Melbourne Cup Tips 2024

The 2024 Melbourne Cup is only a week away, and the race is changing shape by the day.

Only just this morning has it been revealed that the favourite Jan Brueghel has been scratched on vets advice.

Does Via Sistina head there after her dominant Cox Plate victory?

You can find our early Melbourne Cup Tips below, (note these tips can change as we edge closer)

Tuesday, November 5, 2024, 3:00 PM, 3200m race @ Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne

Top Tip

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR was dominant in his first Australian outing at Geelong.

Gets in with only 51kg after the penalty for winning the Geelong Cup.

With the favourite now out this only improves his chances dramatically.

The extra trip in distance won’t be an issue at all and looks to have a great turn of foot.

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR @ NEDS

Roughie

He can improve sharply back on top of the ground.

Forgive the Caulfield Cup run.

This is his pet distance and as long as the deck is dry, he will stay all day.

WARP SPEED @ NEDS

Smokey (needs to make field)

Has been bolting in his past runs where he has faced some bad luck.

If he can get into the final field he will be a massive danger.

BRAYDEN STAR @ NEDS

Finding the winner of the Melbourne Cup

Finding the Melbourne Cup winner is a time-honoured tradition, and there’s an art to it that goes well beyond just reading the form guide. Here’s a guide for Aussies looking to pick the Melbourne Cup champion:

1. Form and Lead-Up Races

Key Lead-Up Races: Look out for horses that perform well in lead-ups like the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Geelong Cup. Good results in these races show the horse is in top form and can handle the pressure. Horses from overseas have been doing well too, so check out runners with strong form in races like the English St. Leger or the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Race Fitness: A Cup contender usually has about three or four runs under their belt by November. This keeps them fit but not worn out. Check the recent performances over longer distances to see if they’re primed and ready.

2. Handicap Weight

Sweet Spot for Weight: The Melbourne Cup is a handicap race, so horses carry different weights based on their past performance. Winners often carry between 53–55 kg, enough weight to reflect their ability without overloading them.
Lightweight Contenders: If a horse is lightly weighted but has shown strong form in staying races, they might have an edge. Look for runners on the rise, especially young horses yet to be heavily penalised by the handicapper.

3. Barrier Draw Matters

Prime Barriers (5–12): Horses drawn in the middle tend to have the best chance. A middle barrier allows flexibility, letting horses get a good spot in the pack without getting stuck inside or having to sprint wide early.
Watch the Wide Draw: While it’s possible to win from an outside barrier, it’s harder. Horses out wide have to work harder to get a spot or risk getting caught up in the back of the field.

4. Trainer and Jockey Expertise

Look for the Legends: Trainers like Gai Waterhouse, Chris Waller, and international names like Aidan O’Brien are Cup specialists. They know how to get a horse in top shape for the 3200m distance.
Experienced Jockeys: The Melbourne Cup is no ordinary race, so look for jockeys with long-distance experience. Those who’ve ridden in previous Cups or in other major staying races tend to have an edge, especially if they know the Flemington track well.

5. Track Conditions and Weather

Track Preferences: Check the weather and track conditions for Cup day. Some horses prefer a firm track, while others perform better on softer going. If it’s looking like rain, stick with runners who have proven form on a softer track.
Versatile Runners: Horses that handle different track conditions are often safer bets, as Melbourne’s weather can be unpredictable on race day.

6. Previous Melbourne Cup Performers

Cup Experience Counts: Horses that have run well in previous Melbourne Cups (even without winning) can be worth backing. They’ve shown they can handle the distance, pressure, and noise of the massive crowd.
Long-Distance Form: Horses with a good record over distances like 2800m–3200m are usually better prepared to handle the Melbourne Cup. Make sure they’ve proven their stamina.

7. Breeding for Staying Races

Stamina Bloodlines: European and Japanese bloodlines are known for producing strong stayers, so keep an eye on runners from these regions. Horses from families with a reputation for long-distance racing are more likely to handle the 3200m Cup distance.
Success Over 2400m+ Distances: Horses with wins or placings over 2400m or longer tend to do well in the Cup. If they’ve proven they can stay the distance, they’re worth a look.

8. Late Money and Market Moves

Watch the Odds Late: Sharp punters and insiders often know when a horse is in with a real chance. If you see significant late money for a horse, especially one with strong form and a good weight, it could be a hot tip.
Consistent Backing: Horses with steady support from punters over the weeks leading up to the Cup are often reliable, especially if they’re sitting at the shorter end of the odds.

9. Fairytale Factor

The Melbourne Cup has a way of producing memorable fairytale wins. Sometimes, it’s the local favourite or the plucky underdog with a story that comes out on top. If you have a gut feeling about a horse with a good story or a local connection, it’s worth a punt – that’s all part of the Cup magic.

Combining these tips gives you a better chance of finding the winner. Just remember, the Melbourne Cup is a one-of-a-kind race – a mix of preparation, skill, and a bit of luck can go a long way on the first Tuesday in November.