Melbourne Cup Tips 2024
The 2024 Melbourne Cup is here!
The track is going to be good and the rail is out 2m for the entire circuit.
You can find our Melbourne Cup Tips below, and if you’re having sweep, you can download our Melbourne Cup Sweep here.
This year’s Melbourne Cup has turned into quite the spectacle, with several key contenders either scratched or failing to make the final cut. But the show must go on, and we’re determined to find the winner.
Top Selection: #13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR impressed with a dominant performance in his first Australian start at Geelong. Carrying just 51kg after his Geelong Cup victory penalty, he is well-positioned to take advantage, the step up in distance won’t be an issue, and his strong turn of foot gives him an edge. After assessing the field, i can’t seem to shake him from the mantle.
Other Notable Contenders:
- SEA KING: A standout performer in the Bendigo Cup, SEA KING is set to run a strong race with minimal weight. Lightly raced, the barrier draw presents a slight challenge.
- WARP SPEED: Back at his preferred distance and racing on firm ground, WARP SPEED looks poised for a significant improvement. He’s worth including in your multiples at an attractive price.
- VAUBAN & ABSURDE: You can’t overlook the Mullins-trained raiders, particularly VAUBAN, though his odds are tight. At this price, we’re willing to pass.
- CIRCLE OF FIRE: Although recent form may not jump off the page, this horse has been targeted for the Cup. With the smart stable behind him and Mark Zahra, last year’s Melbourne Cup-winning jockey, in the saddle, he’s worth considering.
- KOVALICA: Prepared by the ever-reliable Chris Waller, KOVALICA comes into this race with clear intent. Damian Lane booked, expect a solid performance.
- ZARDOZI: Taking a page from the late Bart Cummings’ playbook, ZARDOZI is backing up quickly from Derby Day. Lightly raced and full of potential, he’s a serious threat.
Top Tip: #13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
Top 4 Numbers: 13 – 14 – 15 – 5
Roughies to Consider: 3 – 4
I will be making a betting book around the top 4 numbers.
Good luck finding your winner in this year’s Cup!
Raffle.
Please yourself.
Tempo/speed: Solid 🔥
PLYMOUTH looks the easy bet here.
Has been screaming out to get out to this distance.
Gun jock in Shinn in the saddle, form in behind Treasurethemoment who won well on Derby Day
We were on OPENING ADDRESS last start and he can run well again.
HOT MAJESTY is extremely over the odds and is an easy small bet to have.
Numbers: 8 – 2 – 9 – 4
Tempo/speed: Above Average – Average
Looks a cracking bet here does CLOUDLAND
Should be able to put this field away quite easily i feel.
But it is Cup Day, GREY NORTHERN could be a swing for the fences.
RIOT & ROSE looks suited.
Numbers: 4 – 3 – 13 – 1
Tempo/speed: Above Average
Like ALDOLFITO here back to the 1000m
Forgiving of the last start run where i don’t think he was suited in the conditions behind LOFTY ARCH.
The other Moody runner in the field leave me cautious to bet small here.
DUBLIN DOWN looks to be over the odds and the booking of Zac Purton screams intent here 3rd up.
Numbers: 3 – 18 – 13 – 1
Tempo/speed: Below Average
Waller import KINESIOLOGY could be anything.
Going to take a chance on the stable mate MR WATERVILLE with Jmac on.
Little tune up race last start in preparation for this.
ROARING ENGINE has exactly that and can run well at a big price.
Numbers: 4 – 8 – 3 – 9
Tempo/speed: Average – Above
APULIA was enormous last start on his way to this.
Screaming out for further so the step in distance here is going to suit.
Pretty keen here and does look one of the better bets on the program.
Numbers: 8 – 10 – 9 – 11
Tempo/speed: Average – Above
Interesting race this, Giving BOSUSTOW a massive chance here.
Love the fact that Jmac is taking the ride. Interesting to see he’s not riding EXTREMELY HARDYS.
Could be because EH was scratched from Derby Day so a late inclusion.
Either way, has to be respected also. Has done nothing wrong and could get the favours on speed.
Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 9
Tempo/speed: Above Average
No firm opinion here. Looks a really tough race.
