North Melbourne vs Sydney Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans Predictions

Game 5 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees North Melbourne vs Sydney on April 5 at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 5, 2025

7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Kangaroos

83 : 92

Swans

Statistical Win Percentages

North Melbourne 54.4%

Sydney 45.6%

Kangaroos

Sydney

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for North Melbourne Kangaroos set at $2.50, and $1.52 for the Sydney Swans, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Kangaroos 37.81%
Swans 62.19%

Opportunity Bet

According to the bookies, the Roos are outsiders, but our model flips the script, giving North the edge at 54.4%. That’s a huge difference from the 37.81% chance implied by their current odds of $2.50.

If our read is right, the true odds for the Kangaroos should be closer to $1.84, meaning there’s strong value backing them at the $2.50 mark. It’s one of those spots where the numbers and the market just don’t line up.

In summary: North Melbourne have the potential (on paper) to be seriously undervalued here. At $2.50, there’s a great betting edge, with our model showing them as rightful favourites. This is the kind of opportunity that can really pay off over, however the Swans have played far more formidable opponents than the Roos which has resulted in the statistics swaying early (and slightly misguided) in North Melbourne’s favour.

What to do?

While the stats point towards North taking the win, the reality is that Sydney are the superior team this week, typically games earlier in the season between these two tend to maintain a point difference of less than 1-39 so a Sydney 1-39 winning margin is a sound bet.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Sydney 1-39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Sydney @ $1.52 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

North Melbourne +11.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 174.5 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

North Melbourne vs Sydney SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne: 100.0, Sydney: 75.3 – (North Melbourne by 24.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: North Melbourne: 97.7, Sydney: 82.3 – (Sydney by 15.4 points)
Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne: 59.0, Sydney: 3.0 – (North Melbourne by 56.0 points)
Average Losing Margin: North Melbourne: 26.0, Sydney: 12.0 – (Sydney by 14.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: North Melbourne: 33.3%, Sydney: 0.0% – (North Melbourne by 33.3%)
Highest Score For: North Melbourne: 125, Sydney: 82 – (North Melbourne by 43 points)
Highest Score Against: North Melbourne: 114, Sydney: 96 – (Sydney more resilient by 18 points)
Biggest Win: North Melbourne: 59, Sydney: 3 – (North Melbourne by 56 points)
Biggest Loss: North Melbourne: 36, Sydney: 20 – (Sydney more resilient by 16 points)
Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 210, Sydney: 172 – (North Melbourne by 38 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 191, Sydney: 133 – (North Melbourne by 58 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: North Melbourne: 67.2%, Sydney: 56.1% – (North Melbourne by 11.1%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: North Melbourne: 58.9%, Sydney: 53.0% – (Sydney by 5.9%)
Current Streak: North Melbourne: L1, Sydney: W1 – (Even)
Current Form: North Melbourne: LWL, Sydney: LLW – (Even)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Sydney: 100.0% – (North Melbourne by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): North Melbourne: 100.0%, Sydney: 0.0% – (North Melbourne by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Sydney by 50%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 13 Jul 2024 (R18): Sydney 138 def. North Melbourne 59
- 20 May 2023 (R10): Sydney 93 def. North Melbourne 90
- 7 Aug 2022 (R21): Sydney 126 def. North Melbourne 88
- 9 Apr 2022 (R4): Sydney 86 def. North Melbourne 75
- 14 Aug 2021 (R22): Sydney 91 def. North Melbourne 77