Geelong vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons Predictions

Game 2 of Round 4 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Geelong vs Melbourne on April 4 at GMHBA Stadium on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 4, 2025

7:40 pm AEDT @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Final Score Prediction

Cats

114 : 63

Demons

Win Percentages

Geelong 75.6%

Melbourne 24.4%

Geelong

Melbourne

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Geelong Cats set at $1.20, and $4.25 for the Melbourne Demons, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Cats 77.99%
Demons 22.01%

Opportunity Bet

This market is pretty tight, the bookies have Geelong at 77.99%, while we’ve got them slightly lower at 75.6%. Melbourne are at 24.4% on our end, compared to the market’s 22.01%.

That means the odds are pretty spot on, Geelong at $1.20 is fair, and while Melbourne’s $4.25 price looks tempting, our numbers don’t suggest there’s any hidden value in backing the Dees here.

In summary: This one’s well-priced by the bookies. Geelong are deserved favourites, and while their odds aren’t screaming value, they’re still the smart pick. Might be a good leg for a multi, but there’s no clear edge either way in the head-to-head.

What to do?

Adelaide on the nose is the best move this game, though a 40+ winning margin is tempting, the past few games these two teams have played at Adelaide Oval have left the margin quite close, the line is too big, and with two teams that both have the ability of blitxing the other at a moments notice, it’s just not worth the gamble.

pop your tip on the nose, go the OVER or sit this one out.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Geelong 40+ @ $2.45 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Geelong @ $1.20 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Geelong -27.5 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 173.5 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Geelong vs Melbourne SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Geelong: 99.7, Melbourne: 67.3 – (Geelong by 32.4 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Geelong: 79.0, Melbourne: 107.3 – (Geelong by 28.3 points)
Average Winning Margin: Geelong: 78.0, Melbourne: N/A – (Geelong by 78.0 points)
Average Losing Margin: Geelong: 8.0, Melbourne: 40.0 – (Geelong by 32.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Geelong: 33.3%, Melbourne: 0.0% – (Geelong by 33.3%)
Highest Score For: Geelong: 147, Melbourne: 74 – (Geelong by 73 points)
Highest Score Against: Geelong: 98, Melbourne: 125 – (Geelong more resilient by 27 points)
Biggest Win: Geelong: 78, Melbourne: N/A – (Geelong by 78 points)
Biggest Loss: Geelong: 9, Melbourne: 59 – (Geelong more resilient by 50 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Geelong: 216, Melbourne: 191 – (Geelong by 25 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Geelong: 131, Melbourne: 151 – (Melbourne by 20 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Geelong: 67.2%, Melbourne: 50.0% – (Geelong by 17.2%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Geelong: 66.0%, Melbourne: 63.2% – (Melbourne by 2.8%)
Current Streak: Geelong: L2, Melbourne: L3 – (Geelong edge)
Current Form: Geelong: WLL, Melbourne: LLL – (Geelong edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Geelong: 50.0%, Melbourne: 0.0% – (Melbourne by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Geelong: 50.0%, Melbourne: 0.0% – (Geelong by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Geelong: 0.0%, Melbourne: 0.0% – (Even)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 4 May 2024 (R8): Melbourne 74 def. Geelong 66
- 22 Jun 2023 (R15): Geelong 78 def. Melbourne 63
- 7 Jul 2022 (R17): Geelong 91 def. Melbourne 63
- 10 Sep 2021 (Prelim Final): Melbourne 125 def. Geelong 42
- 21 Aug 2021 (R23): Melbourne 81 def. Geelong 77