KONASANA looks set to run a race here from the waller stable
Numbers: 4 – 3 – 8 – 11
Tempo/speed: Average – Above
WARNIE to bowl one straight into the bookmakers wickets in the get out stakes.
Has been put on ice since his impressive win at Flemington over 1200m.
The freshen up and up to the 1400m is going to suit.
Keen.
Numbers: 12 – 10 – 13 – 3
Quaddie Bet
Finding the winner of the Melbourne Cup
1. Form and Lead-Up Races
- Key Lead-Up Races: Look out for horses that perform well in lead-ups like the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Geelong Cup. Good results in these races show the horse is in top form and can handle the pressure. Horses from overseas have been doing well too, so check out runners with strong form in races like the English St. Leger or the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
- Race Fitness: A Cup contender usually has about three or four runs under their belt by November. This keeps them fit but not worn out. Check the recent performances over longer distances to see if they’re primed and ready.
2. Handicap Weight
- Sweet Spot for Weight: The Melbourne Cup is a handicap race, so horses carry different weights based on their past performance. Winners often carry between 53–55 kg, enough weight to reflect their ability without overloading them.
- Lightweight Contenders: If a horse is lightly weighted but has shown strong form in staying races, they might have an edge. Look for runners on the rise, especially young horses yet to be heavily penalised by the handicapper.
3. Barrier Draw Matters
- Prime Barriers (5–12): Horses drawn in the middle tend to have the best chance. A middle barrier allows flexibility, letting horses get a good spot in the pack without getting stuck inside or having to sprint wide early.
- Watch the Wide Draw: While it’s possible to win from an outside barrier, it’s harder. Horses out wide have to work harder to get a spot or risk getting caught up in the back of the field.
4. Trainer and Jockey Expertise
- Look for the Legends: Trainers like Gai Waterhouse, Chris Waller, and international names like Aidan O’Brien are Cup specialists. They know how to get a horse in top shape for the 3200m distance.
- Experienced Jockeys: The Melbourne Cup is no ordinary race, so look for jockeys with long-distance experience. Those who’ve ridden in previous Cups or in other major staying races tend to have an edge, especially if they know the Flemington track well.
5. Track Conditions and Weather
- Track Preferences: Check the weather and track conditions for Cup day. Some horses prefer a firm track, while others perform better on softer going. If it’s looking like rain, stick with runners who have proven form on a softer track.
- Versatile Runners: Horses that handle different track conditions are often safer bets, as Melbourne’s weather can be unpredictable on race day.
6. Previous Melbourne Cup Performers
- Cup Experience Counts: Horses that have run well in previous Melbourne Cups (even without winning) can be worth backing. They’ve shown they can handle the distance, pressure, and noise of the massive crowd.
- Long-Distance Form: Horses with a good record over distances like 2800m–3200m are usually better prepared to handle the Melbourne Cup. Make sure they’ve proven their stamina.
7. Breeding for Staying Races
- Stamina Bloodlines: European and Japanese bloodlines are known for producing strong stayers, so keep an eye on runners from these regions. Horses from families with a reputation for long-distance racing are more likely to handle the 3200m Cup distance.
- Success Over 2400m+ Distances: Horses with wins or placings over 2400m or longer tend to do well in the Cup. If they’ve proven they can stay the distance, they’re worth a look.
8. Late Money and Market Moves
- Watch the Odds Late: Sharp punters and insiders often know when a horse is in with a real chance. If you see significant late money for a horse, especially one with strong form and a good weight, it could be a hot tip.
- Consistent Backing: Horses with steady support from punters over the weeks leading up to the Cup are often reliable, especially if they’re sitting at the shorter end of the odds.
9. Fairytale Factor
- The Melbourne Cup has a way of producing memorable fairytale wins. Sometimes, it’s the local favourite or the plucky underdog with a story that comes out on top. If you have a gut feeling about a horse with a good story or a local connection, it’s worth a punt – that’s all part of the Cup magic.
Combining these tips gives you a better chance of finding the winner. Just remember, the Melbourne Cup is a one-of-a-kind race – a mix of preparation, skill, and a bit of luck can go a long way on the first Tuesday in November.
Melbourne Cup Sweep
Looking for a free downloadable and printable copy of the 2024 Melbourne Cup Sweep? No problem!
We have a free cup sweep kit available for everyone to use free of charge which you can find below.
