Essendon vs Port Adelaide Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 3

Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power Predictions

Game 1 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Round 3 week begins on March 27, with the Essendon vs Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & 7. 🏉🔥

Thursday, March 27, 2025

7:30 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Bombers

96 : 111

Power

Win Percentages

Essendon 49.6%

Port Adelaide 50.4%

Essendon

Port Adelaide

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Essendon Bombers set at $2.25, and $1.64 for Port Adelaide Power, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bombers 42.14%
Power 57.86%

Opportunity Bet

So here’s the edge, the bookies are leaning a bit too heavily towards Port Adelaide, while we’ve got this almost dead even. That makes the Bombers quite a tasty value play at $2.25.

If our numbers are spot on, Essendon’s true odds should be much closer to $2.02, meaning the current market price is offering up solid value for punters backing the red and black.

What to do?

The edge lies with the Bombers. While the market underrates them at 42.14%, our model sees them just shy of a 50/50 chance at home, making that $2.25 price tag a value opportunity not to be looked away from, their last two games have both been well under the 175.5 total score set by the bookies, and while we do see the Power taking this one home, we don’t see them winning by 40+ points so the 1-39 winning margin is a smart bet.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Port Adelaide @ $1.64 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Port -7.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Essendon vs Port Adelaide SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Essendon: 92.5, Port Adelaide: 92.5 – (Even)
Average Points Against Per Match: Essendon: 136.0, Port Adelaide: 102.0 – (Port Adelaide by 34 points)
Average Winning Margin: Essendon: N/A, Port Adelaide: 72.0 – (Port dominant)
Average Losing Margin: Essendon: 43.5, Port Adelaide: 91.0 – (Essendon more competitive by 47.5 points)
HT/FT Double %: Essendon: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: 50.0% – (Port Adelaide by 50%)
Highest Score For: Essendon: 100, Port Adelaide: 140 – (Port by 40 points)
Highest Score Against: Essendon: 161, Port Adelaide: 136 – (Port better by 25 points)
Biggest Win: Essendon: N/A, Port Adelaide: 72 – (Port dominant)
Biggest Loss: Essendon: 61, Port Adelaide: 91 – (Essendon more resilient by 30 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Essendon: 261, Port Adelaide: 208 – (Essendon by 53 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon: 196, Port Adelaide: 181 – (Port lower by 15 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Essendon: 57.4%, Port Adelaide: 57.4% – (Even)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Essendon: 70.0%, Port Adelaide: 60.0% – (Port by 10%)
Current Streak: Essendon: L2, Port Adelaide: W1 – (Port momentum)
Current Form: Essendon: LL, Port Adelaide: LW – (Port edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: 100.0% – (Port by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Port Adelaide won by 69 points (111–42) on 5th April 2024