Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 3

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Predictions

Game 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Round 3 predictions sees Lions vs Geelong on March 29 at the Gabba on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, March 29, 2025

7:35 pm @ Gabba, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Lions

58 : 67

Cats

Win Percentages

Brisbane 49.9%

Geelong 50.1%

Brisbane

Geelong

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Brisbane Lions set at $1.46, and $2.70 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Lions 64.92%
Cats 35.08%

Opportunity Bet

This is a classic case of market misjudgment. While the bookies are backing the Lions pretty heavily, our model sees this as a true 50/50 game, giving Geelong a far better chance than the market does.

If the Cats really have a 50.1% chance of winning, their true odds should be right around $2.00, not the generous $2.70 on offer. That’s a huge edge and a standout value play.

What to do?

The edge is clearly with the Cats. The bookies are undervaluing them big time, and if our numbers are on the money, Geelong at $2.70 is one of the best value bets of the round.

The Lions have always been great at holding the Cats back from kicking too many goals at the Gabba so we should expect a lower score this round.

Keeping it close, the Cats should win this week with a 1-39 margin, line bet is not recommended.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Geelong 1-39 @ $3.10 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Geelong @ $2.75 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Geelong +13.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 154.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Brisbane vs Geelong SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane: 90.0, Geelong: 119.0 – (Geelong by 29 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane: 78.5, Geelong: 83.5 – (Brisbane by 5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Brisbane: 11.5, Geelong: 78.0 – (Geelong by 66.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Brisbane: N/A, Geelong: 7.0 – (Geelong more resilient)
HT/FT Double %: Brisbane: 0.0%, Geelong: 50.0% – (Geelong by 50%)
Highest Score For: Brisbane: 94, Geelong: 147 – (Geelong by 53 points)
Highest Score Against: Brisbane: 82, Geelong: 98 – (Brisbane better by 16 points)
Biggest Win: Brisbane: 19, Geelong: 78 – (Geelong by 59 points)
Biggest Loss: Brisbane: N/A, Geelong: 7 – (Geelong more resilient)
Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane: 169, Geelong: 216 – (Geelong by 47 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane: 168, Geelong: 189 – (Brisbane by 21 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Brisbane: 54.2%, Geelong: 66.7% – (Geelong by 12.5%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Brisbane: 60.5%, Geelong: 69.4% – (Brisbane by 8.9%)
Current Streak: Brisbane: W2, Geelong: L1 – (Brisbane momentum)
Current Form: Brisbane: WW, Geelong: WL – (Brisbane edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Brisbane: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Brisbane: 0.0%, Geelong: 100.0% – (Geelong by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Brisbane: 100.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Brisbane by 100%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Brisbane won by 10 points (95–85) on 21st September 2024