Australian Open Betting Predictions Day 4

2025 Australian Open Tennis Predictions Day Four

Day four of the 2025 Australian Open brings a break from the extreme heat, with temperatures hovering around 23°C and the occasional rain shower adding some unpredictability to the day’s matches. While conditions may be more comfortable for players and fans, they could also lead to delays or slower court speeds. Amid these intriguing dynamics, we’ve identified three matches offering a clear betting edge and value opportunities worth exploring.

Using cutting-edge data analytics and player performance statistics, we’ve simulated countless scenarios to provide the most reliable predictions and insights for the 2025 Australian Open. Whether you’re tracking the form of the favourites or looking for dark horses to watch, our breakdown will help you stay ahead of the game!

Novak Djokovic vs Jaime Faria

Wednesday, January 15, 2025 2:15 AM

Predicted Final Score

Win Percentages

 

The Betting Edge:

• Bookmakers’ odds (98.04% implied for Djokovic) slightly overstate his dominance compared to the calculated probability (96%).
• Jaime Faria’s implied probability (7.14%) is consistent with his extremely low likelihood of an upset.

Value Opportunity:

1. Set Betting:
   • Novak Djokovic 3-0 at 1.33 is a conservative but highly probable outcome.
2. Handicap Betting:
   • Djokovic (-9.5 Games) at 1.91 offers decent value for those confident in his ability to dominate Faria.
3. Speculative Play:
   • Over 27.5 games at 1.75 could hold slight value if Faria can stretch a set beyond expectations (e.g., a 7-5 or 7-6 set).

Recommendation:

• Risk-averse bettors: A safe bet on Novak Djokovic 3-0 at 1.33 or Under 27.5 Games at 2.00.
• Speculative bettors: Consider Over 27.5 Games at 1.75 for value, or a small punt on Jaime Faria (+9.5 Games)at 1.80 if you anticipate a surprise fight from the underdog.

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Arthur Cazaux vs Jacob Fearnley

Wednesday, January 15, 2025 3:15 AM

Predicted Final Score

Win Percentages

 

The Betting Edge:

• Bookmakers’ odds imply a higher confidence in Fearnley (59.88%), which aligns closely with the calculated probability (58%).
• Arthur Cazaux is overvalued slightly by the bookmaker (45.45% implied vs 42% calculated).

Value Opportunity:

1. Set Winner or Exact Set Bets:
   • Fearnley 3-0 at 3.50 offers decent value considering his consistency on hard courts.
2. Game Total (Over 37.5):
   • At 1.75, this is a fair value bet in a match likely to involve several close sets.
3. Speculative Play:
   • A small wager on Arthur Cazaux 3-1 at 5.75 could pay off if Fearnley falters in extended play.

Recommendation:

• Risk-averse bettors: Consider a safer handicap bet on Jacob Fearnley (-1.5 sets) at 1.80, reflecting his steadiness and recent form.
• Speculative bettors: Opt for Cazaux 3-1 at 5.75 or Over 37.5 Games at 1.75 for potentially higher payouts.

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Jack Draper vs Thanasi Kokkinakis

Wednesday, January 15, 2025 7:15 AM

Predicted Final Score

Win Percentages

 

The Betting Edge:

• Jack Draper: Bookmaker’s implied probability (68.49%) slightly exceeds our calculated probability (64%), indicating limited value.
• Thanasi Kokkinakis: Bookmaker’s odds slightly undervalue him, with an implied probability (37.04%) close to our calculated probability (36%).

Set Betting Odds:

• Draper 3-0 (3.10): Possible value if you expect Draper to dominate with his superior win consistency.
• Kokkinakis 3-1 or 3-2 (7.00): Appealing for risk-takers given his resilience and comeback ability.
• Over 39.5 games (1.80): Reasonable value, reflecting the likelihood of extended sets or tie-break scenarios.

Value Opportunities:

• Jack Draper: Limited value in betting at 1.46, as bookmaker odds closely align with calculated probability.
• Thanasi Kokkinakis: A speculative bet at 2.70 offers potential if you anticipate an upset or another tight match.

Set Total Bets:

• Over 39.5 games (1.80): Good value, as both players tend to play matches with high game totals.
• Draper (-3.5 games) (1.83): Offers moderate value if you expect Draper to win decisively but not in straight sets.

Recommendation:

• • Risk-Averse Bettors: Avoid betting heavily, as Draper’s odds offer limited upside and Kokkinakis is an uncertain underdog.
  • Speculative Bettors: Consider a small bet on Thanasi Kokkinakis (2.70) if you expect a close contest or an upset. Alternatively, Over 39.5 games (1.80) provides good value for a likely extended match.

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