Essendon vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Analysis

Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows Predictions

The first Saturday game of Round 2 has Essendon vs Adelaide at the MCG. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Nine, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Essendon vs Adelaide

Saturday, March 22, 2025

1:20 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Bombers

96 : 101

Crows

Win Percentages

Essendon 41.5%

Adelaide 58.5%

Essendon

Adelaide

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Essendon Bombers set at $2.20, and $1.67 for the Adelaide Crows, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bombers 43.16%
Crows 56.84%

Review

The Bombers went down to Hawthorn in their season opener, despite leading nearly every major stat—+35 disposals, +24 contested possessions, +19 clearances—but couldn’t convert dominance into a win. To make matters worse, they lost two key players: Jordan Ridley (concussion) and Kyle Langford (hamstring).

Adelaide, on the other hand, couldn’t have asked for a better start. They smashed St Kilda 135-72, with Izak Rankine putting on a clinic—28 disposals, 16 contested, 7 clearances and 2 goals. He missed their game against Essendon last year, but the Crows still edged that one 115-113 thanks to Josh Rachele’s late heroics.

The stats favour the Crows: they lead in average points for (135 to 85), points against (72 to 111), and goal accuracy (72.4% to 52.2%). But Essendon will be fired up, and they’ve had recent successes against Adelaide while playing in Melbourne.

Opportunity Bet

Unlike other matchups, the bookmakers’ implied probabilities are very close to our own analysis.

The Bombers are slightly overvalued by the bookies (43.16% vs. 41.5%).
The Crows are slightly undervalued, with their implied probability at 56.84%, while our numbers suggest they should be at 58.5%.

This means there’s no major betting edge on either side, as the odds are fairly in line with our predictions.

Final Take

📌 No strong value play here—the bookies have priced this one pretty accurately.
📌 If anything, Adelaide at $1.67 might have a slight edge, but not enough to make it a standout value bet.

For this Essendon vs Adelaide matchup, it’s probably best to look at alternative markets like line betting or player props!

Suggested Betting Tip:

Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Adelaide (NO VALUE) @ $1.04 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Essendon +6.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 173.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Essendon vs Adelaide SGM

Essendon vs Adelaide Head-to-Head Stats (2025 Season)

Average Points For Per Match: Essendon: 85.0, Adelaide: 135.0 – (Adelaide by 50 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Essendon: 111.0, Adelaide: 72.0 – (Adelaide by 39 points)
Average Winning Margin: Essendon: N/A, Adelaide: 63.0
Average Losing Margin: Essendon: 26.0, Adelaide: N/A
HT/FT Double %: Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 100.0% – (Adelaide by 100%)
Highest Score For: Essendon: 85, Adelaide: 135 – (Adelaide by 50 points)
Highest Score Against: Essendon: 111, Adelaide: 72 – (Essendon by 39 points)
Biggest Win: Essendon: N/A, Adelaide: 63
Biggest Loss: Essendon: 26, Adelaide: N/A
Highest Total Match Score: Essendon: 196, Adelaide: 207 – (Adelaide by 11 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon: 196, Adelaide: 207 – (Adelaide by 11 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Essendon: 52.2%, Adelaide: 72.4% – (Adelaide by 20.2%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Essendon: 68.0%, Adelaide: 50.0% – (Adelaide by 18%)
Current Streak: Essendon: L1, Adelaide: W1 – (Adelaide streak 1)
Current Form: Essendon: L, Adelaide: W – (Adelaide by 1 win)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 100.0% – (Adelaide by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)