We analysed 3,041 AFL games and betting data over the last 15 years. The following are our findings.
- 3041 games analysed.
- Finals & regular home and away season.
- June 2009 – June 2024.
- For betting analysis, we simulated a unit of $1.00
It’s not Collingwood that chokes the most – it’s Melbourne.
Let’s face it, we all love to get stuck into the magpies for choking. Heck, it’s nearly a national pastime.
So we decided to take a look at teams who lost when they were the strong favourites (Less than $1.50 odds)
When we look at the data we can see that the Demons have the top score, losing 33.7% of the games they should have won.
The baggers closely followed them with an unenviable record of 29.6% of games lost when they should have won.
| Strong Favourite Team | Total Games | Games Lost | Loss Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 95 | 32 | 33.70% |
| Carlton | 81 | 24 | 29.60% |
| Essendon | 75 | 20 | 26.70% |
| Gold Coast | 34 | 9 | 26.50% |
| Adelaide | 114 | 30 | 26.30% |
So who can you bank on as a favourite?
So who can we rely on to win when they are the strong favourites? In short, it’s the West Coast Eagles.
They may not be at the peak of their powers right now, but over the last 15 years, they have only lost 14.5% of the time when they were the strong favourites.
Also an honourable mention to Freo who only lost 16.9% of the time. It must be something in the water over west… Or just an overpowered home-ground advantage. You decide…
| Strong Favourite Team | Total Games | Games Lost | Loss Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast | 117 | 17 | 14.50% |
| Fremantle | 89 | 15 | 16.90% |
| Hawthorn | 144 | 26 | 18.10% |
| GWS Giants | 81 | 16 | 19.80% |
| Collingwood | 148 | 30 | 20.30% |
So who is the most profitable AFL team to bet on?
We simulated a $1 bet on every game for every team. Not surprisingly, none of these will make you rich.
The number 1 team was Collingwood, returning a total profit of $6.10 over the last 15 years.
Following closely behind them in 2nd spot, the Swannies returned a total profit of $5.80.
| Team | Total Profit | Total Games | Total Wins | Total Losses | Total Draws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | $ 6.10 | 357 | 217 | 134 | 6 |
| Sydney | $ 5.80 | 355 | 218 | 134 | 3 |
| Geelong | $ 0.36 | 361 | 246 | 112 | 3 |
| Hawthorn | $ (5.20) | 349 | 201 | 144 | 4 |
| Fremantle | $ (13.51) | 341 | 172 | 166 | 3 |
Who is the least profitable AFL team to bet on?
There are no surprises here – the least profitable team to bet on would have been the Gold Coast Suns with a total loss of $73.34.
The next worst team to bet on would have been North Melbourne with a total loss of $64.29.
| Team | Total Profit | Total Games | Total Wins | Total Losses | Total Draws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast | $ (73.34) | 295 | 85 | 208 | 2 |
| North Melbourne | $ (64.29) | 335 | 132 | 201 | 2 |
| Adelaide | $ (54.56) | 339 | 166 | 171 | 2 |
| Melbourne | $ (51.01) | 338 | 147 | 188 | 3 |
| Carlton | $ (50.84) | 336 | 140 | 193 | 3 |
Which team has the strongest home-ground fortress advantage?
When it comes to profit, Geelong at the cattery has been the most profitable bet with a total profit of $23. (This is largely attributed to their incredible 13 game winning streaks in 2009, and 2011, followed by a 16 game winning streak in 2022).
Hawthorn and the Bombers also get a nod returning a total profit of $18.96, and $9.42 respectively, while the Dockers were the only other team to return a profit with $1.72.
Unfortunately for Dees supporters, Melbourne at the MCG faired worst with a total loss of -$33
| Home Team | Total Games | Total Wins | Win Percentage | Total Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong | 185 | 150 | 81% | $ 23.02 |
| Hawthorn | 173 | 119 | 69% | $ 18.96 |
| Essendon | 164 | 83 | 51% | $ 9.42 |
| Fremantle | 172 | 104 | 60% | $ 1.72 |
| Adelaide | 172 | 100 | 58% | $ (2.71) |
| Richmond | 174 | 102 | 59% | $ (5.41) |
| Western Bulldogs | 168 | 94 | 56% | $ (6.57) |
| Port Adelaide | 172 | 102 | 59% | $ (7.99) |
| Brisbane | 174 | 95 | 55% | $ (8.97) |
| St Kilda | 168 | 84 | 50% | $ (9.37) |
| GWS Giants | 139 | 73 | 53% | $ (10.25) |
| West Coast | 176 | 108 | 61% | $ (11.06) |
| Collingwood | 181 | 113 | 62% | $ (12.32) |
| Gold Coast | 150 | 60 | 40% | $ (13.51) |
| Sydney | 177 | 111 | 63% | $ (16.27) |
| North Melbourne | 161 | 73 | 45% | $ (19.60) |
| Carlton | 165 | 70 | 42% | $ (26.76) |
| Melbourne | 170 | 78 | 46% | $ (33.73) |
Who is the strongest on the road?
Great teams can win on the road. The Sydney Swans have consistently shown this, winning more times than the game odds suggest with a total profit of $22. followed closely by the Collingwood Magpies at $18.42.
Unfortunately the rest of the teams resulted in losses when playing away from home.
As for the worst, the Gold Coast Suns have consistently struggled playing away from home with a total loss of -$59
| Away Team | Total Games | Total Wins | Win Percentage | Total Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 178 | 107 | 60% | $ 22.07 |
| Collingwood | 176 | 104 | 59% | $ 18.42 |
| Fremantle | 169 | 68 | 40% | $ (15.23) |
| West Coast | 168 | 67 | 40% | $ (15.91) |
| Melbourne | 168 | 69 | 41% | $ (17.28) |
| Richmond | 170 | 79 | 46% | $ (17.43) |
| Port Adelaide | 167 | 75 | 45% | $ (19.54) |
| Western Bulldogs | 178 | 81 | 46% | $ (21.53) |
| GWS Giants | 150 | 58 | 39% | $ (22.40) |
| Geelong | 176 | 96 | 55% | $ (22.66) |
| Carlton | 171 | 70 | 41% | $ (24.08) |
| Hawthorn | 176 | 82 | 47% | $ (24.16) |
| Essendon | 170 | 65 | 38% | $ (31.61) |
| St Kilda | 171 | 68 | 40% | $ (32.13) |
| Brisbane | 167 | 55 | 33% | $ (35.55) |
| North Melbourne | 174 | 59 | 34% | $ (44.69) |
| Adelaide | 167 | 66 | 40% | $ (51.85) |
| Gold Coast | 145 | 25 | 17% | $ (59.83) |
Summary
We analysed all teams across all the basic factors and nothing was profitable enough to be excited about.
This shows that most of the time, the odds themselves (the market) have it right most of the time.
To get an edge in your AFL betting you need to go much deeper than the basics to find yourself meaningful profit.
Transparency
For this analysis, we sourced AFL betting data from Betfair’s AFL odds history database from June 2009 to June 2024. We simulated placing a $1.00 bet on each match using the closing odds. The simulation accounted for changes in line movement and market liquidity to reflect the most accurate odds available before each game.
