Melbourne vs Fremantle Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers Predictions

Game 4 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Melbourne vs Fremantle on April 19 at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 19, 2025

1:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Melbourne

57 : 81

Fremantle

Win Percentages

Melbourne 33.27%

Fremantle 66.73%

Melbourne

Fremantle

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Melbourne Demons set at $3.00, and $1.38 for the Fremantle Dockers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Demons 31.51%
Dockers 68.49%

Opportunity Bet

On the surface, this looks like a pretty straightforward one for the Dockers, and the bookies agree. But our model reckons Fremantle are slightly less likely to win than the odds suggest, though this should be insignificant overall.

The bookies are pricing the Dockers as strong favourites, and fair enough, but our model gives them a win probability of 66.73%, slightly below the market’s 68.49%. That means there’s actually a very slight overvaluation on Fremantle at $1.38.

But the big takeaway here? Melbourne’s being given a 33.27% chance in our model, while the market only gives them 31.51%. That’s a tiny value play, not enough to scream upset, but enough for anyone looking for small, data-driven longshots.

This clash is all about home vs away performance, and on paper, Fremantle holds the edge.

Let’s break it down:

Melbourne (Home)

The Demons are struggling to make their home turf count:

Power Ranking: 14th
Score Rank (Home): 17th
Balanced Power Score: 18th
Average Points For (Home): 17th
Points Conceded (Home): 14th
Home Win % Rank: 16th

Those numbers paint a clear picture, Melbourne is underperforming badly at the ‘G this year. They’re not scoring, not defending well, and not getting results.

Fremantle (Away)

Fremantle has been one of the best travelling teams in the comp:

Power Ranking: 4th
Score Rank (Away): 7th
Balanced Power Score: 6th
Average Points For (Away): 4th
Points Conceded (Away): 9th
Away Win % Rank: 3rd

Freo’s ability to perform away from home is elite. They’re scoring freely, defending well, and turning performances into wins.

Based on the rankings alone, Fremantle is a clear statistical standout. Melbourne’s form at home is a serious concern, and unless something clicks, they’ll likely struggle to contain a Fremantle side that travels well and plays with confidence.

What to do?

Fremantle winning margin of 1-39 is the best value play this game, tipped to win by 29 points the +16.5 line is also a good option. the Average points for Melbourne at home plus Fremantle away totals to 158 points so sticking under the 168.5 is also a solid bet if you’re looking to pop all these into a multi or as stand alones. Best to steer clear of the H-2-H though unless you want to go for the roughie.

The market is pretty tight, and there’s no glaring opportunity. But if you’re picking a side, Fremantle still come out as the more trustworthy bet based on both price and prediction.

Fremantle are rightly favourites here, and our model backs that up. There’s no huge edge either way, but if you’re chasing consistency, the Dockers are the safer bet.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.10 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Fremantle @ $1.38 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Fremantle +16.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 168.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Melbourne vs Fremantle SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Melbourne: 61.0, Fremantle: 89.0 – (Fremantle by 28 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Melbourne: 100.6, Fremantle: 82.2 – (Fremantle by 18.4 points)
Average Winning Margin: Melbourne: N/A, Fremantle: 38.3 – (Fremantle edge)
Average Losing Margin: Melbourne: 39.6, Fremantle: 40.5 – (Melbourne by 0.9 points)
HT/FT Double %: Melbourne: 0.0%, Fremantle: 60.0% – (Fremantle by 60%)
Highest Score For: Melbourne: 74, Fremantle: 108 – (Fremantle by 34 points)
Highest Score Against: Melbourne: 125, Fremantle: 147 – (Melbourne by 22 points)
Biggest Win: Melbourne: N/A, Fremantle: 61 – (Fremantle edge)
Biggest Loss: Melbourne: 59, Fremantle: 78 – (Melbourne more resilient by 19 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Melbourne: 191, Fremantle: 216 – (Fremantle by 25 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Melbourne: 131, Fremantle: 133 – (Fremantle by 2 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Melbourne: 48.3%, Fremantle: 60.7% – (Fremantle by 12.4%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Melbourne: 64.7%, Fremantle: 64.2% – (Fremantle by 0.5%)
Current Streak: Melbourne: L5, Fremantle: W3 – (Fremantle momentum)
Current Form: Melbourne: LLLLL, Fremantle: LLWWW – (Fremantle edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Fremantle: 25.0% – (Melbourne by 25%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Fremantle: 75.0% – (Fremantle by 75%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Fremantle: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Fremantle won by 50 points (116-66) on 21st July 2024