Rosehill Race Tips & Analysis for September 14, 2024

Distance: 1400m | Class: G3 3YO | Tempo: Abv Avg

MAYFAIR has been scratched from the Run To The Rose for this race, despite drawing better, and I really hope its because they think they are a winning chance.

His third-up run behind STORM BOY was very good as he didn’t get to dictate like usual, but still chased hard, and was even strong through the line, giving me the indication that he should be able to handle the step up to 1400m.

He would be at peak fitness now, and gets a chance to lead with no STORM BOY in his way. He does have to give weight to his rivals, and rightly so, as he has the best form out of the lot. Tim Clark has ridden him in 2 of his 3 starts, and being the best front running rider, he will ensure MAYFAIR gets a breather throughout.

If there is any on-pace bias, it will only enhance his chances.

Selections: #1 MAYFAIR

Distance: 1200m | Class: G2 3YO   | Exp Tempo: Abv Avg

His first-up run was outstanding, and really said to the world “I’M BACK”!

He was dominant in his three length victory in the San Domenico Stakes, putting the field to the sword very early on.

There is a lot more speed to contest with here which could be an issue, but he does have the fitness to be able to handle extra pressure, unlike his rivals. Outside of leading, he has shown he can sit outside the lead, but is yet to show the world he can chase successfully, which I wonder if they will sit third and chase ANODE and BUSTLING, or ANODE takes a sit and he sits outside BUSTLING. Hopefully Hyeronimus doesn’t get into a speed battle up front, as it might bring him undone.

Regardless of everything, if he is to win the Golden Rose later in the preparation, he needs to be handling a field like this.

Selections: #2 STORM BOY

Distance: 1300m | Class: G2 3YO+ | Exp Tempo: Avg

Two bet play for me here, hoping for a couple of scratchings and it covers me depending on the bias.

REDIENER is a massive price for a horse who has won first-up in the past, winning the Group 3 Bill Ritchie, before winning the Group 1 Epsom the start after. He finished the preparation poorly in the King Charles, but he was found to be slow to recover, so it is a forgive run.

He has had two decent trials on the way into this and from the draw, he could get into a nice spot with a positive ride by Josh Parr. He is definitely worth the throw at the stumps, especially if they are running on.

WHINCHAT will need two scratchings to get in, but if he does, he carries very little weight from a decent draw, and will likely push to lead at all costs, which will be beneficial if there is on-pace bias. His first-up record is good, and I reckon he will be ready to go, if he gets a run.

Selections: #2 REDIENER & #15 WHINCHAT

Leg 1: 1, 4

Leg 2: 1, 2, 4

Leg 3: 1, 2, 6, 15

Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 14