Best AFL Betting Sites
Find the BEST AFL BOOKIE for you!

Carlton vs Geelong Prediction

Ben H 23 April 2025 Last Updated: 24/04/25

Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Predictions

Game 8 of Round 7 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Carlton vs Geelong on April 27 at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.  You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Carlton vs Geelong

Sunday, April 27, 2025

3:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Carlton Blues Blues

87 : 90

Cats Geelong Cats

Win Percentages

Carlton 43.94%
Geelong 56.06%

 

Carlton
Geelong

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Carlton Blues set at $2.55, and $1.52 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Blues

37.35%
Cats

62.65%

 

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have the Cats fairly short at $1.52, giving them a 62.65% chance of winning. But our model doesn’t see it quite that one-sided, we’ve got Geelong slightly ahead at 56.06%.

That opens the door for value on the Blues. The market’s only giving Carlton a 37.35% shot, but our numbers say they’ve got closer to a 44% chance of getting the job done.

That means Carlton should be priced around $2.28, but they’re sitting at $2.55 with Unibet, not huge, but definitely a worthwhile value play if you’re eyeing the underdog.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

  • Overall Power Ranking: Carlton 3rd vs Geelong 5th
  • Score Rank: Carlton 1st (home) vs Geelong 17th (away)
  • Balanced Power Score: Carlton 8th vs Geelong 11th
  • Points For Rank: Carlton 11th vs Geelong 5th
  • Points Against Rank: Carlton 4th vs Geelong 9th
  • Win % Rank: Carlton 14th vs Geelong 11th
  • Total Power Rank Score: Blues 6.83 vs Cats 9.67

What to do?

Carlton actually come out ahead in the overall power score, and they’ve been elite at home when it comes to scoring. Geelong have been solid, but their away form raises some question marks.

The Cats deserve to be favourites, but not by the margin the odds suggest. Carlton are in with a real shout, and at $2.55, there’s definite value if you’re backing them to fire at home.

Take the Carlton +11.5 line.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Carlton +11.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet

H-2-H Bet:

Geelong @ $1.52 with
Unibet

Winning Margin Bet:

Geelong 1-39 @ $2.08 with
Unibet

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 172.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet

 Carlton vs Geelong SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

  • Average Points For Per Match: Geelong by 10.8
  • Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton by 5.5
  • Power Rank: Geelong by 3
  • Average Winning Margin: Geelong by 40.75
  • SoS Adjusted Points For: Geelong by 11
  • Win Percentage: Geelong by 33%
  • Average Opponent Rank: Geelong by 3
  • Average Opponent Win Percentage: Geelong by 19%
  • Average Opponent Points For: Carlton by 6
  • Highest Score For: Carlton by 6
  • Highest Score Against: Carlton by 17
  • Highest Total Match Score: Carlton by 5
  • Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton by 22
  • Adjusted Points For: Geelong by 11
  • Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 10
  • True Power Score (Weighted): Geelong by 3.4
  • OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162.9
  • Game Style Prediction: Shootout

 


Related:

AFL Fixture

Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.

AFL Injury List

Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.

Other Betting Tips

We don’t just do AFL Tips; our team of experts Also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.

All AFL Tips

AFL Footy Tips Round 9

AFL Betting Predictions & Tips Round 9

AFL Tips & Predictions – Round 9 The 2025 Toyota […]
AFL Footy Tips Round 8

AFL Betting Predictions & Tips Round 8

AFL Tips & Predictions – Round 8 The 2025 Toyota […]
AFL Footy Tips Round 7

AFL Betting Tips Round 7

AFL Tips & Predictions – Round 7 The 2025 Toyota […]
AFL footy tips round 6

AFL Betting Tips Round 6

AFL Tips & Predictions – Round 6 The 2025 Toyota […]
AFL Footy Tips Round 5

AFL Betting Tips Round 5

AFL Tips & Predictions – Round 5 The 2025 Toyota […]
AFL Footy Tips Round 4

AFL Betting Tips Round 4

AFL Tips & Predictions – Round 4 The 2025 Toyota […]
Afl tips Round 3

AFL Betting Tips & Predictions Round 3

2025 AFL Premiership Season – Round 3 Essendon Bombers vs […]
AFL Footy Tips Round 2

AFL Betting Tips Round 2

2025 AFL Premiership Season – Round 2 Carlton Blues vs […]
AFL betting tips and predictions round 1

AFL Betting Tips & Predictions – Round 1

Round 1 AFL Football Tips AFL Football tips for Round […]
AFL Football Tips Round 0

AFL Betting Tips Round OR

Round OR AFL Football Tips AFL Football tips for Round […]
AFL Pre-season Tips

AFL Pre-season Schedule, Tips and Predictions

2025 AFL AAMI Community Series The AFL’s official pre-season competition, […]
AFL Grand Final Predictions

AFL Grand Final Betting Tips

2024 AFL Grand Final Betting Tips The 2024 AFL Grand […]

 

Comments are closed.

Chances are you're about to lose

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au