Gold Coast vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows Predictions

Game 3 of Round 4 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Gold Coast vs Adelaide on April 5 at People First Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 5, 2025

1:20 pm AEDT @ People First Stadium, Gold Coast

Final Score Prediction

Suns

114 : 94

Crows

Win Percentages

Gold Coast 57.2%

Adelaide 42.8%

Gold Coast

Adelaide

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Gold Coast Suns set at $1.77, and $2.05 for the Adelaide Crows, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Suns 53.65%
Crows 46.35%

Opportunity Bet

According to our numbers, the Suns have a stronger shot than the bookies are giving them credit for, 57.2% vs the implied 53.65%. That suggests their current odds of $1.77 actually offer a little bit of value.

On the flip side, Adelaide’s sitting at $2.05, but our model gives them just a 42.8% chance, which lines up pretty closely with the market’s 46.35%. Not much of an edge there.

In summary: There’s a small but tidy betting edge on Gold Coast at $1.77. If our analysis is on the money, the Suns are a slightly undervalued favourite and worth a look, especially if you’re eyeing up a solid single or adding them to a value multi.

What to do?

This is setting up to be an interesting match, both the Suns and the Crows have been dominating the start of this season, and the gold boys have only played two of the four rounds this season (including OR) they have impressively shot themselves up to fourth place on the ladder.

At home the Gold Coast Suns should win this week, and while Adelaide are currently second on the ladder they are allowing almost 30 points more through the posts per game than the Suns…. and that is a big issue they need to rectify.

These two like to keep it tight, we think the Suns will take this one by around 20 points, the 1-39 winning margin is a solid betting strategy.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Gold Coast 1-39 @ $2.35 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Gold Coast @ $1.77 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Gold Coast -3.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 181.5 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Gold Coast vs Adelaide SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Gold Coast: 128.0, Adelaide: 136.7 – (Adelaide by 8.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Gold Coast: 55.5, Adelaide: 83.3 – (Gold Coast by 27.8 points)
Average Winning Margin: Gold Coast: 72.5, Adelaide: 53.3 – (Gold Coast by 19.2 points)
Average Losing Margin: Gold Coast: N/A, Adelaide: N/A – (Even)
HT/FT Double %: Gold Coast: 100.0%, Adelaide: 100.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Gold Coast: 136, Adelaide: 161 – (Adelaide by 25 points)
Highest Score Against: Gold Coast: 62, Adelaide: 100 – (Gold Coast more resilient by 38 points)
Biggest Win: Gold Coast: 87, Adelaide: 63 – (Gold Coast by 24 points)
Biggest Loss: Gold Coast: N/A, Adelaide: N/A – (Even)
Highest Total Match Score: Gold Coast: 185, Adelaide: 261 – (Adelaide by 76 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Gold Coast: 182, Adelaide: 192 – (Gold Coast by 10 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Gold Coast: 63.3%, Adelaide: 70.0% – (Adelaide by 6.7%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Gold Coast: 48.4%, Adelaide: 61.7% – (Gold Coast by 13.3%)
Current Streak: Gold Coast: W2, Adelaide: W3 – (Adelaide momentum)
Current Form: Gold Coast: WW, Adelaide: WWW – (Adelaide edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Gold Coast: 0.0%, Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Gold Coast: 100.0%, Adelaide: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Gold Coast: 0.0%, Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 16 Mar 2024 (R1): Gold Coast 60 def. Adelaide 54
- 5 Aug 2023 (R21): Adelaide 89 def. Gold Coast 61
- 3 Jun 2023 (R12): Gold Coast 112 def. Adelaide 87
- 19 Jun 2022 (R14): Gold Coast 116 def. Adelaide 73
- 2 Apr 2021 (R3): Adelaide 95 def. Gold Coast 85