 60.4%

Richmond 39.6%

Port Adelaide

Richmond

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Port Adelaide Power set at $1.11, and $6.40 for the Richmond Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Power 85.22%
Tigers 14.78%

Review

Richmond riding high after a stunning comeback win, and Port Adelaide looking to pick up the pieces after a horror start.

The Tigers produced a miracle in Round 1, erasing a 41-point deficit to shock Carlton 82-69 at the MCG. Jack Ross starred with 28 disposals, 591 metres gained, and 2 goals in what may have been the best game of his career.

Meanwhile, Port Adelaide suffered its worst loss since 2011, getting obliterated 136-45 by Collingwood. Their goal accuracy was a dismal 42.9%.

Despite their Round 1 struggles, Port enters as the favourite—they’ve won four straight against Richmond, including a 116-75 win at Adelaide Oval last year. However, the stats favour Richmond: they lead in scoring (82 to 45), points conceded (69 to 136), and goal accuracy (86.7% to 42.9%).

Opportunity Bet

🚨 Massive Discrepancy Alert! 🚨

The bookies heavily favour Port Adelaide, giving them an 85.22% chance, while our analysis suggests they are only 60.4% likely to win.
This means Richmond is hugely undervalued—the bookies give them only a 14.78% chance, while our numbers suggest they should be closer to 39.6%.
At $6.40, Richmond presents a huge potential value play. If our analysis holds, their fair odds should be around $2.53, making this an enormous betting edge.

Final Take

📌 Richmond at $6.40 is a massive value bet—the bookies may have completely mispriced them after seeing how they played against the Blues last week.
📌 Port Adelaide’s odds are way too short based on our analysis, meaning they offer no value at $1.11.
📌 This is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation—if our numbers are right, backing Richmond in this Port Adelaide vs Richmond game could be a huge winning play!

Suggested Betting Tip:

Port Adelaide -38.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Port Adelaide (NO VALUE) @ $1.11 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Carlton -49.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 173.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Port Adelaide vs Richmond SGM

Port Adelaide vs Richmond Head-to-Head Stats (2025 Season)

Average Points For Per Match: Port Adelaide: 45.0, Richmond: 82.0 – (Richmond by 37 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Port Adelaide: 136.0, Richmond: 69.0 – (Richmond by 67 points)
Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide: N/A, Richmond: 13.0
Average Losing Margin: Port Adelaide: 91.0, Richmond: N/A
HT/FT Double %: Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Port Adelaide: 45, Richmond: 82 – (Richmond by 37 points)
Highest Score Against: Port Adelaide: 136, Richmond: 69 – (Port Adelaide by 67 points)
Biggest Win: Port Adelaide: N/A, Richmond: 13
Biggest Loss: Port Adelaide: 91, Richmond: N/A
Highest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 181, Richmond: 151 – (Port Adelaide by 30 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 181, Richmond: 151 – (Port Adelaide by 30 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Port Adelaide: 42.9%, Richmond: 86.7% – (Richmond by 43.8%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Port Adelaide: 70.0%, Richmond: 42.9% – (Richmond by 27.1%)
Current Streak: Port Adelaide: L1, Richmond: W1 – (Richmond streak 1)
Current Form: Port Adelaide: L, Richmond: W – (Richmond by 1 win)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 100.0% – (Richmond by 100%)