NRL Betting Tips Finals Week 2

2024 NRL Semi Finals

The 2024 NRL Semi Finals kick off with an exciting lineup featuring the Cronulla Sharks taking on the North Queensland Cowboys, at Allianz Stadium on Friday night followed by the Roosters and the Sea Eagles on Saturday once again at Allianz.

Sharks vs Cowboys

Friday, September 20, 2024

7:50 PM @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney

The Sharks will be looking to take a bite out of the Cowboys this weekend as they head to Allianz Stadium on Friday night.

Final Scores

Sharks

34 : 17

Cowboys

Win Percentages

Sharks 57.19%

Cowboys 42.81%

Sharks

Cowboys

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Cronulla Sharks set at $1.60, and $2.30 for the North Queensland Cowboys, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Sharks: 59.48%
Cowboys: 40.52%

This equates to a 32.08% higher chance of the Panthers winning.

We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season, this resulted in the following probability:

Sharks 54.9%
Cowboys 45.1%

Currently the odds for North Queensland are slightly undervalued by the bookmakers and Cowboys should actually be closer to $1.60, this presents a value opportunity for a North Queensland bet.

Winning Margin Probabilities

Cronulla Sharks to win by 1-12

30.13%

Cronulla Sharks to win by 13+

28.63%

North Queensland Cowboys to win by 1-12

25.33%

North Queensland Cowboys to win by 13+

15.90%

Historically when playing each other the Sharks and the Cowboys total score surpasses the 45.5 total points so an OVER bet is recommended.

Semi Finals Injuries

Half-time/Full-time Probabilities

Cronulla Sharks / Cronulla Sharks

39.06%

North Queensland Cowboys / North Queensland Cowboys

25.02%

North Queensland Cowboys / Cronulla Sharks

11.44%

Cronulla Sharks / North Queensland Cowboys

8.66%

Draw / Cronulla Sharks

5.72%

Draw / North Queensland Cowboys

3.81%

Cronulla Sharks / Draw

2.35%

North Queensland Cowboys / Draw

2.35%

Draw / Draw

1.57%

Anytime Goal Scorers

Cronulla Sharks	North Queensland Cowboys
Ronaldo Mulitalo – 1.70 58.82%	Kyle Feldt – 1.70 58.82%
Sione Katoa – 1.80 55.56%	Murray Taulagi – 2.25 44.44%
Briton Nikora – 2.45 40.82%	Valentine Holmes – 2.45 40.82%
Braydon Trindall – 2.55 39.22%	Jeremiah Nanai – 2.50 40.00%
William Kennedy – 2.90 34.48%	Scott Drinkwater – 2.90 34.48%

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Sharks 26.5, Cowboys 27.4 – (Cowboys by 0.9 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Sharks 18.7, Cowboys 23.4 – (Sharks by 4.7 points)
Current Form: Sharks WWLWL, Cowboys LWWWW – (Cowboys streak 4 wins)
Completion Rate: Sharks 78%, Cowboys 78% – (Even)
Tackle Efficiency: Sharks 87.5%, Cowboys 86.8% – (Sharks by 0.7%)
Wins This Season: Sharks 64% (16/25), Cowboys 64% (16/25) – (Even)
Points Scored This Season: Sharks 663, Cowboys 685 – (Cowboys by 22 points)
Points Conceded This Season: Sharks 468, Cowboys 584 – (Sharks by 116 points)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Cowboys won by 8 points (30-22) on 27th July 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Sharks 87.5%, Cowboys 85.7% – (Sharks by 1.8%)
HT/FT Double: Sharks 28%, Cowboys 48% – (Cowboys by 20%)

Suggested Betting Tip:

Sharks to win by 13+ 1-12 @ $3.05 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 45.5 @ $1.85 with
bet365

Same Game Multi:

Sharks 13+

Total Points: OVER 45.5

HT/FT Double: Sharks/Sharks

Highest Scoring Half: Second

Total: $10.31 with Bet365

Roosters vs Sea Eagles

Saturday, September 21, 2024

7:50 PM @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Pecking their way into the Semi Finals, the Roosters will be playing the Sea Eagles this Saturday night, will the Sea Eagles be able to swoop in from above and take the win, or will the Roosters have their little dinosaur talons planted too firmly into the ground?

Final Scores

Roosters

22 : 18

Sea Eagles

Win Percentages

Roosters 56.985%

Sea Eagles 43.015%

Roosters

Eagles

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Sydney Roosters set at $1.62, and $2.30 for the Manly Sea Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Roosters: 58.67%
Sea Eagles: 41.33%

This equates to a 45.88% higher chance of the Storm winning.

Roosters: 55.3%
Sea Eagles: 44.7%

Currently the odds for Manly are slightly undervalued by the bookmakers and Sea Eagles should actually be closer to $24, this presents a value opportunity for a Manly bet.

Winning Margin Probabilities

Sydney Roosters to win by 1-12

29.68%

Sydney Roosters to win by 13+

27.35%

Manly Sea Eagles to win by 1-12

26.13%

Manly Sea Eagles to win by 13+

16.84%

Historically when playing against each other the Roosters and the Sea Eagles total score is 5.5 points lower than the total points 46.5 so an UNDER bet is recommended.

Semi Finals Injuries

Half-time/Full-time Probabilities

Sydney Roosters / Sydney Roosters

37.80%

Manly Sea Eagles / Manly Sea Eagles

27.09%

Manly Sea Eagles / Sydney Roosters

11.21%

Sydney Roosters / Manly Sea Eagles

9.03%

Draw / Sydney Roosters

5.42%

Draw / Manly Sea Eagles

4.27%

Sydney Roosters / Draw

2.63%

Manly Sea Eagles / Draw

2.39%

Draw / Draw

1.00%

Anytime Try Scorers

Sydney Roosters	Manly Sea Eagles
Dominic Young 60.98%	Tom Trbojevic 50.51%
Daniel Tupou 55.56%	Tommy Talau 50.51%
James Tedesco 48.78%	Lehi Hopoate 49.50%
Joseph Manu 37.74%	Tolutau Koula 36.36%
Angus Crichton 35.71%	Reuben Garrick 34.48%

Head-to-Head Stats:

Average Points For Per Match: Roosters 29.9, Sea Eagles 26.3 – (Roosters by 3.6 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Roosters 19.7, Sea Eagles 21.7 – (Roosters by 2 points)
Current Form: Roosters WWLWL, Sea Eagles WLWLW – (Both inconsistent)
Completion Rate: Roosters 79%, Sea Eagles 78% – (Roosters by 1%)
Tackle Efficiency: Roosters 87.5%, Sea Eagles 86.2% – (Roosters by 1.3%)
Wins This Season: Roosters 64% (16/25), Sea Eagles 56% (14/25) – (Roosters by 8%)
Points Scored This Season: Roosters 748, Sea Eagles 658 – (Roosters by 90 points)
Points Conceded This Season: Roosters 493, Sea Eagles 543 – (Roosters by 50 points)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Roosters won by 4 points (34-30) on 27th July 2024
Reliability to Win After Leading HT: Roosters 88.2%, Sea Eagles 69.2% – (Roosters by 19%)
HT/FT Double: Roosters 60%, Sea Eagles 36% – (Roosters by 24%)