Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Analysis

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

The 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Tips and Predictions for Round 2 begins on March 20, with Carlton vs Hawthorn at the MCG on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Carlton vs Hawthorn

Thursday, March 20, 2025

7:30 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Blues

70 : 98

Hawks

Win Percentages

Carlton 40%

Hawthorn 60%

Carlton

Hawthorn

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Carlton Blues set at $2.80, and $1.44 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Blues 33.96%
Hawks 66.04%

Carlton will be looking for redemption when they take on a red-hot Hawthorn side at the MCG this Thursday night. The Blues are coming off a frustrating 82-69 loss to Richmond, a game where they led by 41 points midway through the second quarter but couldn’t hold on. Despite dominating key stats like disposals (+53), inside 50s (+25), and contested possessions (+21), they couldn’t convert their control into a win. On the other hand, Hawthorn kicked off their season with a strong 111-85 victory over Essendon, despite trailing in disposals (-35), clearances (-19), and contested possessions (-24).

The Hawks have been dominant at the MCG, winning seven straight games, including a crushing 112-38 victory over Carlton last season. In that match, Dylan Moore was outstanding with 29 disposals, 578 metres gained, 15 marks, and 11 score involvements. Heading into this game, the odds favour Hawthorn ($1.44 vs. $2.80 for Carlton), giving them a 60% win probability compared to the Blues’ 40%.

Opportunity Bet

The bookmakers are undervaluing Carlton by pricing them at a 33.96% probability, whereas our analysis suggests they actually have a 40% chance.

This discrepancy creates a potential betting edge on Carlton. If our analysis holds, Carlton’s fair odds should be around $2.50, but the bookies are offering $2.80—meaning there could be some value in backing Carlton at those odds.

On the other hand, Hawthorn is slightly overvalued by the bookmakers, with their implied probability set at 66.04%, while our numbers suggest they should be closer to 60%.

Final Take

📌 Carlton presents a potential value bet at $2.80, as the bookmakers may be underestimating their actual chances.
📌 Hawthorn is slightly overpriced, meaning the odds may not offer much value.

If you’re looking for a sharp play for Carlton vs Hawthorn, backing Carlton at $2.80 could be profitable.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.10 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Hawthorn (NO VALUE) @ $1.44 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Hawthorn -15.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 167.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Carlton vs Hawthorn SGM

Carlton vs Hawthorn Head-to-Head Stats (2025 Season)

Average Points For Per Match: Carlton: 69.0, Hawthorn: 103.5 – (Hawthorn by 34.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton: 82.0, Hawthorn: 80.5 – (Hawthorn by 1.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Carlton: N/A, Hawthorn: 23.0
Average Losing Margin: Carlton: 13.0, Hawthorn: N/A
HT/FT Double %: Carlton: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
Highest Score For: Carlton: 69, Hawthorn: 111 – (Hawthorn by 42 points)
Highest Score Against: Carlton: 82, Hawthorn: 85 – (Hawthorn by 3 points)
Biggest Win: Carlton: N/A, Hawthorn: 26
Biggest Loss: Carlton: 13, Hawthorn: N/A
Highest Total Match Score: Carlton: 151, Hawthorn: 196 – (Hawthorn by 45 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton: 151, Hawthorn: 172 – (Hawthorn by 21 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Carlton: 42.9%, Hawthorn: 66.0% – (Hawthorn by 23.1%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Carlton: 86.7%, Hawthorn: 56.1% – (Hawthorn by 30.6%)
Current Streak: Carlton: L1, Hawthorn: W2 – (Hawthorn streak 2)
Current Form: Carlton: L, Hawthorn: WW – (Hawthorn by 2 wins)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Carlton: 100.0%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Carlton: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Carlton: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Even)